It is not a mental state ... it is VERY normal to have streaks and abnormal NOT to have them.
There was an experiment done where people were told to
... to a point where people can tell which logs were from people that actually flipped the coins and which came from people who logged results without coin flips.
There was an experiment done where people were told to
- flip a coin 100 times and log the outcomes (as heads or tails)
- pretend to flip a coin 100 times and log the outcomes (as heads or tails)
... to a point where people can tell which logs were from people that actually flipped the coins and which came from people who logged results without coin flips.
The biggest factor in gambling streaks in "most" cases is LUCK. I don't care how sophisticated the gambler is, the right bounce of the ball makes everyone a lot sharper in the short term. Money management, overall handicapping, information, and on and on, come into the equation much more the larger the sample.
40 Mr. Smith, a teacher of introductory statistics, shows his students a transparency of the two sequences below and tells them, "In these two sequences of 200 coin flips, H stands for a head and T for a tail. One of the sequences shows what happened when a student actually tossed a fair coin 200 times. The other sequence was made up by a student trying to fake flipping a coin 200 times. Which do you think is the real sequence and which is the fake?"
THTTTTHHTHTHTTTTTHHTHTHHHHHHHHHTHTHTHHHT
HHHTTHHTHTHHHHHTHHTHHTTHTHTHTTTTTTHHTHTH
THTTTHTTTTHHTTTTHTTTTHTTTTHHHTHTHHTTTHTT
THTTHHTHHHTHHHHHTHHHTTHHHTHHTTTTTTTHTTTH
TTTHTTHTTTHTTHHHHTHHHTTTHTTTTTTHHTHTTTHH
THTHTTTHTTTTHHTHTTTHTTHHHTHHTHTHTHTTTTHH
TTHHTTHHHTHHHTTHHHTTTHHHTHHHHTTTHTHTHHHH
THTTHHHTHHTHTTTHHTHHHTHHHHTTHTHHTHHHTTTH
THHHTHHTTTHHHTTTTHHHTHTHHHHTHTTHHTTTTHTH
TTHTTHTHHTTHTTTHTTTTHHHHTHTHHHTTHHTHHTHH
Answer: The one that doesn't have long streaks is fake ... because people think streaks are not normal ... so in this case, the 2nd list is fake because the longest streak is of FOUR ... because after 4 heads, the person making the list thinks he has to change to tails.
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THTTTTHHTHTHTTTTTHHTHTHHHHHHHHHTHTHTHHHT
HHHTTHHTHTHHHHHTHHTHHTTHTHTHTTTTTTHHTHTH
THTTTHTTTTHHTTTTHTTTTHTTTTHHHTHTHHTTTHTT
THTTHHTHHHTHHHHHTHHHTTHHHTHHTTTTTTTHTTTH
TTTHTTHTTTHTTHHHHTHHHTTTHTTTTTTHHTHTTTHH
THTHTTTHTTTTHHTHTTTHTTHHHTHHTHTHTHTTTTHH
TTHHTTHHHTHHHTTHHHTTTHHHTHHHHTTTHTHTHHHH
THTTHHHTHHTHTTTHHTHHHTHHHHTTHTHHTHHHTTTH
THHHTHHTTTHHHTTTTHHHTHTHHHHTHTTHHTTTTHTH
TTHTTHTHHTTHTTTHTTTTHHHHTHTHHHTTHHTHHTHH
Answer: The one that doesn't have long streaks is fake ... because people think streaks are not normal ... so in this case, the 2nd list is fake because the longest streak is of FOUR ... because after 4 heads, the person making the list thinks he has to change to tails.
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