Which is the better play?

Search

New member
Joined
Jan 20, 2007
Messages
340
Tokens
I play some opening hoops numbers with the intent to buy back if I feel really strongly that the line will definitely move in my favor. Usually, the line moves enough where I can get a scalp as well as a risk free shot at hitting a side or a middle. Sometimes that's not the case though.
Let's say I get the Celtics -4 at -110. Before the game starts, I can get the Bulls +4.5 at +106. Or I can get the Bulls +4 at +117.
Long term, is it smarter to pay the 4 cents and try to hit the side, or take the 7 cent scalp each time? I almost always pay the 4 cents. But, if paying for a side is the best thing, how much is the maximum one should pay?
 

EV Whore
Joined
Apr 18, 2006
Messages
19,916
Tokens
I play some opening hoops numbers with the intent to buy back if I feel really strongly that the line will definitely move in my favor. Usually, the line moves enough where I can get a scalp as well as a risk free shot at hitting a side or a middle. Sometimes that's not the case though.
Let's say I get the Celtics -4 at -110. Before the game starts, I can get the Bulls +4.5 at +106. Or I can get the Bulls +4 at +117.
Long term, is it smarter to pay the 4 cents and try to hit the side, or take the 7 cent scalp each time? I almost always pay the 4 cents. But, if paying for a side is the best thing, how much is the maximum one should pay?

Depends on what number you are trying to hit...
 

New member
Joined
May 20, 2002
Messages
1,262
Tokens
You bet 110 to win 100 on the Celtics-4. Since you can find the Bulls at +4+117 you can bet 96.77 on the Bulls and guarrantee yourself a profit of 3.23 regardless of the outcome of the game. You can also bet 101.94 on the Bulls+4.5+106 and go for the middle. If you fail to hit the middle you will lose 1.94. Assume that you hit the middle 4% of the time. The expected value of the middle is the 100 you win 4% of the time minus the 1.94 you lose 96% of the time, i.e. .04*100-.96*1.94 or 2.14. It looks like the scalp is the better choice.
You ask what is the maximum you can pay to make the middle the better choice. You should be able to use the method above to answer that question.
 
Last edited:

Forum statistics

Threads
1,108,591
Messages
13,452,739
Members
99,425
Latest member
StarryInsider1
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com