question on bookies

shakitlikeapro · Jan 6, 2008

Hello all.

I've been around sports betting for quite a while but it's only recently that I decided to look at the industry from the other side.

Anyways, Ive noticed that sides rarely get 50% each or even close to it. it appears that it is more common to see sides getting 60-75% than 45-55%.

I know they move the line, but it seems that total betting population does not radically shift back to 50% after the line move.

So my question is, do online sportsbooks really rarely get near equal amounts on each side? And if so, aren't they risking too much?

And for local bookies, whose clientelle would certainly be much less, does this also meaen that majority of the time they try to pass on the risk (the bets) to vegas or to online sportsbooks?

Or do the both just eventually rely on the poor gambling habits of the majority of the betting population to make a profit?

Wondering here.
Sorry for the barrage :toast:

Thanks.:smoker2:

VIEJODINOSAUR · Jan 6, 2008

Nowadays, you need decisions...-110 is not what it used to be....and if you are using -105 then you had better win some decisions...very rare for a book to get even action on both sides of a game unless you force it....

Illini · Jan 6, 2008

Ask the bookies in Boston, if there are any left, if they get balanced action on their games.

TTinCO · Jan 6, 2008

I think getting "equal action" is a lot harder than most people think, but on the other hand, I suspect that most books at least have the option to lay off into someone else if they want (No facts behind it-just my hunch).

CapNCash · Jan 6, 2008

You wouldnt even have to charge juice to have a successful operation.

VIEJODINOSAUR · Jan 6, 2008

TTinCO said:
I think getting "equal action" is a lot harder than most people think, but on the other hand, I suspect that most books at least have the option to lay off into someone else if they want (No facts behind it-just my hunch).

You are correct, they have options but seldom lay off....Outside of CRIS, Olympic, Pinnacle, and Grande, most books do have options...the big books do not lay off....I have only witnessed it one time in all my years...

cincy_ · Jan 6, 2008

How can books lay off action? I really don't get it.

If I am overloaded with Boston -4 and the line is currently Boston -3, how do I get rid of the excess Boston -4 wagers? I can't take the other side at +3 and risk getting middled.

How do books balance their action after a line move? Is there a standard rule for laying off ... just like the price chart that we have for buying points?

shdw01 · Jan 6, 2008

I know local books that would take as much as they want (probably close to equal action) and at the last minute just call the rest in to the bigger bookie.

You are looking at it on too small of a spectrum here. Sure the games will not be 50/50.....but over the long haul, each individual account should hit near 50/50, and as they go, they drop off 10% of their losses each time. That adds up.

Game 1 80% winners:
400 bets ($100 each) on Team A ($40,000 total)
100 bets ($100 each) on Team B ($10,000 total)

$40,000 in wins - $10,000 in losses - $1,000 in vig = $29,000 loss for books

Game 2 20% winners:
400 bets ($100 each) on Team C ($40,000 total)
100 bets ($100 each) on Team D ($10,000 total)

$10,000 in wins - $40,000 in losses - $4,000 in vig = $34,000 win for books

small sample size, books get $5,000....but I"m sure the actual scale is much bigger

shdw01 · Jan 6, 2008

cincy_ said:
How can books lay off action? I really don't get it.

If I am overloaded with Boston -4 and the line is currently Boston -3, how do I get rid of the excess Boston -4 wagers? I can't take the other side at +3 and risk getting middled.

How do books balance their action after a line move? Is there a standard rule for laying off ... just like the price chart that we have for buying points?

Risk on the line move is what it takes to be in the business.....the middles hardly hit, but keep in mind, even if they do, there are people that would've played boston when it was -4 and the other side after it drops to -3

cincy_ · Jan 6, 2008

shdw01 said:
Risk on the line move is what it takes to be in the business.....the middles hardly hit, but keep in mind, even if they do, there are people that would've played boston when it was -4 and the other side after it drops to -3

I am asking about laying off bets ...

How do I get rid of a shitload of -4 wagers when the line is currently at -3?

CapNCash · Jan 6, 2008

you have a 1 point advantage. what do you mean?

cincy_ · Jan 6, 2008

CapNCash said:
you have a 1 point advantage. what do you mean?

Sorry .. I got it mixed up because I was thinking from a player's perspective and not the book's perspective ...

... but the question is still the same ... if you get beat to a line move and you have an overload and the line has changed in the other direction, can books still lay off the action or are they stuck with it? How does it work?

TTinCO · Jan 6, 2008

cincy_ said:
I am asking about laying off bets ...

How do I get rid of a shitload of -4 wagers when the line is currently at -3?

Kind of stating the obvious, but you pay out the nose, or you let it ride.

shakitlikeapro · Jan 6, 2008

thanks for the replies, especially to shdw01. I was also thinking the same thing when i said "rely on the poor gambling habits of the gamblers." I guess that like what you said, it's not so important for each game to have 50% of the amount of bets on each of the sides, the individual bettors would eventually fall/rise to approx 50%.

I guess this leads me to a follow up question... if having the sides even for each game is not that important, why do most local bookies then move the line at all based on local favorites rather than just rely on the lines dished out by vegas? shouldn't that be good enough to make the bettors fall/rise to 50% sooner or later?:toast:

bellyputter · Jan 6, 2008

CapNCash said:
You wouldnt even have to charge juice to have a successful operation.

If there wasn't some sort of juice(leverage) in the equation, there wouldn't be a single book left standing. Good Luck

hno:

lapdance · Jan 6, 2008

bellyputter said:
If there wasn't some sort of juice(leverage) in the equation, there wouldn't be a single book left standing. Good Luck hno:hno:

your wrong, 100% wrong. the juice is only a small factor. the BS of 50/50 action and the book makes the juice is crap. why would anyone go through all the trouble of booking just to make the juice.
also, the only books that lay off are either scared, no bankroll or are betting themselves. a true book gives nothing away.

steaktartar · Jan 6, 2008

lapdance said:
your wrong, 100% wrong. the juice is only a small factor. the BS of 50/50 action and the book makes the juice is crap. why would anyone go through all the trouble of booking just to make the juice.
also, the only books that lay off are either scared, no bankroll or are betting themselves. a true book gives nothing away.

no he is right 100% right.....it about decisions ill grant you that but when you win those decisions you better be making better the juice on them too.....or over the course of a year you will be spinning your wheels

lapdance · Jan 6, 2008

no, he's wrong and your wrong. if juice is that important, then why do places give reduced juice. if you run a book based on juice your in the wrong business.

TTinCO · Jan 6, 2008

lapdance said:
no, he's wrong and your wrong. if juice is that important, then why do places give reduced juice. if you run a book based on juice your in the wrong business.

Um, to attract business maybe?

p.s. Nothing personal, but I've got a hunch(a really, reallly strong one) that Steak just might know a hell of a lot more about this biz than you do.

bellyputter · Jan 6, 2008

TTinCO said:
Um, to attract business maybe?

p.s. Nothing personal, but I've got a hunch(a really, reallly strong one) that Steak just might know a hell of a lot more about this biz that you do.

Duh!

hno:

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