Hedging My Oakland Raiders Bet?

TheWolf · Dec 26, 2007

Alright, it pretty much looks like my Oakland Raiders OVER 5 Wins for the season is not going to happen. I was hoping to salvage a push from this, but very unlikely.

What would the best way to try and hege this bet? (SD Moneyline? Right now is -375.......was hoping theydve wrapped things so I couldve gotten a lower sprea and lower ML.......didnt happen. Seems to be a tough spot to hedge.)

My bet was Oakland Raiders OVER 5 Wins for season (-160) $640 to win $400.

Woody0 · Dec 26, 2007

$808.88 on the SDC ML at -350 for a guaranteed loss of $408.88.

$1828.57 on the SDC ML at -350 to win $640 for no net loss provided SDC win, but a $1428.57 loss if the Raiders win.

Some intermediate position.

wilheim · Dec 26, 2007

The Wolf

Even with Phillip Rivers possibly gimpy and not available I don't see the Chargers going into a protect everyone mode with the #3 seed on the line. The difference is #3 plays either Tenn/Cleve and #4 plays Jacksonville in the first round of playoffs. The seeding has significent implications in the second round also, #3 seed travels to Indianapolis and #4 travels to New England provided they both win in week one.

What would you do if you were running the Chargers?

Plus second string Charger QB Billy Volek is as good as any back-up in football for a game like this if Phillip Rivers can't go (right now he is probable). Volek is a solid veteran back-up who will not lose the game all by himself like other back-ups have been known to do.

wil..

throwback420 · Dec 26, 2007

Raiders ML

rayray · Dec 26, 2007

"Plus second string Charger QB Billy Volek is as good as any back-up in football for a game like this if Phillip Rivers can't go (right now he is probable). Volek is a solid veteran back-up who will not lose the game all by himself like other back-ups have been known to do." wil..

this the same billy volek who managed 1-3 for 1 yard in over a quarter against denver the other night.. did they even get a 1st down in the 4th quarter(maybe 1, i dunno) he is absolutely horrible. hey, nobody said you have to hedge the bet on this game..there are others. gl (i do agree that s.d. wins but with turners playcalling and volek throwing 8 yrd passes in the ground, it could get interesting)

wilheim · Dec 26, 2007

raydog --Like that Dever mop up was a true test.

Billy Volek lifetime:
29 Games 10 Starts 525 attempts 315 completions
59.8% for 3510 yards - 26 Tds 14 ints.

Show me a better back-up.

Charger possesions in the 4tr quarter on Monday nite. They sat on the lead.

San Diego Chargers at 11:44
1-10-SD3 (11:44) M.Turner left tackle to SD 5 for 2 yards (M.Thomas).
2-8-SD5 (11:03) M.Turner left end to SD 6 for 1 yard (D.Williams).
3-7-SD6 (10:16) D.Sproles up the middle to SD 9 for 3 yards (J.Winborn).
4-4-SD9 (9:34) M.Scifres punts 45 yards to DEN 46, Center-D.Binn, fair catch by G.Martinez.

-10-SD49 (8:35) M.Turner up the middle to DEN 49 for 2 yards (J.Winborn, J.Engelberger).
2-8-DEN49 (7:50) M.Turner left tackle to DEN 49 for no gain (H.Abdullah).
3-8-DEN49 (7:05) B.Volek sacked at DEN 49 for 0 yards (sack split by E.Dumervil and T.Crowder).
4-8-DEN49 (6:22) M.Scifres punts 35 yards to DEN 14, Center-D.Binn, fair catch by G.Martinez.

1-10-SD44 (5:19) D.Sproles up the middle to DEN 49 for 7 yards (D.Williams).
2-3-DEN49 (4:46) D.Sproles up the middle to DEN 47 for 2 yards (N.Webster).
3-1-DEN47 (4:07) B.Volek pass incomplete short middle to K.Osgood (N.Webster).
4-1-DEN47 (4:02) M.Scifres punts 34 yards to DEN 13, Center-D.Binn, fair catch by G.Martinez.

1-10-SD24 (1:49) B.Volek kneels, dead ball declared at SD 23 for -1 yards.
2-11-SD23 (1:08) B.Volek kneels, dead ball declared at SD 23 for no gain.
3-11-SD23

34) B.Volek kneels, dead ball declared at SD 22 for -1 yards.

Try doing a little homework before you stir someone the wrong way.

wilheim

rayray · Dec 26, 2007

wasnt trying to stir up anything. was simply stating facts about how he played the other night. i know the guy is a decent backup but he did attempt 2 passes of less than 10 yards and threw them in the ground. geez, dont take things so personal. i watched the guy play for years in tenn and his career stats are great for a backup but he is 1-6 for a yard this year and has more sacks than passing yards.. the guy just doesnt get to play and i think the rust is caked on too much. i assume rivers and l.t. will play some and that should be plenty for the ml win. the homework has been done, better hope rivers plays at least 2 qtrs. is my point. i personally would not let a huge ml play rest on the shoulders of a guy who hasnt played more than a few quarters all year. maybe taking a bunch of snaps this week will get him back into the swing of things

wilheim · Dec 26, 2007

Nothing personal - just stated the Denver mop up was no indicator of Volek's ability.

The point is Billy Volek is a professional back-up and is primed to step in at short notice. If I had to choose any back-up in the playoffs to start a game I wanted to win this Sunday, he just might be the guy. Look at all the top teams and their back ups and tell me who is any better.

Brad Johnson, Cowboys
Charlie Batch, Steelers
Brooks Bollinger, Vikings
Scott Holcomb, Vikings
Matt Cassel, Patriots
Bruce Gradkowski, Bucs
Luke McCown, Bucs
Quinn Gray, Jaguars
Anthony Wright, Giants
Aaron Rodgers, Packers
Jim Sorgi, Colts
Senaca Wallace, Seahawks
Mark Brunel, Redskins
Brady Quinn, Browns
Kerry Collins, Titans
Bill Volek, Chargers

It could be a moot point anyway because apparently Rivers will play and if the Chargers play like they have been over the 5 game winning streak they are on they may well have this game won by halftime. I know the Titans gave them all they could handle two weeks ago but that was the Titans not the Raiders.

My original point is I make The Wolf a good sized dog to get win #5 with the Raiders when all things are considred. It is not like he is getting the 8 points, he needs the Raiders to win on the field to push his prop, losing but covering is no help.

Personally, I would not lay the points with the Chargers to hedge either if I were him because he could easily get middled if the Raiders lose but cover.
I also would be hesitant to lay a big ML on the Chagers to hedge. Basically IMO he should just sit on the prop and hope for the best and take his lumps for $640 if the Raiders lose - there is no real viable hedge. Woody O's example puts a lot more $ at stake and is not IMO worth the risk.

BOL. wil.

TheWolf · Dec 28, 2007

Alright enough about Billy Volek........What about my Oakland bet???

If Oakland loses I will lose $640. Need Oakland to win for a push and to get my $640 back.

I could bet $800 to win $200 on SD ML, then I would only lose $440 if Oak loses, but that doesnt seem worth it.

A $600 teaser is the other option I suppose......SD down and who else???

Or is there an easier way to hedge this and get my $640 back that I am not seeing?

Thanks---

VIEJODINOSAUR · Dec 28, 2007

Take the loss and move on...you are in a bad spot...

By the way Wil, Rodgers will do well when he gets the chance and Batch is a proven back-up...just another 2 cents...

DonDollars · Dec 28, 2007

Wolf. I would just sit tight and not hedge.

I have the game capped with a belief that San Diego has a 78% chance of winning the game (which is reflected fairly accurately in the line). With this being said you currently have:

78% chance of losing $640
22% chance of breaking even

This is the equivalent of about a -$500 ticket

If you hedge on the -375 moneyline and wager $750 to win $200....you would have:

78% chance of losing $440
22% chance of losing $750 (break even on future bet, lose money line bet)

This is the equivalent of about a -$510 ticket

I think it is a better financial decision to sit tight. I WOULD NOT do anything with teasers.

DrunkenHorseplayer · Dec 28, 2007

I'm in the same position; Oak O5 and I've also got Arizona U7; think I'll just sit back and see what happens.

TheWolf · Dec 28, 2007

Don Dollars said:
Wolf. I would just sit tight and not hedge.

I have the game capped with a belief that San Diego has a 78% chance of winning the game (which is reflected fairly accurately in the line). With this being said you currently have:

78% chance of losing $640
22% chance of breaking even

This is the equivalent of about a -$500 ticket

If you hedge on the -375 moneyline and wager $750 to win $200....you would have:

78% chance of losing $440
22% chance of losing $750 (break even on future bet, lose money line bet)

This is the equivalent of about a -$510 ticket

I think it is a better financial decision to sit tight. I WOULD NOT do anything with teasers.

Thanks. Much appreciated.

Timetopay · Dec 28, 2007

Be a man and put more on Oak Moneyline

Hedging My Oakland Raiders Bet?

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THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX.

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