Super Bowl ML and Survivor Pool - Need Input

fhmesq44 · Jan 7, 2008

Ok, here is the scenario and I am interested in your thoughts:

560 people in a survivor pool, $100/entry, winner take all
3 strikes and you're out
1 guy stands perfect
29 guys have one loss - I am one of these thanks to Joe Gibbs understanding of the rule book

Obviously we can't simply track the plays of the guy that stands perfect or we will be left with nothing. Thus, we have to deviate from the strategy to some extent.

I see two options to do this:

- try to figure out which way he is going to go in the NFC title game and go the opposite, saving NE for the super bowl. - Obvious problem = if we are wrong and end up on the same side we are done, with no chance to win.

- select the NFC to win the super bowl under the assumption he will select NE and hope the NFC pulls off the upset. This would likely entail taking Indy this week and NE/Jax winner next week.

Questions:

1 - which way would you go?

2 - when would you start hedging to guarantee something out of this? If I were to bet SD this week, Indy next and NE/Jax in the Super Bowl a win on any of the bets guarantees some money but we lose in the pool, if I lose all of those bets that means I likely win money in the pool (assuming he doesn't get crazy and do the same thing we do).

3 - how would you hedge?

Thanks.

2 -

Biggamer3 · Jan 7, 2008

fhmesq44 said:
Ok, here is the scenario and I am interested in your thoughts:

560 people in a survivor pool, $100/entry, winner take all
3 strikes and you're out
1 guy stands perfect
29 guys have one loss - I am one of these thanks to Joe Gibbs understanding of the rule book

Obviously we can't simply track the plays of the guy that stands perfect or we will be left with nothing. Thus, we have to deviate from the strategy to some extent.

I see two options to do this:

- try to figure out which way he is going to go in the NFC title game and go the opposite, saving NE for the super bowl. - Obvious problem = if we are wrong and end up on the same side we are done, with no chance to win.

- select the NFC to win the super bowl under the assumption he will select NE and hope the NFC pulls off the upset. This would likely entail taking Indy this week and NE/Jax winner next week.

Questions:

1 - which way would you go?

2 - when would you start hedging to guarantee something out of this? If I were to bet SD this week, Indy next and NE/Jax in the Super Bowl a win on any of the bets guarantees some money but we lose in the pool, if I lose all of those bets that means I likely win money in the pool (assuming he doesn't get crazy and do the same thing we do).

3 - how would you hedge?

Thanks.

2 -

I dont get it, there are 560 people in this pool?

Pure odds would have it that one guy will go perfect for the whole deal, no?

isnt one loss already too much to have?

fhmesq44 · Jan 7, 2008

No one has ever gone perfect in the ~8 years he has run the pool. You can only pick each team once, so it gets harder as the season drags on.

Obviously it would be better to have no losses, but one loss still has a chance to win money. I am trying to maximum my chance to win something, whether through the pool or just betting.

With one loss I can still win pool money if he loses a game and we don't, which means I have to take a risk on a game and go the opposite of the way that he will likely go.

Also, forgot to ask if anyone knew of ML with the possible SB matchups, just for information at this point.

PO69 · Jan 7, 2008

I have NEVER heard of survivor pools going into the playoffs. And I would actually think that with 560 people that the odds would be that 2 people would go undefeated.

Wouldnt it be impossible to do this for the playoffs? I mean you have all used these teams.

And IFFFF it is possible to do this in the playoffs, then most likely he goes undefeated

fhmesq44 · Jan 7, 2008

You get a new start in the playoffs. So, the pool goes until only one man stands with fewer than 3 losses and once you get into the playoffs, all of the teams can be used again.

You guys are missing the point, I realize he has a decided advantage and if he goes undefeated, so be it, I lose out on the pool. HOWEVER, I am trying to guarantee myself money whether it is via the pool or via betting. For me to win money in the pool I have to deviate from the guy that is undefeated, the two methods of which I have outlined in the first two - above. Secondly, IF he goes undefeated I can still win money by betting against my pick in the pool. IF I choose method two under - AND bet against my picks I am virtually guaranteed money through either the pool (if I am correct with each pool pick and lose each bet) or the betting (by winning a bet and losing in the pool).

The only way I lose out entirely is if I choose say Indy, NE, NFC and he does the same thing. I am confident enough that he will NOT take NE before the SB that I will roll the dice on that.

fhmesq44 · Jan 7, 2008

Also, does anyone know where I can find lines for possible matchups? All I can find are each teams odds to win. Thanks.

PO69 · Jan 7, 2008

WOW! I have still never heard of a league like this, but I dont think that you have any shot at hedging any money here because of the fact that 29 other people are playing with you.

I would just ride it out and see what happens

fhmesq44 · Jan 7, 2008

Disagree, there aren't going to be many left standing after the super bowl.

HuskerFan1 · Jan 7, 2008

wow i just had a reply and had to delete the whole thing bc this is so weird from the info he gave....

#1) you have to play to win this weekend bc you dont know who he is gonna select of the 3 games (you said Pats in the SB and i still dont think thats an auto lock)

when you get to the conf title games its really interesting bc with 56k on the line this guy is gonna know who is favored etc and he can start hedging etc if he wants, so most likely he will take the NFC favorite in that game so you could blindly go the other way, as that would be your best shot based on line if it runs true to form (bc the SB line with the pats will be absurd)

imo the #1 guy will take either INDY or DALLAS this weekend most likely Dallas bc if the pats get upset he could use Indy next week or in the SB (everyone knows INDY would be the fav in the SB vs any NFC team)

play to win this week then see what the matchups are and then go from there...you will have his play from this weekend so it will be easier to gauge what to do...

lastly i wouldnt say its 100% certain he will save the pats for the SB, just a what if, pats/dallas/gb SD (upsets indy) he uses DALLAS and stays perfect

then you have Dallas/GB TOUGH TOUGH game and Pats at home vs SD, if i was #1 in the pool id USE Pats to ensure myself undefeated going into the SB then i/he can hedge...your talking about hedging who's to say he isnt?

lastly if i was you id play to win and hope some of the other guys with 1loss try to pick a dog to upset and end up going to 2losses...this thread will be interesting to bump next week when we know who he took and the results

steaktartar · Jan 7, 2008

when i cant concentrate i watch this...works every time

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=auy4ncRassI

PO69 · Jan 7, 2008

Steak, how come you will never answer what book you are with?

fhmesq44 · Jan 7, 2008

Thanks Husker. At this point I am leaning to AFC (Indy), AFC (Jax, NE), NFC (whoever). Agree with you that we have to play to win this week and not get cute on something.

I guess another question would be, do I start hedging this week by taking SD on the ML?

steaktartar · Jan 7, 2008

PO69 said:
Steak, how come you will never answer what book you are with?

this will help you

http://youtube.com/watch?v=PrsbeyZ9PUo

steaktartar · Jan 7, 2008

PO69 said:
Steak, how come you will never answer what book you are with?

i do stuff for couple of places mainly one so i dont say....not to hard to figure main one and all three i do things for are solid sponsors here

fhmesq44 · Jan 11, 2008

well, the plays are in. After much discussion and consternation we decided to go with Dallas this week. Not b/c we think it is the best choice, but b/c we thought it would put us opposite the guy in first next week.

Turned out we are right, he took GB this week. So, while we may not end up winning anything, at least strategically we made the right decision.

Guess I have to decide how much I am playing on NYG ML this week to assure some money out of it.

PO69 · Jan 11, 2008

I still dont understand why he didnt win already. He was undefeated! How can you get better than that??

Matt · Jan 11, 2008

steak tartar said:
when i cant concentrate i watch this...works every time

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=auy4ncRassI

"But for the moment I need to accept the fact that I am an angry boy, who will occassionally try to burn down a house or toss a poison dart at his mother." lol.

fhmesq44 · Jan 11, 2008

PO69 said:
I still dont understand why he didnt win already. He was undefeated! How can you get better than that??

It is 3 strikes and you're out, not one loss and you are out. So, he could lose, one, two or three games still. It isn't over until either the season ends or there is one man standing with fewer than three losses.

PO69 · Jan 11, 2008

Well if it is 3 strikes and your out, then at LEAST 15 players will have 2 losses or less and most likely 8 guys with 1 or less

fhmesq44 · Jan 12, 2008

PO69 said:
Well if it is 3 strikes and your out, then at LEAST 15 players will have 2 losses or less and most likely 8 guys with 1 or less

there have only been two times where more than 2 people shared the pot, last year there were 6 and the year prior 8 or 10. It isn't as easy as you think. Currently 29 with 1 loss. 2 losses gets you nothing if guys have 0 or 1 loss.

Super Bowl ML and Survivor Pool - Need Input

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