I did have some things to say that hopefully sparked a serious discussion but since I came back from the Pub, I cant find anything I put down earlier and any use of figures now is asking for trouble,the crux of the post was going to be highlighting the Books side of things taking into account the bad Weather this weekend. Leaving the odd piss take post, hopefully light hearted banter to one side, as a retired Bookmaker I felt Posters on here had the wrong mindset of Books and taking them for granted would be detrimental to the overall goal.
Many Moons later and I find posters are still ignoring what could potentially be their best weapon. Its a certainty that the majority of punters on here and elsewhere underestimate the time and thought Bookmakers put into their prices yet having the same information as them gives the Punter reasonable chance over time. Knowing your Enemies tactics will always put you in a stronger position and betting is no different.
All a Bookmaker requires to set the table out is,
THE TRUE ODDS: Not hard to work out given the number of stats available nowadays.
WHERE THE BETTING PUBLIC ARE LEANING: By this I dont mean the same as all those stupid derogatory posts about square punters. Linemakers are very exact in their numbers whereas amateur cappers and punters( who all have very good ways of coming to a figure and are not stupid )tend to deal in whole numbers like 3,6,7 in the NFL. Therefore its easy for a Bookmaker to round these numbers out and see how much the Betting public are going to favour one side.
WHEN IS THE MONEY COMING: Different punters bet different times of the week, so-called sharps tend to wait until all info is in their hands, recreational punters dont look at a game till at least Saturday along with the majority of leans, leaving the hawkers ( very few so not an issue) potential sharps( not an issue because of limits) and the early arrivals of the Public type.
ARE THERE ANY EXTENUATING CIRCUMSTANCES: Injuries and weather are the most common, running up liabilities and futures being the less common.
This time of Year Totals are very popular as the Punter for some reason thinks He has a step on the Books because of the Weather. I have to laugh when I see articles on the Net showing how to exploit the books, many which are written by people like Simon Noble, a Books representative. The reality is that Books spend plenty time analysing all angles before setting the odds and their margin gives them a buffer zone for being wrong.
This week the Books have down played every East coast game, New England, Washington, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, New York, not initially because of the Weather but because the public leans were all on the Over. knowing the only people willing to stump up cash early was Under bettors, the books erred on the side of caution. What I find intriguing is now that all have dropped over the last few Days, has the Books made a mistake, misread the Weather or just punters piling into silly numbers.
In my experience, any situation that alters the betting is always knee-jerked in the markets and the Books view is your taking a bad number at a bad price and being the greedy people they are, they tend to fill the trough with it. Because the prices in these games have moved so much, people aren't betting on the outcome anymore but the Weather as if it comes good, there surely losers or winners at bad odds. If the Weather stays bad and the Books lose, the vig will have justified there moves, but if it comes good, look for a rapid move in the lines to make the expected weekend over bettors pay big.
Either way, what I'm trying to point out is the value of knowing the correct line and the lean, that way you can see what the Books are trying to do to you. These Totals have dropped like stones and still are but the Books first impression was it isnt going to be as bad as thought so there's some great Overs to be had at the moment. With more snow the next few days they will probably drop more and I can only point to Pinny as a guide, when their vig levels out then is more than likely bottomed out. That is when you hit the Overs. :drink:
Many Moons later and I find posters are still ignoring what could potentially be their best weapon. Its a certainty that the majority of punters on here and elsewhere underestimate the time and thought Bookmakers put into their prices yet having the same information as them gives the Punter reasonable chance over time. Knowing your Enemies tactics will always put you in a stronger position and betting is no different.
All a Bookmaker requires to set the table out is,
THE TRUE ODDS: Not hard to work out given the number of stats available nowadays.
WHERE THE BETTING PUBLIC ARE LEANING: By this I dont mean the same as all those stupid derogatory posts about square punters. Linemakers are very exact in their numbers whereas amateur cappers and punters( who all have very good ways of coming to a figure and are not stupid )tend to deal in whole numbers like 3,6,7 in the NFL. Therefore its easy for a Bookmaker to round these numbers out and see how much the Betting public are going to favour one side.
WHEN IS THE MONEY COMING: Different punters bet different times of the week, so-called sharps tend to wait until all info is in their hands, recreational punters dont look at a game till at least Saturday along with the majority of leans, leaving the hawkers ( very few so not an issue) potential sharps( not an issue because of limits) and the early arrivals of the Public type.
ARE THERE ANY EXTENUATING CIRCUMSTANCES: Injuries and weather are the most common, running up liabilities and futures being the less common.
This time of Year Totals are very popular as the Punter for some reason thinks He has a step on the Books because of the Weather. I have to laugh when I see articles on the Net showing how to exploit the books, many which are written by people like Simon Noble, a Books representative. The reality is that Books spend plenty time analysing all angles before setting the odds and their margin gives them a buffer zone for being wrong.
This week the Books have down played every East coast game, New England, Washington, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, New York, not initially because of the Weather but because the public leans were all on the Over. knowing the only people willing to stump up cash early was Under bettors, the books erred on the side of caution. What I find intriguing is now that all have dropped over the last few Days, has the Books made a mistake, misread the Weather or just punters piling into silly numbers.
In my experience, any situation that alters the betting is always knee-jerked in the markets and the Books view is your taking a bad number at a bad price and being the greedy people they are, they tend to fill the trough with it. Because the prices in these games have moved so much, people aren't betting on the outcome anymore but the Weather as if it comes good, there surely losers or winners at bad odds. If the Weather stays bad and the Books lose, the vig will have justified there moves, but if it comes good, look for a rapid move in the lines to make the expected weekend over bettors pay big.
Either way, what I'm trying to point out is the value of knowing the correct line and the lean, that way you can see what the Books are trying to do to you. These Totals have dropped like stones and still are but the Books first impression was it isnt going to be as bad as thought so there's some great Overs to be had at the moment. With more snow the next few days they will probably drop more and I can only point to Pinny as a guide, when their vig levels out then is more than likely bottomed out. That is when you hit the Overs. :drink:
