Could this be a reason the ML dropped on the eagles?

cnote · Nov 25, 2007

The saying goes that teams that win outright cover the spread 80+% of the time. Although this year has been a exception as quite a few dogs have cover the line but not won the game.

Could some savvy players deceided tonight to place a equal wager on the eagles ML and the Pats - the points. With this in mind you could think that you have little risk out there with a chance to catch a 20-1 (or more play)

Say if you laid a dime on the eagles ML to win 20,000 and then the Pats -24 for the same dime (or 1,100) one would think you would catch one end of the play to break even or catch the big end for the 20-1. Now I know it would take more than a few dime plays to bump the ML on the eagles down the way it did before kick off. Just a theory I had on this.

SportSavant · Nov 25, 2007

I cant figure out why it dropped, it was +2200, I went to the drugstore and came Back and it was +1300, but the Point spread was still 24.

do you know that 100$ ML parlay with Philly and Miami paid 25 200$ at Greek.

Doug · Nov 25, 2007

Pats by 23 or less, loses both.

very much of a real risk.

cnote · Nov 25, 2007

Doug said:
Pats by 23 or less, loses both.

very much of a real risk.

of course it is a risk. but looking at it as the pats are 9-1 ATS and the winning team covers the spread 80+% of the time I think you can see some good value on breaking even or catching 20-1

Doug · Nov 26, 2007

SportSavant said:
I cant figure out why it dropped, it was +2200, I went to the drugstore and came Back and it was +1300, but the Point spread was still 24.

do you know that 100$ ML parlay with Philly and Miami paid 25 200$ at Greek.

That's a very odd move. Maybe BW hit it hard or a syndicate or some whale ?

wilheim · Nov 26, 2007

As soon as it became official that Donovan McNabb was not going to play the line dropped. A healthy Feely gave the Eagles a much better chance to compete than a crippled McNabb.

wil..

TheWolf · Nov 26, 2007

When was this made official Will? Was the line bet from 17 to 24 or moved there?

wilheim · Nov 26, 2007

The Wolf

When was this made official Will? Was the line bet from 17 to 24 or moved ther

I was talking about the Money line dropping drastically late in the week.

McNabb was questionable from the get go but I don't think he was dropped from the travel squad (meaning definitely out) until sometime on Saturday. Once he was placed on the out-will not travel with team category then it became clear that Feely would definitely get the start and play the whole game if it remained competitive. I can't proove this was the real reason for the Ml to drop so substantially but it's my theory on the reason.

The point spread opened at 17.5 on last Sunday night (BetCRIS) and almost immediately went to the low 20's by Tuesday. I used 21.5 in the BeJmaica contest, posted on Tuesday morning and taken from a consensus of books. They all had lines with either 21, 21.5 or 22 last Tuesday morning.

wil..