Here is proof that line shopping is very important

Iceman · Oct 24, 2007

Thought this was very interesting: I estimated I made between 4,000-5,000 baseball bets this year. If on average my plays were 5 cents better than a guy who played at 1 book and he played all the exact plays I did this baseball season, my +80 units I won would be -20 units or so for him. If 50% of my plays were winning favoirtes or losing dogs that wouldnt effect anything but if 50% were losing favorites or winning dogs (averaging 5 cents difference in price than my plays) than over 2,000 plays would have a 5 cents difference.

This is also a moneyline sport where most dont even put line shopping into use as much as pointspread sports and I am saying that i am getting 5 cents better on average when in reality it probably is higher.

On another note: I am not sure exactly how to figure this out but I may have been able to bet the EXACT OPPOSITE SIDES as I did and still come ahead if I bet them at the exact price but opposite, so if I bet a +130 dog but instead bet the favorite at -130.

Now dont get me wrong as handicapping is very important but line shopping is way more important in THE BIG SCOPE OF THINGS.

I have been talking with a newbie bettor alot lately and he wants to always discuss teams and handicapping 10X more than finding good numbers. He only sees that 5 games out of 100 that the extra point or so wins and he doesnt think it means much. I try and stress to him that is what seperates the winners from the losers at this.

Thought my above example was pretty interseting. The problem is most people just dont look at it this way and are more concerned with one game and winning it.

Doug · Oct 24, 2007

It's important, but also pretty much undoable anymore. You can't have 20 outs like before, if you do, then you have funds at extremely risky books.

You have to concentrate more on picking winners than shopping lines now, IMO.

WVU · Oct 24, 2007

A wise man once said points don't matter (much)

hola

WVU · Oct 24, 2007

You made ~4500 baseball bets and are only 80 units ahead? That seems like an awful lot of work for little return. I hope you are at least automated.

BadCo · Oct 24, 2007

Doug said:
It's important, but also pretty much undoable anymore. You can't have 20 outs like before, if you do, then you have funds at extremely risky books.

You have to concentrate more on picking winners than shopping lines now, IMO.

Not only do you have to jump through hoops to withdraw from square books that you get heavy on you have to jump through hoops to get money in some of these places.

I heard from a friend,BetEd so I registered and the only way to get money in is scan this and scan that.

I said fuck that,that and I have a 40+ hour a week job and kids,wife,dogs.

So being chained to the computer is not an option for most.

Maybe by the time I retire neteller will be back?

BetIt · Oct 24, 2007

yeah sometimes the 5% or so advantage you get from a book for their lines isn't really worth it if there is a 5-10% chance you get stiffed.

trytrytry · Oct 24, 2007

its so true ICE...and the exchanges have helped many get better prices. that and slow moving books or slow moving locals.

Doug · Oct 24, 2007

WVU said:
You made ~4500 baseball bets and are only 80 units ahead? That seems like an awful lot of work for little return. I hope you are at least automated.

That doesn't sound bad ! If 1 unit = $1,000 then you made more than most people do in a year, just on baseball season.

trytrytry · Oct 24, 2007

Doug said:
That doesn't sound bad ! If 1 unit = $1,000 then you made more than most people do in a year, just on baseball season.

80 units on 4000 wagers is fine fine fine... for ICE id say all were slight positive expecation wagers so its more of a grind. like compounding interest as bankroll increases the wager amounts can increase as well (if these books allow you to stay)

jjgold · Oct 24, 2007

99% of players do not have the time to line shop also line shopping is relative to the time you placed your wager. There are tons of people that bet blindly and just bet the line at the right time and ended up with the best line.

WVU · Oct 24, 2007

Doug said:
That doesn't sound bad ! If 1 unit = $1,000 then you made more than most people do in a year, just on baseball season.

yeah but you will have rolled through 4.5 million in wagers to make that 80 grand. On second thought that is not too bad considering you are making 1.78% on each wager. Not bad at all actually.

Iceman · Oct 24, 2007

WVU said:
You made ~4500 baseball bets and are only 80 units ahead? That seems like an awful lot of work for little return. I hope you are at least automated.

not great and a little below my normal expectations but it is close to a 2% ROI. A little over 53.5 against -110 lines is what it is equal to. I shoot for 3% ROI monthly.

Like Doug said it adds up fast. Throw in the leverage angle that I dont have $600,000 to invest but with the leverage that sports allows I can put $600,000 into play for the summer on just baseball by betting nightly (and dont forget the WNBA, NBA, NFL, CFB all where in there also).

Last summer I bet baseball everyday and didnt do that great at it but this summer I said I would stick it out till the end. I am very happy with my results. Throw in the fact the stuff I learned and got pretty good at. I expect to double that for next season and be closer to 4% ROI.

For October I am at close to 4.5%-5% for the month. The problem has been finding plays this month, the slowest month of the year.

Iceman · Oct 24, 2007

jjgold said:
99% of players do not have the time to line shop also line shopping is relative to the time you placed your wager. There are tons of people that bet blindly and just bet the line at the right time and ended up with the best line.

Right and that is why most lose. Not trying to come off cocky but that is my point. People need to spend less time capping and more time shopping, funding and learning how to time the market. It can be done.

A fellow poster who bets the exact same way I do made a great point once when he said "I really dont even know the names of the teams I am betting". I feel the same way. I cant even remember who I bet last nite to be truthfull.

Now most are right this may be to much for the average Joe to do but I am just pointing out this should be where you spend most or at least a higher pct of your time than capping. It pays off.

WVU · Oct 24, 2007

Iceman said:
not great and a little below my normal expectations but it is close to a 2% ROI. A little over 53.5 against -110 lines is what it is equal to. I shoot for 3% ROI monthly.

Like Doug said it adds up fast. Throw in the leverage angle that I dont have $600,000 to invest but with the leverage that sports allows I can put $600,000 into play for the summer on just baseball by betting nightly (and dont forget the WNBA, NBA, NFL, CFB all where in there also).

Last summer I bet baseball everyday and didnt do that great at it but this summer I said I would stick it out till the end. I am very happy with my results. Throw in the fact the stuff I learned and got pretty good at. I expect to double that for next season and be closer to 4% ROI.

For October I am at close to 4.5%-5% for the month. The problem has been finding plays this month, the slowest month of the year.

Very impressive Iceman. 4% ROI for baseball would be extraordinary. I don't think anyone can claim to do that over extended play. Good luck although it looks like you have factored luck out of the equation.
:103631605

MrJ · Oct 24, 2007

You made ~4500 baseball bets and are only 80 units ahead? That seems like an awful lot of work for little return. I hope you are at least automated.

That would double a bankroll using 1% per wager

The problem has been finding plays this month, the slowest month of the year.

Can't wait for basketball to start up.

Iceman, does your return include arbing or just straight bets? I'm pretty happy with the way my straight bets went although I only bet half the volume I had intended. Very disappointed with my lack of effort in scalping though

D2bets · Oct 24, 2007

Iceman said:
On another note: I am not sure exactly how to figure this out but I may have been able to bet the EXACT OPPOSITE SIDES as I did and still come ahead if I bet them at the exact price but opposite, so if I bet a +130 dog but instead bet the favorite at -130.

Ice, that makes no sense. If you made +80 units, then if you had bet the exact opposite on every play at the exact same price (i.e. -130 instead of +130) then you would be exactly -80 units. Of course that is your book(s)' situation. They had the xact opposite of you at the same price -- you won 80 and they lost the 80. Congrats.

MrJ · Oct 24, 2007

Yes Ice your suggestion there doesn't make sense. That said, I'm sure had I bet the opposite side of all of my bets - providing I bet at the right time - I would should a profit. I believe that both sides can present good bets in most events, just at different times.

Iceman · Oct 24, 2007

Mr J said:
Yes Ice your suggestion there doesn't make sense. That said, I'm sure had I bet the opposite side of all of my bets - providing I bet at the right time - I would should a profit. I believe that both sides can present good bets in most events, just at different times.

I am saying if I bet a game that was lined -120/+110 and bet it at +120 or -110 I would be ahead no matter who I bet after 500 bets or so like this. Right?

Does that make sense? If you were able to bet the complete opposite team but at the other end of the spectrum you would still be up.

That is what I meant. So basically if you were to take every game I bet and added 10 cents on the other side i would still show a profit. Do you think that is right? I would say yes and if so I think it proves my line shopping point more.

mj23 · Oct 24, 2007

Iceman said:
Right and that is why most lose. Not trying to come off cocky but that is my point. People need to spend less time capping and more time shopping, funding and learning how to time the market. It can be done.

A fellow poster who bets the exact same way I do made a great point once when he said "I really dont even know the names of the teams I am betting". I feel the same way. I cant even remember who I bet last nite to be truthfull.

Now most are right this may be to much for the average Joe to do but I am just pointing out this should be where you spend most or at least a higher pct of your time than capping. It pays off.

Well said!!

Anonymous1 · Oct 24, 2007

I understand your theory, but in my mind its all about timing. Nobody is good enough to know where an opening line is going at one book, much less the 5 to 10 needed to "shop", if not more. Much in the fashion of para mutual wagering, you bet a nag at 3-1 and it goes off at 9-5. You have no control over the end odds. My guess is that you likely get somewhere near 50% better numbers at the large amount of wagers you make and that the % drops off significantly as your wager numbers drop. To me, its only a best or better number if it goes the way you think it should, if not, then the other side should be just as good.