CBB has been my best sport when it comes to line shopping and finding value. Good luck.
Thanks ICEMAN... just a week in and am very happy about jumping in.
question though on something you have discussed elsewhere:
When you discuss beating a line, yuo often discuss the closing line. I wonder why this is so?
Players that play based on numbers benefit by getting a number that is off the "true" number, whatever that is determined to be. Thus by beating it by enough of an edge should allow you to make a profit by doing nothing more then scooping up value, throw out the teams and just call 1 team team A.... and so on. I understand that. What I am trying to better understand is whether I should be playing trying to beat the opening or closing line.
It is a mathematical fact that 10 years from now beating one or the other will be profitable... there is no denying that. But, which one? Which line is sharper and why? Could both be? Clearly you have seen results over the years that cause you to believe the closing line is the best indicator of a true line. Can you expand any on this?
onto the next question.
I think the answer to the question above is that it does not matter.... but interested to what you have to say. According to you the closing line is sharper, I think. But, does it really matter? The way I see it there is either going to be one side that is incredibly profitable to use as a true line and the other side will not be profitable Or, if the true line lies in the middle of the opening and closing line, by beating either by enough we are gaining enough value to win over time.
You talked alittle about this when discussing scalping, being an overall +ev, thus theorectically both sides are +ev in themselves. Of course one side could be way more +ev and the other not so much on an individual game, but overall +ev. Do you believe the scalpable line on the non-sharp side is profitable at all on its own?
Also, kinda interested in this so doing a really basic tracking of my own on this this year in baskets vs beating the opening/closing spreads. Doing it with actual bets (with just 5 books) and a contest with stale lines. Dont, have much time, but should get an idea over a couple hundred plays.
thanks Ice.