Where is the correlation??

steak tartar said:

AND BEST ONE IS IF YOUR GUY has ark total then fire away -24 1/2 to over 30 1/2 fla in +24 1/2 un 30 1/2

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Fat Tony said:

I looked at that game and similar situations this current year and I've seen dog and over when it's that tight to the total.

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steak tartar said:

can be sure more likely the two scenarios i proposed ark and under is out unless 27-0 28-0 or 30-0........that is what gives these a monster edge over time..............usually fav and under is eliminated dog and over possible but not strong

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Fat Tony said:

Tell me if this is stupid logic. We both know that fav and under is almost impossible which leaves three possible combos: Dog/Under, Dog/Over, Fav and Over. Since over is in two of the three possible scenarios, why wouldn't I just take over in the first half of that game? I think that's more of an advantage then parlaying.

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Doug said:

No, the over/under is still close to 50%. If you looked at games with big lines, I'm sure it would historically hit somewhere near 50%.

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Fat Tony said:

I'm talking about compared to the same game parlay.


(By the way, the total just went up 2 1/2 pts)

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OccamsRazor said:

"I can bet correlated parlay in college football and in hockey and I don't see where I have an advantage".

You don't have an advantage. Waste of time... Think about it logically. If you can hit at least 53% of your Side bets, you grind it out sipping Cognac with a good Cigar. If you can't hit 53% of your side bets, then the slippery slope of looking for the gold starts with correlated bets that get you involved in 3 to 1 or 4 to 1 against if ties lose scenerios.

Even bettors that hit 53% know that betting correlated plays hurt the bottom line in the long run.

Reminds me of the old joke, A guy calls up his degenerate buddy and says, "Listen in the game today between SC and Oregon, bet Oregon. My brother is the ref, my third cousin is the line judge. They just called me the fix is IN bet as much as you can on Oregon Its a lock, it will not lose . Spread it around, as many books as you can bet the limits!!!" The degenarate buddy replies, " Great, should I parlay it with the OVER or the UNDER?"

hno:

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Doug said:

I'd say the parlays that you can't bet anywhere like -41 and over 65, have a huge edge, thus they are not allowed.

The way to do it is to make up some conditions first ( like line of 17 or more), then go back and test it over several years worth of games. Do the same with the total only.

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Fat Tony said:

They haven't had an edge this year.

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