Huckabee to be the front runner soon

<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="600"><tbody><tr><td><table align="center" border="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td colspan="3" align="center">Iowa Republican Caucus

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</td></tr><tr><td align="center"><table style="border: 1px solid rgb(0, 0, 0);" bordercolor="#ffffff" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" width="603"><tbody><tr><td bordercolor="#000000"><table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="table_header" align="center" height="20">Polling Data</td></tr><tr><td align="center"><table class="poll_table" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#cccc99" width="110">Poll</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccc99" width="80">Date</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccc99">Romney</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccc99">Huckabee</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccc99">Giuliani</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccc99">Thompson</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccc99">McCain</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccc99">Paul</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccc99" width="110">Spread</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffff00">RCP Average</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffff00">11/02 - 11/18</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffff00">27.8</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffff00">20.3</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffff00">13.7</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffff00">11.7</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffff00">6.5</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffff00">4.5</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffff00">Romney +7.5</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">ABC/Wash Post</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">11/14 - 11/18</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">28</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">24</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">13</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">15</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">6</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">6</td><td align="center">Romney +4.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Research 2000</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">11/12 - 11/14</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">27</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">18</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">16</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">10</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">6</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">5</td><td align="center">Romney +9.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">American Res. Group</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">11/10 - 11/14</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">26</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">24</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">11</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">11</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">10</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">3</td><td align="center">Romney +2.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Rasmussen</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">11/12 - 11/12</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">29</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">16</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">15</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">14</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">6</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">4</td><td align="center">Romney +13.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">Strategic Vision (R)</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">11/09 - 11/12</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">30</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">19</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">12</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">11</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">7</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">5</td><td align="center">Romney +11.0</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff">CBS News/NY Times</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">11/02 - 11/12</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">27</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">21</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">15</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">9</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">4</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">4</td><td align="center">Romney +6.0</td></tr><tr><td colspan="9" align="center">See All Iowa Republican Caucus Polling Data</td></tr></tbody></table> <table cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr><td colspan="7" class="table_header" align="center" height="20">Intrade Market Prices for Iowa Republican Caucus</td></tr> <tr> <td align="center"><table class="poll_table" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#cccc99" width="194">
</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccc99">Romney</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccc99">Huckabee</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccc99">Giuliani</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccc99">Thompson</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccc99">McCain</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#cccc99">Paul</td><td bgcolor="#cccc99" width="110">
</td></tr><tr><td align="left" bgcolor="#ffffff" width="194">Intrade Real Time Quotes</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff"> <iframe src="http://www.intrade.com/promo/Affiliates/sites/realclearpolitics.com/mdInfo.jsp?contractId=483496&valueName=lastTradePrice" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" frameborder="0" height="17" scrolling="no" width="35"> </iframe>
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</td><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">(See More Data )</td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>



for those of you that like those intrade lines, lools like you can get a good deal a Paul nowadays. I think they're giving Paul options away.

Saw that.

Paul is dropping like a rock at intrade.

I knew something was strange when tizdoom stopped posting them, so I went and checked...and...whaddaya know.

:lol:

Willie99 said:

for those of you that like those intrade lines, lools like you can get a good deal a Paul nowadays. I think they're giving Paul options away.

Click to expand...

get your facts straight

he's not an option in iowa

he's part of the field

that said the field isn't that high but its not zero

plus volume on the state by state crap is almost nil to begin with

volume on the field is 12 bucks :toast:

REP.IOWA.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to Win M 48.5 50.9 51.0 431 -4.9
REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE
Mike Huckabee to Win M 41.1 49.8 50.0 391 +6.0
REP.IOWA.THOMPSON(F)
Fred Thompson to Win M 1.5 8.9 1.3 155 0
REP.IOWA.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to Win M 3.4 6.4 4.5 301 0
REP.IOWA.MCCAIN
John McCain to Win M 0.2 4.3 1.1 59 0
REP.IOWA.GINGRICH
Newt Gingrich to Win M - 0.1 0.1 0 0
REP.IOWA.HAGEL
Chuck Hagel to Win M - 0.1 0.1 0 0
REP.IOWA.FIELD
Field (any other individual) to Win M 1.3 9.9 1.3 120 0

Tiz, I was just referring to the chart included in my post.

It had Ron Paul's name and a "-" where you list the price.

I'm sorry.

Willie99 said:

Tiz, I was just referring to the chart included in my post.

It had Ron Paul's name and a "-" where you list the price.

I'm sorry.

Click to expand...

yeah well its listed - cause he isn't an option in that particular market

just setting the record straight that's all :toast:

i know you didn't knowingly report him falsely as 0% which you were implying

plus like i stated above that market is useless to reference as volume is under 100 bucks on each candidate

43 bucks traded on mitt, 39 bucks on huckster each number in that market is 10 cent increments on the volume column

What's Paul's overall stock at now, tizdoom?

Care to post a graph? (Not to be gloomy)

:nohead:

6% at intrade still above fred

i'm not for once gonna say he's not a over 10-1 shot to pull it off

well unless his poll numbers really come up before the early primaries

but the chance is there

the hard core support is the wild card in it all

how much is there and will they all show up

and all the other crap i've talked about before

internet/young generation don't have land lines not polled

bringing alot of usual non voters to the polls

bringing alot of non-republicans to the polls

as ron paul said

there is a risk i could win

Whatever you do, DO NOT post this in the Ron Paul forums!

Did someone say 'bear'? :lol:

I like Huckabee...think he has a great narrative but unfortunately there is a lot of opposition research out there on him...he's had some "ethics" problems.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1107/7000.html

not meaning he can't win but this surge is about 4 months too soon..he's peaking way too early....he could just basically hide back before and do his thing but now he's going to be the face of attacks.....which is tough enough when you have the money to combat them...unfortunately, one of mike's weaknesses is his fundraising

if i was a huckabee guy, i'd be much more excited if this was a month from now

it's a case of peaking too early

Joe Contrarian said:

Whatever you do, DO NOT post this in the Ron Paul forums!

Did someone say 'bear'? :lol:

Click to expand...

:lolBIG: good one joe :toast:

BetIt said:

I like Huckabee...think he has a great narrative but unfortunately there is a lot of opposition research out there on him...he's had some "ethics" problems.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1107/7000.html

not meaning he can't win but this surge is about 4 months too soon..he's peaking way too early....he could just basically hide back before and do his thing but now he's going to be the face of attacks.....which is tough enough when you have the money to combat them...unfortunately, one of mike's weaknesses is his fundraising

if i was a huckabee guy, i'd be much more excited if this was a month from now

it's a case of peaking too early

Click to expand...

exactly our iowa guy has said this himself

i wouldn't count us out in iowa this guys track record is good got 2nd with robertson and buchanan in iowa, with 20%+ vote

its all about peaking at the right time

you want the parabolic rise coming after xmas in the case of iowa

hell look what happened to fred

he peaked before he started

:nohead:

Why is RP tanking at intrade, tizdoom?

(And why does my chart keep disappearing?) :WTF:

i dunno cause traders now think he only has a 6% chance?

that's the logical explaination

:lolBIG:

Willies a Huckabot or is he?...lol

I get it now.

Willie's a Care Bear...and we all love him!!

peaked?

this about momentum

since his message actually resonates with his base, and people like him, he's going to surge.

this isn't an NBA game y'know.

Willie99 said:

peaked?

this about momentum

since his message actually resonates with his base, and people like him, he's going to surge.

this isn't an NBA game y'know.

Click to expand...

no willie: unfortunately it is similar to an nba season......

i am not saying he doesn't have a chance to take iowa but sitting back in the polls has a distinct advantage...cause noone attacks you...you can just basically tell your message without ever being on the defense

Huckabee will start to be attacked and quite frankly doesn't have enough money to defend himself

4 weeks too early

If you want to take a look at a perfect example..view Tom Knox in the philly mayors race..peaked 4 weeks too early, got attacked, spent the rest of the campaign defending himself

If he wins Iowa, he will receive press nobody can afford to buy.

He'll climb in the polls and money will poor in.

The base will love his message.

People will love the how easily he stands on his feet and deflects political attacks.

I have a very different opinion as to what will (may) happen.

This path has been taken several times already.

I would vote for Huckabee. He likes to raise taxes which I am for. The club of growth which I hate gave him a D, so that is good. He isnt a baby killer or a mormon which is good.

I think he has a chance, but i do believe he peaked too early....here is what i think is going to happen

a) someone will go negative on him now on substantive issues...he has some questionable ethics probes and other various things in his past

now that isn't that big of a deal but he doesn't have much money to fight back and isn't well known enough to be innoculated from the ads.

If it was 3 weeks instead of 7, the ads wouldn't have as much of an effect and his surge would be timely.

He will continue to surge for another week or two...which (again) would've been perfect a few weeks from now...it will just be too early

Look for him to take the lead in Iowa in the coming weeks but fade towards the end.

That being said, quite a weak field (IMO).....so maybe he will have enough to hold off Iowa and take the momentum from there.