Economic Depression

Dawoofdaddy · Nov 16, 2007

If you dont have a grandparent or other relative alive that lived through and remembers the 1930s.

Soon enough, youll have your own stories someday to tell your kids and grandkids.

Get in the bunker and dont come out for a while until given the "all clear" signal.

Housing and the debt pyramid have been keeping things afloat for a while, but both are imploding now.

The party is over folks.

The economy is toast.

Soumi

Hitman26 · Nov 16, 2007

Big call here. I think and hope you are wrong but I'm not dumb enough to think that you can't be right. I'm assuming you think gold is a good place to be? Where else do you recommend to hide?

Timetopay · Nov 16, 2007

DAWOOFDADDY said:
If you dont have a grandparent or other relative alive that lived through and remembers the 1930s.

Soon enough, youll have your own stories someday to tell your kids and grandkids.

Get in the bunker and dont come out for a while until given the "all clear" signal.

Housing and the debt pyramid have been keeping things afloat for a while, but both are imploding now.

The party is over folks.

The economy is toast.

Soumi

Dawoof me and you keep bumping heads about this same fucking thing.

Why are you doing the rock on guy if the country is going to fall apart.

Just dont understand why it makes you happy.

Dawoofdaddy · Nov 16, 2007

Hitman, food companies and some of the clean/green energy companies should do well along with precious metals.

Also, some of the exporting, commodity-rich, isolated contries like New Zealand should hold up when the US economy tanks.

TTP, you know I dont care whether or not we agree.

When things like real estate and stocks tank, those with any money left have the buying opportunity of a lifetime.

People post all the time about buying low and selling high. Now that I post Im looking for some bargains, its suddenly a bad thing to post?

Wasnt aware that was a "rock-on" and positive thing to post, I think this one will be less confusing.

In case you didnt notice, it has a frown upon its face, but this one below is a happy face.

:dancefool

Hitman26 · Nov 16, 2007

Woofy:

I acutally bought my first solar company stock Wednesday. It's my first energy stock since 2001. I guess it's my "oil is going much higher play" and I need some upside.

FDX cut earnings estimates by 10% because of higher oil prices.

Romanowski · Nov 16, 2007

recession yes

depression no

keep cheering it on I guess

gl

in addition to clean energy Im looking into water desalination companies and technology

Dawoofdaddy · Nov 16, 2007

I also agree that water and water related ideas will be viable investments during the depression.

Romanowski, Im sure you and TTP will be pleased knowing this...before I head to happy hour, Im going to drive trough the estate section of town with a friend to count for sale signs.

In fact, Im leaving now.

:aktion033

8ate · Nov 16, 2007

..

Dorr/Detroit area might be "estate section.."

It is intellectually satisfying to logically infer economically that "things are going to hell-in-a-handbasket"...

Why do you think they call economics the "dismal science"..??

The fact remains there are a lotta economic uncertainties; and the leadership of u.s.a. is very weak.; but, the fact remains that economic activity remains strong, and these developing economies; especially asia, want to participate; there will be massive changes, but i just can't see the whole game dissolving..

jmho..

p.s.

How about throwing us peons a bone; (hot tip) about a specific developing company in viet cong; or thereabouts..

gl

:nopityA:

joelatti · Nov 16, 2007

Woof......Question about gold money.com....Just purchased some gold from there and was wondering why the spread of about $20 dollars an oz on the buy side from the sell side....Is that the standard commission for buying the "physical" gold.
thank you

SportsRadio · Nov 17, 2007

Depression?..lol. Maybe recession. our economy is built via consumer, not credit. If we stop spending then where in trouble, you think fed with let these banks go under, please. I also wouldn't touch gold. Looked what happened when traders thought the dollar reached the bottom. Gold dropped 5.5% and average precious metal fund dropped 8.5% just this week. No major funds hold gold in their portfolio b/c it means nothing, safe haven at best. Can never go wrong with oil (black blood of Alla!)

Ron Paul?..lol..how much is he getting from these kids on the internet?, like 1 mil a day avg.

SportsRadio · Nov 17, 2007

just finished reading "Rigged" about oil trading and some kid from harvard, Arab Sheiks, Dubai etc..was ok

joelatti · Nov 17, 2007

SportsRadio said:
Depression?..lol. Maybe recession. our economy is built via consumer, not credit. If we stop spending then where in trouble, you think fed with let these banks go under, please. I also wouldn't touch gold. Looked what happened when traders thought the dollar reached the bottom. Gold dropped 5.5% and average precious metal fund dropped 8.5% just this week. No major funds hold gold in their portfolio b/c it means nothing, safe haven at best. Can never go wrong with oil (black blood of Alla!)

Ron Paul?..lol..how much is he getting from these kids on the internet?, like 1 mil a day avg.

WOW you wouldn't touch GOLD! Woof and I disagree with you here as I think Gold is worth its weight pun intended.....Dollar is bound for disaster and HAS NOT reached its bottom IMO

SportsRadio · Nov 17, 2007

na not for the ROI. If i thought we were heading towards depression, ya.they really did F*ck up the dollar though but some would say that has helped the markets. all depends on goals, risk etc. 97.5% of American homeowners still pay their mortgage on time....

Dawoofdaddy · Nov 19, 2007

SportsRadio said:
Depression?..lol. Maybe recession. our economy is built via consumer, not credit. If we stop spending then where in trouble, you think fed with let these banks go under, please. I also wouldn't touch gold. Looked what happened when traders thought the dollar reached the bottom. Gold dropped 5.5% and average precious metal fund dropped 8.5% just this week. No major funds hold gold in their portfolio b/c it means nothing, safe haven at best. Can never go wrong with oil (black blood of Alla!)

And where exactly do these consumers you are posting about get their funding to be consumers?

Answer: CREDIT and not savings.

Housing bear market and crash is going to send the American economy into a depression.

My other question for you is who is going to bail out the fed? The market is larger than the players and that includes the fed.

Ill argue that eventually you will touch gold, but more than likely at or very near its top than where it is today.

Thanks for stopping by and hope to see you again.

SSI · Nov 19, 2007

unfortunately i tend to agree with woof on this one....... we are on a slippery slope....

I think buying rental property will be a very good investment in the near future, if not now..

what do you think Woof?

when will the time come to step in and snap up the bargains.... more and more good people will be forced to become renters....

bargains should be readily available......

Dawoofdaddy · Nov 19, 2007

SSI, I dont think real estate (both residental and commercial) is anywhere near a bottom.

There are still too many people talking about buying bargains for this to be a long term bottom.

People will eventually realize that a owner-occupied single family home is a depreciating asset just like owning a car.

SSI · Nov 19, 2007

i agree with that Woof...

i was really talking about the middle to end of 2008.... i was really talking about buying rental property to keep... duplexes and single family homes but not yet..

i know we cant guess a bottom..... i know the rental business will be booming soon, if not already....

Timetopay · Nov 19, 2007

Dawoof - what do you think of buying an RV or House Boat? You think the real estate market will dig that deep?

THANKS!

SportsRadio · Nov 19, 2007

Remember 1990?

When people stop using their house as frickin ATM machines is when we'll see a bottom. RE became a crowded trade and we know what happens then. Value investors will be in heaven the next few years in the market and maybe RE.

ivyconniver · Nov 19, 2007

DAWOOFDADDY said:
People will eventually realize that a owner-occupied single family home is a depreciating asset just like owning a car.

Yes, because that has happened exactly zero times in history over a rolling 20 year period.

The consumer is finally beginning to show signs of weakness, but this is nowhere near a recession yet, let alone a depression. GDP growth is as low as it was back in 2000 (1.5 to 2.0%), but S&P earnings and P/E multiples are in MUCH better shape compared to right before the dislocation of 2001.

This isn't the same era as when your grandpa lost his retirement savings in the 20's. The economy is global now. Subprime losses are priced into the markets now at 20% realized losses, which works out to 60 cents on the dollar and is overly pessamistic and a kneejerk reaction to the fear of the markets.

Buying on fear is the best time to get in. Scared sheep get fleeced.