If you faded steam and bet all numbers at their apex would you eventually win?

Here is what I have tried to add to what I had been doing successfully for 16 months. I am always looking for more plays and have thought this out long and hard and am now at a crossroads.

Originally what I have tried to do is beat slow moving books before they went to the next number as long as the number had moved enough, some call it the Pinny lean (as I used Pinny as my indicator) and others say it was somewhat chasing steam, bottom line I was just trying to beat thje closing line. I have been able to win at around a 54% clip like clockwork for almost 16 months and had 1 losing month and averaged around 900 plays a month. Overall I have been very happy with this.

I noticed this method working when I first started middling/scalping and I was mainly beating the slow moving books and losing or breaking even at the faster, sharper, buy back books. There was/is little to no handicapping involved. Bets were found any and everywhere such as 1st half totals, halftimes, etc and stuff like that, just not your game sides and totals though those were important.

This hoops season I decided to add something into the mix, which was to almost due the complete opposite of what I started out doing. I would find the settled in opening number (after a few hours of players betting off the opener) and if there was enough line movement throughout the day I would bet against the move. Meaning for example if Miami opened with a total of 208 and the total went up to 212 (ususally looked for 1.5 pts on a side and 2 point movements on a total) I would bet under the best number I could find at one of my 10 books. I would wait late to make these bets almost assuring me I always bet the best number seen all day. I tried to beat the Pinny closing line and with a few reduced juice shops I ususally did or I would catch a better than Pinny number at a book that may have overreacted to the line move.

Here is the problem: I lost doing this. I was still going with the my orginal plan also, which was too beat the slow moving books but if I missed the moves (which happens) I would basically bet against this. Now I only tried this with about 150 bets and I ran right around 50% with it, which A) means nothing in the big scope of things and B) 50% is losing money. Right before every half hour set of tipoffs I looked at the upcoming games and seen if they had moved enough off of their original starting number and than looked to see if I had bet the move earlier in the day and if not now I was loking to reverse it and fade the move. Basically doing the opposite. I did show a small profit with NBA totals but got pounded with NBA and CBB sides (didnt bet if injuries were the cause for line move). Doing this with CBB and all the smart money out there on totals maybe really dumb is something that also scared me.

My theory was shouldnt you win if you almost always get the best number? I have always explained to others that beating the closing line with the Pinny lean squeezes 5 extra wins out 100 that most push and lose on and that is where your edge comes into play. I thought (and still sort of do) that this is the same thing. Betting numbers at their apex should win.

For most that cap their plays this whole thing may be too extreme but it is proven over time that you if you beat the closing line you will win longterm and I have seen it firsthand myself. Now I am not neccessarily beating the closing number by a big enough magin to pull the trigger on this new method but I am always getting the best number and I only bet it if there was enough line movement from the settled in opener. I know this sounds like I am contradicting myself but lets says Miami opens -8 versus Indiana and closes -11. Miami -8 is a good number and Inidana +11 is a good number (I think).

Would love to hear feedback on this. Also would love to speak to someone who has data from past few years that may be able to back test this for me and see if this wins. If there is anyone out there that can help please contact me on this. Basically want to know if I am wasting my time. I will never quit with my Pinny lean and that will always be the focus but beating slow moving steam seems smart and is something I want to add into what I do. Call it the reverse Pinny lean (LOL). The probelm is alot of times you are fading some big line mover type guys, guys that I have witnessed winning for years but hopefully the lines move enough that overall we both win. The scary thing is I have never heard of a book boot someone for fading steam but follow and it you will get someone heat. So maybe I am answering my own question.

I doubt many people will comment about this. I would only do it on larger markets such as NFL and NBA, definitely stay away from CBB totals.

The probelm is alot of times you are fading some big line mover type guys

These guys don't hit 65% longterm, so a good line move will create a position on the opposite side that is profitable.

The scary thing is I have never heard of a book boot someone for fading steam

I would imagine books hate steam simply for the fact that it's hard to keep up. A whole lot of money coming in on one side, I wouldn't like it if I was a book. Someone betting back the other side to offset some of that action? Thanks god.

Now I only tried this with about 150 bets

This makes the loss irrelevant. I suggest that you just track it on paper for a little while.

I am always looking for more plays

Perhaps that aren't that many more plays to be made. There is a limit to how many plays we can make.

Mr J said:

I doubt many people will comment about this. I would only do it on larger markets such as NFL and NBA, definitely stay away from CBB totals.

The probelm is alot of times you are fading some big line mover type guys

These guys don't hit 65% longterm, so a good line move will create a position on the opposite side that is profitable.

The scary thing is I have never heard of a book boot someone for fading steam

I would imagine books hate steam simply for the fact that it's hard to keep up. A whole lot of money coming in on one side, I wouldn't like it if I was a book. Someone betting back the other side to offset some of that action? Thanks god.

Now I only tried this with about 150 bets

This makes the loss irrelevant. I suggest that you just track it on paper for a little while.

I am always looking for more plays

Perhaps that aren't that many more plays to be made. There is a limit to how many plays we can make.

Click to expand...

I may go the paper tracking route but I will surely win if that is the case, LOL. May drop down to a half a unit on these.

I am seeing alot of situations in CBB sides but once again we are fading steam against syndicates and that can be dangerous.

I have gotten pretty good at timing the market and so I feel I am making great plays and in reality that is all you can do.

How do you feel with NBA totals and this?

I think NBA sides can be exploited as the numbers are so tight by this time of the season that you are just playing aginst bad money. What happens is lines that steam it seems some ooks over react and you can catch a decent number before the number spikes back down. Almost like day trading with support and resistence levels, I have read about these in the past.

If you are speaking of beating the closing # at pinnacle by a half point on the square side, I say no it is not profitable after juice. If you are talking about the best # no matter what time of day it is , maybe but that would be very hard data to get.

I made money this baseball season fading line moves (only totals) by just following Pops' thread in the baseball forum.

Pops isn't here anymore but people like Bill Dildeaux and CTP can tell you that fading moves (especially in the NL) was golden.

Way too much thinking and work Ice....stick with the time tested method. Find yourself as many local pigeon books as possible. Add to the mix a couple of friends who wager as well. Hammer the locals with any game that becomes a scalp only...the line must move enough to create a scalp. Don't take the scalp...just play the game with the local pigeon line. Mix in some of your friends bets to throw them off the trail. Eventually you will get booted by the smarter books, but the ride is worth it.

He already does that senditin.

If you are speaking of beating the closing # at pinnacle by a half point on the square side, I say no it is not profitable after juice

It's usually numbers that are "square", not sides.

If you are talking about the best # no matter what time of day it is , maybe

Definitely, not maybe. We're talking about more efficient markets such as the pro's, not the college sports. In the more efficient markets, a volatile market will very likely offer profitable positions on both sides. The key isn't just an apex number, it's getting the apex in a volatile market.

but once again we are fading steam against syndicates and that can be dangerous

Stick to the large, efficient markets, unless of course you are well-informed.

Almost like day trading

More like that than the idea of what most people have of sports betting (handicapping).

First I want to commend your approach and your ongoing research on beating sports betting. As a fundamental Capper, I have done well enough with my approach to keep me from venturing away from my methods and looking to "fix something that isn't broken". But in decades of gambling I have noticed something that has peaked my curiosity:Steam up seems to lose more than it wins. I see it everyday. If a Sports line comes out -4 and moves to -5,-5,' 6, it is indicative of a loser and the reverse is also true! If a line opens up at -5 and goes down to 4', 4, 3' is indicative of a winner. same for Totals! I haven't seriously looked into this phenomenon, but it happens enough that my next step is going to be to call off my bet if the line on the bet I've made goes up. If my line goes down, I have started press my bet in that the market is telling me I'm backing a winner.

Now some of my general theories as to what is happening: 1.The majority of the gamblers in the market are losers. (sorry for the word loser, I don't want to offend anyone. From the numbers that I have seen 85% of the bettors in the market lose. But take heed if you are reading this you are probably in the 15% that cares and works at this) 2.The market is efficient. Thus the market is driven by 85% of the bettors money, losing bettors at that, and is directly reflected in that the flow of money (line up) usually indicates a losing wager and the opposite holds true, line down winner.

I have generalized on the flow of money. The flow includes all; sharp and public. From my computer in Buzzard Breath Wyoming, I have no way of knowing WHO is moving the line just that there is a flow coming in causing the line to rise and it indicates a loser and that the opposite is true.

Question for you Ice, how do you know that the money is syndicate or sharp money? I would think that unless you are sitting on the other side of the counter at the Book, taking in the money, you have no way of knowing if its sharp or public. Not that it matters... just curious.

In summary line moves up: loser. Line moves down: winner.

Of course its not 100% but it appears to be greater than 52.4%.

Just an observation. Track it and see.

OccamsRazor said:

First I want to commend your approach and your ongoing research on beating sports betting. As a fundamental Capper, I have done well enough with my approach to keep me from venturing away from my methods and looking to "fix something that isn't broken". But in decades of gambling I have noticed something that has peaked my curiosity:Steam up seems to lose more than it wins. I see it everyday. If a Sports line comes out -4 and moves to -5,-5,' 6, it is indicative of a loser and the reverse is also true! If a line opens up at -5 and goes down to 4', 4, 3' is indicative of a winner. same for Totals! I haven't seriously looked into this phenomenon, but it happens enough that my next step is going to be to call off my bet if the line on the bet I've made goes up. If my line goes down, I have started press my bet in that the market is telling me I'm backing a winner.

Now some of my general theories as to what is happening: 1.The majority of the gamblers in the market are losers. (sorry for the word loser, I don't want to offend anyone. From the numbers that I have seen 85% of the bettors in the market lose. But take heed if you are reading this you are probably in the 15% that cares and works at this) 2.The market is efficient. Thus the market is driven by 85% of the bettors money, losing bettors at that, and is directly reflected in that the flow of money (line up) usually indicates a losing wager and the opposite holds true, line down winner.

I have generalized on the flow of money. The flow includes all; sharp and public. From my computer in Buzzard Breath Wyoming, I have no way of knowing WHO is moving the line just that there is a flow coming in causing the line to rise and it indicates a loser and that the opposite is true.

Question for you Ice, how do you know that the money is syndicate or sharp money? I would think that unless you are sitting on the other side of the counter at the Book, taking in the money, you have no way of knowing if its sharp or public. Not that it matters... just curious.

In summary line moves up: loser. Line moves down: winner.

Of course its not 100% but it appears to be greater than 52.4%.

Just an observation. Track it and see.

Click to expand...

Occam,

When you say the line moves from 5 to 4 or 3, have you tracked each move? if a line moves 1 point VS 2? or 1 point VS 1.5?

I didnt know if you realized any difference?

Do you see it go in streaks or is it pretty consistent?

I too before thought about this as well. I have seen so many of NBA games go from -5 to -2 IF there star player was out and guess what, the team would still blow them the F out! Go figure. Your sorta fading the fade.

I just dont know if I have the patience to do this longterm and I never tracked it for any extended period of time. Also, I think you need to know the minimum of a line move to take, 1 point enough? 2 points? Do you do the same on totals?

Another thing to think about.

What are you using as your base line? Noon time? Overnights I think would be tricky. Have you tracked that?

He already does that senditin.


He's doing more of a Pinny lean versus doing what I said...only play the ones that result in a scalp. That's why his percentage is only 54%. It's a lot higher if you do what I mentioned. In terms of trying to decipher line moves from opening to close...that's a complete crapshoot. You have the computer boys driving some lines up with the intention of buying them back heavy on the other side. Concentrating on the best line closer to game time and letting a good book tell you the best side is the way to go.

Mr J said:

He already does that senditin.

If you are speaking of beating the closing # at pinnacle by a half point on the square side, I say no it is not profitable after juice

It's usually numbers that are "square", not sides.

If you are talking about the best # no matter what time of day it is , maybe

Definitely, not maybe. We're talking about more efficient markets such as the pro's, not the college sports. In the more efficient markets, a volatile market will very likely offer profitable positions on both sides. The key isn't just an apex number, it's getting the apex in a volatile market.

but once again we are fading steam against syndicates and that can be dangerous

Stick to the large, efficient markets, unless of course you are well-informed.

Almost like day trading

More like that than the idea of what most people have of sports betting (handicapping).

Click to expand...

Definitely? Unless you have run the #s not sure that is true. If he was getting the best # on the "sharp" side-(don't know how else to describe it), I guess you could say best # before the line moved and he is hitting 54%, You would have to improve the % chance of winning by 6% to be profitable trying to bet the apex. THat is a pretty decent move you would have to hit to be profitable.

SENDITIN said:

Way too much thinking and work Ice....stick with the time tested method. Find yourself as many local pigeon books as possible. Add to the mix a couple of friends who wager as well. Hammer the locals with any game that becomes a scalp only...the line must move enough to create a scalp. Don't take the scalp...just play the game with the local pigeon line. Mix in some of your friends bets to throw them off the trail. Eventually you will get booted by the smarter books, but the ride is worth it.

Click to expand...

Having trouble finding and keeping local nowadays. need to get back in the bar scene.

Have to get back to work. Would like to get back into this later.

Occam's,
So you are saying if the line goes from -5 to -3 than bet the -3 and you will win more than 52.4%? Not sure if this is what you are saying. So basically underdog steam wins, favorite steam loses?

May start looking into pct of bets and line movement and using this as an indicator. Slow moving NBA movement that eventaully goes up enough fro established opener must be square money. Now when Delaware drops from -5 to -3.5 in a quick swoop I have to assume that is syndicate money in CBB. I am not a big follower of trying to decipher what money is square and what is sharp but I may look into this and your above example seems interesting espically if you have public pct info. This is why databases would and could be crucial to backtest this. Bottom line I would rather spend my time with this than the tradional capping sense.

THat is a pretty decent move you would have to hit to be profitable.

Not really. If you stick the volatile markets in a large, efficient market (such as nba) you don't need much of a move at all. If we're fading a 54% bettor we need a 14 cent move in an 8 cent market, and we can usually bet into a lower margin than 8 cents.

He's doing more of a Pinny lean versus doing what I said

Both methods use the same methodology of betting the soft side of a scalp.

only play the ones that result in a scalp. That's why his percentage is only 54%. It's a lot higher if you do what I mentioned.

His percentage is "only" 54% because he goes for high volume.

steam

Just my opinon, but a few false moves can put a dent in your bankroll...

^agree

ricky the dragon steamboat

Iceman said:

Here is what I have tried to add to what I had been doing successfully for 16 months. I am always looking for more plays and have thought this out long and hard and am now at a crossroads.

Originally what I have tried to do is beat slow moving books before they went to the next number as long as the number had moved enough, some call it the Pinny lean (as I used Pinny as my indicator) and others say it was somewhat chasing steam, bottom line I was just trying to beat thje closing line. I have been able to win at around a 54% clip like clockwork for almost 16 months and had 1 losing month and averaged around 900 plays a month. Overall I have been very happy with this.

I noticed this method working when I first started middling/scalping and I was mainly beating the slow moving books and losing or breaking even at the faster, sharper, buy back books. There was/is little to no handicapping involved. Bets were found any and everywhere such as 1st half totals, halftimes, etc and stuff like that, just not your game sides and totals though those were important.

This hoops season I decided to add something into the mix, which was to almost due the complete opposite of what I started out doing. I would find the settled in opening number (after a few hours of players betting off the opener) and if there was enough line movement throughout the day I would bet against the move. Meaning for example if Miami opened with a total of 208 and the total went up to 212 (ususally looked for 1.5 pts on a side and 2 point movements on a total) I would bet under the best number I could find at one of my 10 books. I would wait late to make these bets almost assuring me I always bet the best number seen all day. I tried to beat the Pinny closing line and with a few reduced juice shops I ususally did or I would catch a better than Pinny number at a book that may have overreacted to the line move.

Here is the problem: I lost doing this. I was still going with the my orginal plan also, which was too beat the slow moving books but if I missed the moves (which happens) I would basically bet against this. Now I only tried this with about 150 bets and I ran right around 50% with it, which A) means nothing in the big scope of things and B) 50% is losing money. Right before every half hour set of tipoffs I looked at the upcoming games and seen if they had moved enough off of their original starting number and than looked to see if I had bet the move earlier in the day and if not now I was loking to reverse it and fade the move. Basically doing the opposite. I did show a small profit with NBA totals but got pounded with NBA and CBB sides (didnt bet if injuries were the cause for line move). Doing this with CBB and all the smart money out there on totals maybe really dumb is something that also scared me.

My theory was shouldnt you win if you almost always get the best number? I have always explained to others that beating the closing line with the Pinny lean squeezes 5 extra wins out 100 that most push and lose on and that is where your edge comes into play. I thought (and still sort of do) that this is the same thing. Betting numbers at their apex should win.

Click to expand...

When you're betting near close the numbers are their strongest because they have been battered into place by that time. If you lay 8 early on a game that closes at 10 or 10.5, you are giving up your edge because 10 or 10.5 is probably the right number, and 8 was the lay that had value.

Also, you can never be sure what the apex is and you will not always get it. If a game moves from 6 to 8, how do you know an 8.5 or even a 9 won't show up? But you DO know at that point that the 6 had value. By taking back the 8 or 8.5, you are giving up the edge you managed to get earlier. That's why your results have been mediocre with your late takebacks.

Mr J said:

THat is a pretty decent move you would have to hit to be profitable.

Not really. If you stick the volatile markets in a large, efficient market (such as nba) you don't need much of a move at all. If we're fading a 54% bettor we need a 14 cent move in an 8 cent market, and we can usually bet into a lower margin than 8 cents.

He's doing more of a Pinny lean versus doing what I said

Both methods use the same methodology of betting the soft side of a scalp.

only play the ones that result in a scalp. That's why his percentage is only 54%. It's a lot higher if you do what I mentioned.

His percentage is "only" 54% because he goes for high volume.

Click to expand...

So a 14 cent move based off of what number? Give me a few examples of what you would consider a qualified play.

High volume means everything and is the main reason I have added this to the mix. I honestly think 56% is about the maxium one could sustain over a 1,000 plays so 54% is more than acceptable.