Is the poisson theory an effective means of increasing ones bankroll?

TheWolf · Oct 25, 2007

In other words, does it work? and Can it stand the test of time?

ganchrow · Oct 25, 2007

The Wolf said:
In other words, does it work? and Can it stand the test of time?

Are you perhaps referring to the utilization of the Poisson distribution in the evaluation of certain classes of prop bets?

DrunkenHorseplayer · Oct 25, 2007

No it doesn't; no it can't.

TheWolf · Oct 25, 2007

Yes. For game totals too in select sports. Has anyone tried this with any degree of success?

mamatried · Oct 25, 2007

No. it doesn't work. I have tried a similar system that I devised myself. There are too many variables on any particular sporting event for it to work. For example, the size of the umpire's strike zone or the tendency of a referee to call fouls (even if it isn't Tim Donaghy). The specific matchups - key defensive player vs. key offensive player. The specific game plan of the teams. The flow and circumstances of the game. (e.g.., if a QB's team gets a big lead, the team may stop passing and concentrate on ball control.)

And besides, the linemakers know everything that you know, and alot more about the aforementioned variables.

Bottom line - forget it.

Mopisgood · Oct 25, 2007

mamatried said:
No. it doesn't work. I have tried a similar system that I devised myself. There are too many variables on any particular sporting event for it to work. For example, the size of the umpire's strike zone or the tendency of a referee to call fouls (even if it isn't Tim Donaghy). The specific matchups - key defensive player vs. key offensive player. The specific game plan of the teams. The flow and circumstances of the game. (e.g.., if a QB's team gets a big lead, the team may stop passing and concentrate on ball control.)

And besides, the linemakers know everything that you know, and alot more about the aforementioned variables.

Bottom line - forget it.

Someone forward this post to Ace Ace :missingte

TheWolf · Oct 25, 2007

Wong's book, Sharp Sports Betting is a waste of money then for the veteran sports bettor. The only thing that was worthwhile was the poisson theory, which I figured was debunkable by what mamatried said.