Is there a matchbook lean too?

patswin · Jan 7, 2008

Is there such a thing as a matchbook lean, similar to the pinny lean? Reason I ask is I am trying to meet a rollover at a book that I won 5k in an nfl contest. I am trying to meet the rollover by betting games at this book then taking the opposite side at matchbook, trying to get as close to equal lines as possible to minimize my losses getting to the rollover. I’m about ½ way through meeting the rollover so far and I am finding that I am losing 75% of my bets at matchbook and winning at the other place. For example, when I find a line of say -180/+160 at my winnings book and I can get +175 or better at matchbook I almost always lose my bet at matchbook. I’ve been tracking it recently and I am definetly noticing a pattern of losing my matchbook bets. I can remember when I was scalping bonuses a few years ago and was using pinnacle I would use them as my main book to beat the bonues. I would find that if I could get +109 at Pinny and -110 at another book I would always lose the Pinny bet, which I attributed to the lean.
Has anyone found a similar trend at matchbook other than me? I know my sample size is still small but I’ve used similarly before and noticed the same thing. Are there professional groups that seed the exchange?

steaktartar · Jan 7, 2008

the pig had a giant lean on lsu game tonight had 47 1/2 whole world was 46....you need to learn which offices are doing what

steaktartar · Jan 7, 2008

all books lean or gamble it is easier for people to see pinnys but we are all the same

quantumleap · Jan 7, 2008

steak tartar said:
the pig had a giant lean on lsu game tonight had 47 1/2 whole world was 46....you need to learn which offices are doing what

Doesn't the lean depend on what side the book needs money?

patswin · Jan 7, 2008

yeah i know most places will have an opinion on a game, i can spot that ok. what i can't figure out is with matchbook being an exchange, its not a book taking a side, its got to be a group of backers or exchange seeders, doing something like a pinny lean by making offers on one side. Other part i can't figure is in my example -180/+160 example i may be able to get +175 at matchbook but I may be able to find the other side at -175 at other shops which kind of negates the lean, right?

Doug · Jan 8, 2008

Did you win the Lazer grand prize ?

Sugarbear · Jan 8, 2008

In an exchange, can there really be such a thing a a lean?

guitarjosh · Jan 8, 2008

Sugarbear said:
In an exchange, can there really be such a thing a a lean?

Sure, if sharps can set lines too.

onemwtheone · Jan 8, 2008

Definitely a lean at Matchbook as well. Not as many plays will be found at MB, but the lean is every bit as good as Pin.

Here's my last 3 months (since 10/1/07) --

Pin
1628-1353-66 ROR 53.03%

Match
662-529-27 ROR 53.71%

Maybe 40% the action you get from Pin, but the matchbook lean is very good.

gynecologist · Jan 8, 2008

Done a lot of bonus busting with Matchbook...

Matchbook side loses a lot more than whatever other book I'm bonus busting with or hedging with. I've made three deposits into Matchbook this season because I keep losing with their side and winning with the other side.

patswin · Jan 8, 2008

Doug said:
Did you win the Lazer grand prize ?

no i won a weekly nfl contest at justbet a few weeks back

Iceman · Jan 8, 2008

Noticed the same thing a few years back with Mansion and MB when I scalped, always losing to the "ahead of the market" book. I am a lifetime loser at these books and another reason why i have adopted the style I do.

patswin · Jan 8, 2008

Iceman said:
Noticed the same thing a few years back with Mansion and MB when I scalped, always losing to the "ahead of the market" book. I am a lifetime loser at these books and another reason why i have adopted the style I do.

Ice was wondering would it be possible to bet with the lean rather than against it and show a profit long term?

Iceman · Jan 8, 2008

patswin said:
Ice was wondering would it be possible to bet with the lean rather than against it and show a profit long term?

meaning not betting at MB and betting the good number at book A that is scalpable with MB's number?

Iceman · Jan 8, 2008

Have to get back to work but will check in later but this most likely will win over the long haul against consensus numbers(you could use 3 top tier books to find the consensus line) but I think you would need a 500 bet sample to notice it. This is the approach I take as I believe all -110 bets hit around 50% so I look for lines that are equal to a -120 line and bet it at -110 at a more recreational book so the edge comes into play eventually.

patswin · Jan 8, 2008

Iceman said:
meaning not betting at MB and betting the good number at book A that is scalpable with MB's number?

no i mean betting the same line at matchbook or other shops that are close.

For instance, last night nhl ana/nash line at most shops was an-180 nash +160. At matchbook they were offering ana -179 /nash +177. The way i have been betting is to take the +177 at MB and bet the -180 at my book (again i'm trying to meet the rollover and minimize my losses doing so). What I am thinking is trying get a piece of the ana -179 at MB or -180 at another book since that is the "right side". Does this make sense?

roach23 · Jan 8, 2008

How much stock can you put on a lean at matchbook when the max you can get at that number is sometimes bullshit like $30??

patswin · Jan 8, 2008

roach23 said:
How much stock can you put on a lean at matchbook when the max you can get at that number is sometimes bullshit like $30??

not talking about those offers, the ones I am taking about are usually 1k or more

patswin · Jan 10, 2008

Been looking at this for a few days now and I think I have noticed a trend. I think its related to a pinnacle lean. Looking at the CBB games, today a few are standing out. Some examples are

Cal-Oregon
Pinnacle has Cal -5.5 -112
MB has Oregon +5.5 +105

Stanford-Oregon St
Pinnacle has Stanford -9.5 -112
MB has Oregon St +9.5 +104

NBA
Pinnacle has Det +4 -110
MB has SA -4 +109

So I am thinking these offers are directly related to the Pinnacle lean, maybe someone is trying to get better odds on what Pinnacle likes? Curious though sometimes the offers are only 1 or 2 cents off from each other, you'd think they would just accept an offer on the side they like rather than offering up what they are.

BillyWaltersJr+ · Jan 10, 2008

patswin said:
Been looking at this for a few days now and I think I have noticed a trend. I think its related to a pinnacle lean. Looking at the CBB games, today a few are standing out. Some examples are

Cal-Oregon
Pinnacle has Cal -5.5 -112
MB has Oregon +5.5 +105

Stanford-Oregon St
Pinnacle has Stanford -9.5 -112
MB has Oregon St +9.5 +104

NBA
Pinnacle has Det +4 -110
MB has SA -4 +109

So I am thinking these offers are directly related to the Pinnacle lean, maybe someone is trying to get better odds on what Pinnacle likes? Curious though sometimes the offers are only 1 or 2 cents off from each other, you'd think they would just accept an offer on the side they like rather than offering up what they are.

If only money was easy to move and we had Pinny...

Too bad.

Is there a matchbook lean too?

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