I was hoping for more opinions as it would answer some questions to what you see when betting live. Firstly I will take the situation as I saw it, the reason I looked up the live betting at that time was I had bet Dallas and suddenly my nuts started to disappear, a sure sign its time to hedge. I assumed the price would be skinny and wouldnt cost me much negating the downside, I nearly choked when I seen -135 on the screen so instead of hedging I quickly grabbed £200 on Dallas. I think there is no definitive price here as we have seen, its a matter of what people are homing in on and I agree with BetIt that the 3pts is out the window. Personally I would go further and say Dallas would only be interested in running the clock and getting a FG, so to Me the result rested on The Redskins scoring a TD in 2 drives. As I had The Redskins chances of scoring a TD in the game at 14% then on 2 drives its a 28% chance which equates to +260, clearly there's a huge difference in opinions as although betIt and I are on the same wavelength, our prices are a big margin apart.
This brings me to the possible reason We see so many odd prices on live betting, I always assumed it was Idiots with no clue what they were doing. While I price the game up with the end result in mind others may be playing the one drive win or lose. Although scalping drives can be vindicated early in games, in this particular game at the time laying -135 ( though it won) seems folly as a no TD drive would have left the price at +650 upwards. :drink:
This brings me to the possible reason We see so many odd prices on live betting, I always assumed it was Idiots with no clue what they were doing. While I price the game up with the end result in mind others may be playing the one drive win or lose. Although scalping drives can be vindicated early in games, in this particular game at the time laying -135 ( though it won) seems folly as a no TD drive would have left the price at +650 upwards. :drink:
Fresno St -12.5 should ache a few brains in play :missingte seriously though more people should post their thinking regardless if it sounds bad, live betting is the future and while I am 100% sure of my figures, its nice to know what others are thinking and how they come to their reasoning. :drink:
Would have thought you would be a little smarter. Although your percentages of them scoring before the game may or may not be correct, lets say for arguments sake that they are. You are completely neglecting the prevent defense which drastically improves the chance of scoring and you are saying it is exactly the same as a random drive before the game started. Obviously not bright logic.
rail,
I was waiting for someone to come up with that very point.
It was no use me saying it as I have said, I commit to the end result which doesnt cater for prevent or any other system. In the one drive theory your opinion is correct but betting a 14% TD chance even in a Prevent defense at -130 has to be questioned. :drink:
I was waiting for someone to come up with that very point.
It was no use me saying it as I have said, I commit to the end result which doesnt cater for prevent or any other system. In the one drive theory your opinion is correct but betting a 14% TD chance even in a Prevent defense at -130 has to be questioned. :drink:
