5 NFL Best Bets and one Strong Opinion
Rotation #209 Denver (+3) 3-Stars at +3 (-120 odds or less), 2-Stars from down to +1.
Rotation #214 Pittsburgh (-9 1/2) 2-Stars at -10 points or less.
Rotation #215 St. Louis (+11 1/2) 3-Stars at +10 or more, 2-Stars down to +7 1/2 points.
Rotation #223 Cincinnati (+4) 4-Stars at +3 or more, 3-Stars down to +1.
Rotation #230 Arizona (-1) 3-Stars at -1 or better, 2-Stars from -1 1/2 to -3.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #233 San Francisco (+10) Strong Opinion at +8 or more.
4 Star Selection
****Cincinnati 28 BALTIMORE (-4.0) 21
01:05 PM Pacific, 11-Nov-07
My math model has made a habit of picking against the Bengals this season (with good results), but last week’s predictable loss at Buffalo may have finally caused the line to catch up with the fact that Cincinnati is a below average team. What the oddsmakers haven’t quite discovered yet is that Baltimore is even worse. The problem with Cincinnati is a horrible defense that has allowed 6.2 yards per play to teams that would combine to average only 5.3 yppl against an average team. Baltimore’s offense, however, has averaged only 4.5 yppl this season (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and they are still 0.9 yppl worse than average with Steve McNair in the game (Kyle Boller has only been slightly worse). The match-up between Baltimore’s bad offense and Cincy’s bad defense is a toss-up and the Ravens only averaged 4.8 yppl in their week 1 loss at Cincinnati. Normally the Ravens would make up for their bad offense with a great defense and the Ravens appeared to have another great defense in their first 2 games, allowing just 4.4 yppl to the Bengals and Jets. However, All-Pro CB Samari Rolle was injured in week 2 and has missed 4 of 6 games since. The other star corner Chris McAlister missed one game that Rolle played in and was on the sidelines with Rolle last week while Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger averaged 8.4 yards per pass play. The Ravens can still stop the run (3.0 ypr allowed), but their opponents have averaged 7.5 yards per pass play in the 5 games in which either Rolle or McAlister missed, compared to the 5.6 yppp allowed when both played. Rolle is expected to miss this game and McAlister couldn’t finish practice on Thursday and is questionable. Baltimore’s defense is 0.3 yppl better than average for the season, but the Ravens are 0.3 yppl worse than average without both star cornerbacks playing. Cincinnati has averaged 5.8 yppl this season against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team and Carson Palmer will pick the Raven’s injury ravaged secondary apart. Palmer may even be helped by the return of big play receiver Chris Henry, whose 8 game suspension is over. Henry made it tough for opponents to double team both Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh and averaged 8.1 yards per pass thrown to him last season, which is considerably better than the pathetic 6.2 ypa that the Bengals 3rd and 4th receivers have averaged so far this year. Without even factoring in Henry’s return the Bengals have a 0.9 yppl advantage over the Ravens’ defense without Rolle (and probably without McAlister). Baltimore has a 1.9 points edge in special teams, but my math model favors Cincinnati by 1 ½ points in this game. In addition to the line value the Bengals apply to a very strong 47-7-1 ATS subset of a 76- 22-4 ATS situation while Baltimore applies to a negative 33-71-2 ATS situation. The record is 9-1 ATS when both of those situations apply to the same game (the only loss by just 2 points) and I’ll take Cincinnati in a 4-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 3-Stars as a dog of less than 3 points.
3 Star Selection
***Denver 21 KANSAS CITY (-3.0) 16
10:00 AM Pacific, 11-Nov-07
Denver has been horrible lately and they hit rock bottom last week in a 7-44 loss at Detroit. The Broncos are now just 1-7 ATS this season, but teams that are 2-6 or worse against the spread in the first half of the season are pretty good bets in the second half of the season as the line adjusts. The Broncos’ offense hasn’t been quite as good without WR Jevon Walker the last 5 games and the loss of C Tom Nalen has hurt the rushing attack the last 3 games. Even after making adjustments for those injuries I still rate the Broncos attack at 0.2 yards per play better than average with Jay Cutler in the game (he missed most of last week’s loss after getting sacked in the first quarter but is listed as probable for this game). Kansas City’s defense is only 0.1 yppl better than average for the season after getting beaten for 433 yards at 7.1 yppl last week by Green Bay, so the Broncos have a slight advantage when they have the ball. Denver’s defense has also been a problem, allowing 6.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team, but the Chiefs’ offense is 0.9 yppl worse than average (4.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and will be without RB Larry Johnson this week. Johnson has averaged only 3.5 ypr this season behind a bad offensive line and with teams stacked to stop him, so I don’t expect Priest Holmes to do any better (although I didn’t downgrade the Chiefs’ rushing attack either). Denver actually has a 0.2 yppl advantage against the Chiefs’ horrible offense. Kansas City does have an advantage in projected turnovers, but my math model favors the Chiefs by only 2 points in this game and Denver applies to a very strong 68-16-1 ATS bounce-back situation while Kansas City applies to a negative 26-86 ATS situation. Those two angles actually overlap quite a bit and the record is 22-4 ATS for the road team when they do both apply to the same game, including 17-0 ATS since 1992. I’ll take Denver in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (-115 odds or better) and for 2-Stars if they’re a dog of less than 3 points (or at +3 at -120 odds or higher).
3 Star Selection
***St. Louis 22 NEW ORLEANS (-11.5) 23
10:00 AM Pacific, 11-Nov-07
The Rams are 0-8 straight up and 1-7 ATS with their only spread win coming by just ½ a point. New Orleans made it to the NFC Championship game last season and appears to be back in top form with 4 straight wins after starting the season 0-4. Nobody would want to take the Rams under those circumstances and the oddmakers know it. To compensate for the fact that nobody wants to bet the Rams or bet against the Saints the oddsmakers have inflated the pointspread on this game and I have no problems taking the woeful Rams in this situation. Winless teams are usually very good bets as underdogs against mediocre teams, as 0-5 teams or worse are 79-38-3 ATS as underdogs against teams with a win percentage of less than .750. The Rams have failed in that role 3 times this season, but this time they qualify in a 40-11-2 ATS subset of that angle and this time the line value is clearly in their favor. St. Louis played better offensively before their bye week, averaging 6.1 yards per play against the Browns with Marc Bulger looking like Marc Bulger (310 yards on 36 pass plays). I actually don’t expect Bulger to suddenly be great again and the Rams offense is still 0.6 yards per play worse than average for the season (4.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team). That unit is actually 0.5 yppl worse than average with Bulger in the lineup and they’ll have another chance to look good against a bad defensive team, just as they did in week 8 against the Browns. While the Saints do look close to last year offensively in recent weeks, they are not close to being as good overall as they were a year ago because their defense is horrible. The Saints were only slightly worse than average defensively last season but they’ve allowed 5.9 yppl this season to a schedule of teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team. The pass defense is the worst I’ve seen in years (7.6 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would combine to average just 5.7 yppp against an average team) and that unit just gave up 344 aerial yards at 9.8 yppp to Jaguars’ backup quarterback Quinn Gray, who had previously been horrible. The Rams’ offense actually has an advantage over the Saints’ defense in this game, which is rare for a double-digit dog. New Orleans has improved offensively in recent weeks, but the Saints are still just 0.2 yppl better than average on the attack side of the ball this season while the Rams are only 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team). The difference is not necessarily Drew Brees, who has completed a career best 67% of his passes, but the receiving corps. Brees’ receivers have not been as good this season as teams can now double team Marques Colston without having to worry about getting beaten by Pro Bowl receiver Joe Horn, who is now in Atlanta. Colston averaged a very good 14.8 yards per catch last season but has averaged just 11.5 ypc this year and Brees has averaged a pathetic 9.7 yards per completion this year because the receivers haven’t been able to get open deep (12.4 ypc last year). The offense has looked better the last two weeks because Brees has completed 75% of his passes – a rate that he is unlikely to continue. The rushing attack has averaged just 3.8 yards per rush and the Saints’ offense would only be 0.5 yppl better than average if I used Brees’ two year passing numbers instead of just this season. So, even if the passing attack is indeed back to being good the Saints are still 0.3 yppl worse than average overall from the line of scrimmage (+0.5 on offense and -0.8 on defense) and they have bad special teams too. My math model only favors New Orleans by 6 points and that number would be 7 ½ points if I used Brees’ two year pass rating instead of just this season. Not only is there plenty of line value on the side of the Rams but their bye week allowed them to get healthier and to refocus themselves. Bad teams that enter their bye week on a losing streak often come out of the bye week playing much better and with renewed enthusiasm. In fact, winless teams are 20-3 ATS as an underdog or pick after their bye week with the 3 spread losses coming by just 1 point, 1 point and 1 ½ points. New Orleans managed to cover last week despite a horrible defensive performance, but the Saints are just 2-8 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more under coach Sean Payton, including 1-4 ATS this season. I’ll take St. Louis in a 3-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more and for 2-Stars from +9 ½ points to +7 ½ points.
3 Star Selection
***ARIZONA (-1.0) 28 Detroit 19
01:15 PM Pacific, 11-Nov-07
The only difference between these two teams this season has been turnover differential (Detroit is +8 and Arizona is -9) and that discrepancy is not something that is likely to continue. Detroit may be 6-2 but the Lions are really just an average team that has been helped by turnovers. The Lions have been 0.3 yards per play better than average on offense (5.7 yppl with Kitna in the game against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), 0.1 yppl worse than average on defense (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team) and 1.2 points worse than average in special teams. Arizona is 3-5 but the Cardinals are also an average team that has been hurt by turnovers. The Cardinals have actually out-gained their opponents 5.3 yppl to 5.0 yppl this season against teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl and allow 5.0 yppl to an average team. The Cardinals are actually 0.7 yppl better than average offensively with Kurt Warner at quarterback instead of injured Matt Leinart, as Leinart was 0.9 yards per pass play worse than average (5.4 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) while Warner has been 1.3 yppp better than average (7.1 yppp against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp). Some of those numbers were enhanced when Warner came in off the bench and ran the comeback offense from the shotgun formation against teams playing prevent defenses, but Warner has been 1.2 yppp better than average in his two starts (6.3 yppp on the road against very good Washington and Tampa Bay defenses that would combine to allow 5.1 yppp at home to an average QB). Arizona is a better overall team from the line of scrimmage than Detroit and the turnovers should be about even in this game given that Kitna and Warner have about the same lifetime interception rate and fumbles are 90% random in the NFL. My math model favors Arizona by 3 ½ points in this game and the Cardinals apply to a 48-12-1 ATS home bounce-back situation that is based on their two road losses. Detroit has allowed just 7 points in each of their last two games despite having a slightly worse than average defense for the season. That high level of defense is unlikely to continue, however, as teams that allow less than 10 points in consecutive games are 42% ATS over the last 28 years in their next game and Detroit applies to a 31-86 ATS subset of that general situation. The Lions also haven’t played as well on the road as they have at home under coach Rod Marinelli and they’re just 2-8 ATS on the road under Marinelli when not getting at least 10 points and 1-3 ATS on the road after a win. Detroit has always been bad on the road after a win (39- 60-2 ATS) and even worse off back-to-back wins (12-28-1 ATS, including 1-10-1 ATS recently, 0-1 this year with a 21-56 loss at Philly). I’ll take Arizona in a 3-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and I’ll make the Cardinals a 2-Star Best Bet from -1 ½ to -3 points.
2 Star Selection
**PITTSBURGH (-9.5) 33 Cleveland 16
10:00 AM Pacific, 11-Nov-07
Cleveland is now 5-2 straight up and 6-1 ATS with Derek Anderson as the starting quarterback but the 6 teams that the Browns covered against are all at .500 or worse and have a combined record of 12-36 while they were blown out by 17 points at New England and lost 7-34 at home to the Steelers in week 1 when Anderson took over in the quarterback spot in the middle of the game. Beating bad teams does not prepare you to compete with the likes of New England or Pittsburgh and the Steelers offense should take advantage of a bad Cleveland defense (5.9 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average defense) while Pittsburgh’s stingy defense (4.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl) slows down a good Browns’ attack that is 1.1 yppl better than average with Anderson at the helm. There isn’t any line value in this game, but Pittsburgh applies to a 74-25-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator, a 162-92-8 ATS statistical profile indicator and a 63-25-4 ATS statistical profile indicator that pegs them as having the statistical characteristics of a team that should cover as a big home favorite. That has certainly been the case this season, as Pittsburgh is 4-0 ATS at home (all as big favorites) with all 4 victories being by 21 points or more. I’ll take Pittsburgh in a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less.
Strong Opinion
San Francisco 16 SEATTLE (-10.0) 20
05:30 PM Pacific, 12-Nov-07
San Francisco is the 2nd worst team in the NFL, but the Niners aren’t so bad that they can’t cover as a double-digit dog against a sub-par Seattle team in a negative situation. Seattle has been solid defensively, allowing 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team, but the Seahawks have been 0.2 yppl below average on offense (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and they’re even worse without WR Deion Branch in the lineup the last 3 games (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team). Branch will probably miss this game too, or not be 100% if he does play. What makes Branch important is that he’s averaged 9.5 yards per pass thrown to him while the 3 other receivers taking his place combine to average just 5.9 yards per pass attempted. Branch had 36 passes thrown to him in 5 games and those 7.2 attempts are now resulting in 3.6 yards less per throw, which is 25.9 yards per game, 0.7 yards per pass play and 0.4 yppl – which equates to about 2 points per game. My math model favors the Seahawks by 8 ½ points without Branch playing and by 10 ½ points if he is 100% healthy. The Niners apply to a very good 226-109-9 ATS contrary indicator while Seattle applies to a negative 33-89-1 ATS situation that is based on their bad defense last week. I should probably make the Niners a Best Bet based on the good technical support and a bit of line value, but I simply don’t trust them enough. I will consider San Francisco a Strong Opinion in this game at +8 points or more.
Rotation #209 Denver (+3) 3-Stars at +3 (-120 odds or less), 2-Stars from down to +1.
Rotation #214 Pittsburgh (-9 1/2) 2-Stars at -10 points or less.
Rotation #215 St. Louis (+11 1/2) 3-Stars at +10 or more, 2-Stars down to +7 1/2 points.
Rotation #223 Cincinnati (+4) 4-Stars at +3 or more, 3-Stars down to +1.
Rotation #230 Arizona (-1) 3-Stars at -1 or better, 2-Stars from -1 1/2 to -3.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #233 San Francisco (+10) Strong Opinion at +8 or more.
4 Star Selection
****Cincinnati 28 BALTIMORE (-4.0) 21
01:05 PM Pacific, 11-Nov-07
My math model has made a habit of picking against the Bengals this season (with good results), but last week’s predictable loss at Buffalo may have finally caused the line to catch up with the fact that Cincinnati is a below average team. What the oddsmakers haven’t quite discovered yet is that Baltimore is even worse. The problem with Cincinnati is a horrible defense that has allowed 6.2 yards per play to teams that would combine to average only 5.3 yppl against an average team. Baltimore’s offense, however, has averaged only 4.5 yppl this season (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and they are still 0.9 yppl worse than average with Steve McNair in the game (Kyle Boller has only been slightly worse). The match-up between Baltimore’s bad offense and Cincy’s bad defense is a toss-up and the Ravens only averaged 4.8 yppl in their week 1 loss at Cincinnati. Normally the Ravens would make up for their bad offense with a great defense and the Ravens appeared to have another great defense in their first 2 games, allowing just 4.4 yppl to the Bengals and Jets. However, All-Pro CB Samari Rolle was injured in week 2 and has missed 4 of 6 games since. The other star corner Chris McAlister missed one game that Rolle played in and was on the sidelines with Rolle last week while Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger averaged 8.4 yards per pass play. The Ravens can still stop the run (3.0 ypr allowed), but their opponents have averaged 7.5 yards per pass play in the 5 games in which either Rolle or McAlister missed, compared to the 5.6 yppp allowed when both played. Rolle is expected to miss this game and McAlister couldn’t finish practice on Thursday and is questionable. Baltimore’s defense is 0.3 yppl better than average for the season, but the Ravens are 0.3 yppl worse than average without both star cornerbacks playing. Cincinnati has averaged 5.8 yppl this season against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team and Carson Palmer will pick the Raven’s injury ravaged secondary apart. Palmer may even be helped by the return of big play receiver Chris Henry, whose 8 game suspension is over. Henry made it tough for opponents to double team both Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh and averaged 8.1 yards per pass thrown to him last season, which is considerably better than the pathetic 6.2 ypa that the Bengals 3rd and 4th receivers have averaged so far this year. Without even factoring in Henry’s return the Bengals have a 0.9 yppl advantage over the Ravens’ defense without Rolle (and probably without McAlister). Baltimore has a 1.9 points edge in special teams, but my math model favors Cincinnati by 1 ½ points in this game. In addition to the line value the Bengals apply to a very strong 47-7-1 ATS subset of a 76- 22-4 ATS situation while Baltimore applies to a negative 33-71-2 ATS situation. The record is 9-1 ATS when both of those situations apply to the same game (the only loss by just 2 points) and I’ll take Cincinnati in a 4-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 3-Stars as a dog of less than 3 points.
3 Star Selection
***Denver 21 KANSAS CITY (-3.0) 16
10:00 AM Pacific, 11-Nov-07
Denver has been horrible lately and they hit rock bottom last week in a 7-44 loss at Detroit. The Broncos are now just 1-7 ATS this season, but teams that are 2-6 or worse against the spread in the first half of the season are pretty good bets in the second half of the season as the line adjusts. The Broncos’ offense hasn’t been quite as good without WR Jevon Walker the last 5 games and the loss of C Tom Nalen has hurt the rushing attack the last 3 games. Even after making adjustments for those injuries I still rate the Broncos attack at 0.2 yards per play better than average with Jay Cutler in the game (he missed most of last week’s loss after getting sacked in the first quarter but is listed as probable for this game). Kansas City’s defense is only 0.1 yppl better than average for the season after getting beaten for 433 yards at 7.1 yppl last week by Green Bay, so the Broncos have a slight advantage when they have the ball. Denver’s defense has also been a problem, allowing 6.2 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team, but the Chiefs’ offense is 0.9 yppl worse than average (4.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and will be without RB Larry Johnson this week. Johnson has averaged only 3.5 ypr this season behind a bad offensive line and with teams stacked to stop him, so I don’t expect Priest Holmes to do any better (although I didn’t downgrade the Chiefs’ rushing attack either). Denver actually has a 0.2 yppl advantage against the Chiefs’ horrible offense. Kansas City does have an advantage in projected turnovers, but my math model favors the Chiefs by only 2 points in this game and Denver applies to a very strong 68-16-1 ATS bounce-back situation while Kansas City applies to a negative 26-86 ATS situation. Those two angles actually overlap quite a bit and the record is 22-4 ATS for the road team when they do both apply to the same game, including 17-0 ATS since 1992. I’ll take Denver in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more (-115 odds or better) and for 2-Stars if they’re a dog of less than 3 points (or at +3 at -120 odds or higher).
3 Star Selection
***St. Louis 22 NEW ORLEANS (-11.5) 23
10:00 AM Pacific, 11-Nov-07
The Rams are 0-8 straight up and 1-7 ATS with their only spread win coming by just ½ a point. New Orleans made it to the NFC Championship game last season and appears to be back in top form with 4 straight wins after starting the season 0-4. Nobody would want to take the Rams under those circumstances and the oddmakers know it. To compensate for the fact that nobody wants to bet the Rams or bet against the Saints the oddsmakers have inflated the pointspread on this game and I have no problems taking the woeful Rams in this situation. Winless teams are usually very good bets as underdogs against mediocre teams, as 0-5 teams or worse are 79-38-3 ATS as underdogs against teams with a win percentage of less than .750. The Rams have failed in that role 3 times this season, but this time they qualify in a 40-11-2 ATS subset of that angle and this time the line value is clearly in their favor. St. Louis played better offensively before their bye week, averaging 6.1 yards per play against the Browns with Marc Bulger looking like Marc Bulger (310 yards on 36 pass plays). I actually don’t expect Bulger to suddenly be great again and the Rams offense is still 0.6 yards per play worse than average for the season (4.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team). That unit is actually 0.5 yppl worse than average with Bulger in the lineup and they’ll have another chance to look good against a bad defensive team, just as they did in week 8 against the Browns. While the Saints do look close to last year offensively in recent weeks, they are not close to being as good overall as they were a year ago because their defense is horrible. The Saints were only slightly worse than average defensively last season but they’ve allowed 5.9 yppl this season to a schedule of teams that would combine to average only 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team. The pass defense is the worst I’ve seen in years (7.6 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would combine to average just 5.7 yppp against an average team) and that unit just gave up 344 aerial yards at 9.8 yppp to Jaguars’ backup quarterback Quinn Gray, who had previously been horrible. The Rams’ offense actually has an advantage over the Saints’ defense in this game, which is rare for a double-digit dog. New Orleans has improved offensively in recent weeks, but the Saints are still just 0.2 yppl better than average on the attack side of the ball this season while the Rams are only 0.2 yppl worse than average defensively (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team). The difference is not necessarily Drew Brees, who has completed a career best 67% of his passes, but the receiving corps. Brees’ receivers have not been as good this season as teams can now double team Marques Colston without having to worry about getting beaten by Pro Bowl receiver Joe Horn, who is now in Atlanta. Colston averaged a very good 14.8 yards per catch last season but has averaged just 11.5 ypc this year and Brees has averaged a pathetic 9.7 yards per completion this year because the receivers haven’t been able to get open deep (12.4 ypc last year). The offense has looked better the last two weeks because Brees has completed 75% of his passes – a rate that he is unlikely to continue. The rushing attack has averaged just 3.8 yards per rush and the Saints’ offense would only be 0.5 yppl better than average if I used Brees’ two year passing numbers instead of just this season. So, even if the passing attack is indeed back to being good the Saints are still 0.3 yppl worse than average overall from the line of scrimmage (+0.5 on offense and -0.8 on defense) and they have bad special teams too. My math model only favors New Orleans by 6 points and that number would be 7 ½ points if I used Brees’ two year pass rating instead of just this season. Not only is there plenty of line value on the side of the Rams but their bye week allowed them to get healthier and to refocus themselves. Bad teams that enter their bye week on a losing streak often come out of the bye week playing much better and with renewed enthusiasm. In fact, winless teams are 20-3 ATS as an underdog or pick after their bye week with the 3 spread losses coming by just 1 point, 1 point and 1 ½ points. New Orleans managed to cover last week despite a horrible defensive performance, but the Saints are just 2-8 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more under coach Sean Payton, including 1-4 ATS this season. I’ll take St. Louis in a 3-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more and for 2-Stars from +9 ½ points to +7 ½ points.
3 Star Selection
***ARIZONA (-1.0) 28 Detroit 19
01:15 PM Pacific, 11-Nov-07
The only difference between these two teams this season has been turnover differential (Detroit is +8 and Arizona is -9) and that discrepancy is not something that is likely to continue. Detroit may be 6-2 but the Lions are really just an average team that has been helped by turnovers. The Lions have been 0.3 yards per play better than average on offense (5.7 yppl with Kitna in the game against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), 0.1 yppl worse than average on defense (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team) and 1.2 points worse than average in special teams. Arizona is 3-5 but the Cardinals are also an average team that has been hurt by turnovers. The Cardinals have actually out-gained their opponents 5.3 yppl to 5.0 yppl this season against teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl and allow 5.0 yppl to an average team. The Cardinals are actually 0.7 yppl better than average offensively with Kurt Warner at quarterback instead of injured Matt Leinart, as Leinart was 0.9 yards per pass play worse than average (5.4 yppp against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) while Warner has been 1.3 yppp better than average (7.1 yppp against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp). Some of those numbers were enhanced when Warner came in off the bench and ran the comeback offense from the shotgun formation against teams playing prevent defenses, but Warner has been 1.2 yppp better than average in his two starts (6.3 yppp on the road against very good Washington and Tampa Bay defenses that would combine to allow 5.1 yppp at home to an average QB). Arizona is a better overall team from the line of scrimmage than Detroit and the turnovers should be about even in this game given that Kitna and Warner have about the same lifetime interception rate and fumbles are 90% random in the NFL. My math model favors Arizona by 3 ½ points in this game and the Cardinals apply to a 48-12-1 ATS home bounce-back situation that is based on their two road losses. Detroit has allowed just 7 points in each of their last two games despite having a slightly worse than average defense for the season. That high level of defense is unlikely to continue, however, as teams that allow less than 10 points in consecutive games are 42% ATS over the last 28 years in their next game and Detroit applies to a 31-86 ATS subset of that general situation. The Lions also haven’t played as well on the road as they have at home under coach Rod Marinelli and they’re just 2-8 ATS on the road under Marinelli when not getting at least 10 points and 1-3 ATS on the road after a win. Detroit has always been bad on the road after a win (39- 60-2 ATS) and even worse off back-to-back wins (12-28-1 ATS, including 1-10-1 ATS recently, 0-1 this year with a 21-56 loss at Philly). I’ll take Arizona in a 3-Star Best Bet at -1 or better and I’ll make the Cardinals a 2-Star Best Bet from -1 ½ to -3 points.
2 Star Selection
**PITTSBURGH (-9.5) 33 Cleveland 16
10:00 AM Pacific, 11-Nov-07
Cleveland is now 5-2 straight up and 6-1 ATS with Derek Anderson as the starting quarterback but the 6 teams that the Browns covered against are all at .500 or worse and have a combined record of 12-36 while they were blown out by 17 points at New England and lost 7-34 at home to the Steelers in week 1 when Anderson took over in the quarterback spot in the middle of the game. Beating bad teams does not prepare you to compete with the likes of New England or Pittsburgh and the Steelers offense should take advantage of a bad Cleveland defense (5.9 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average defense) while Pittsburgh’s stingy defense (4.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl) slows down a good Browns’ attack that is 1.1 yppl better than average with Anderson at the helm. There isn’t any line value in this game, but Pittsburgh applies to a 74-25-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator, a 162-92-8 ATS statistical profile indicator and a 63-25-4 ATS statistical profile indicator that pegs them as having the statistical characteristics of a team that should cover as a big home favorite. That has certainly been the case this season, as Pittsburgh is 4-0 ATS at home (all as big favorites) with all 4 victories being by 21 points or more. I’ll take Pittsburgh in a 2-Star Best Bet at -10 points or less.
Strong Opinion
San Francisco 16 SEATTLE (-10.0) 20
05:30 PM Pacific, 12-Nov-07
San Francisco is the 2nd worst team in the NFL, but the Niners aren’t so bad that they can’t cover as a double-digit dog against a sub-par Seattle team in a negative situation. Seattle has been solid defensively, allowing 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team, but the Seahawks have been 0.2 yppl below average on offense (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and they’re even worse without WR Deion Branch in the lineup the last 3 games (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team). Branch will probably miss this game too, or not be 100% if he does play. What makes Branch important is that he’s averaged 9.5 yards per pass thrown to him while the 3 other receivers taking his place combine to average just 5.9 yards per pass attempted. Branch had 36 passes thrown to him in 5 games and those 7.2 attempts are now resulting in 3.6 yards less per throw, which is 25.9 yards per game, 0.7 yards per pass play and 0.4 yppl – which equates to about 2 points per game. My math model favors the Seahawks by 8 ½ points without Branch playing and by 10 ½ points if he is 100% healthy. The Niners apply to a very good 226-109-9 ATS contrary indicator while Seattle applies to a negative 33-89-1 ATS situation that is based on their bad defense last week. I should probably make the Niners a Best Bet based on the good technical support and a bit of line value, but I simply don’t trust them enough. I will consider San Francisco a Strong Opinion in this game at +8 points or more.
