Its very easy to get carried away with myths and easy money stories that you read into thinking that the game of winning at Betting is just a matter of a few quick tricks and bingo, see you at the payout. The same People will also give the Books no respect at how good they do their Job lowering them to almost complete guessers in some cases. The truth is Books spend plenty of time and money making sure that what they produce is as good as it gets and that means having feelers in all Teams in every Sport in order to have their finger on the pulse. As I have said before, the Books have Oddsmakers who use a wide variety of Facts and Stats to come up with a true line, I don’t know what its called in the States but in Britain its called a tissue price. The individual Books then use their intimate knowledge of the betting Public and their own Clients to further enhance the Spread in order to get a mythical 50/50 action, I say mythical because I have never seen or heard of a Bookmaker that expects equal betting on both sides. Rather than try to achieve the impossible the Books use Vig to make sure that you will pay a premium for betting their weak side, this side sometimes gets quoted as their lean but in reality Books don’t have leans, when they go to work in the morning they don’t care who wins what game when where or how as long as they earn.
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So just to start let me ask you a few questions, why do People put so much emphasis on price movement? And why do they treat the number as sacrosanct? My own theory (but I’ve seen it all my bookmaking life) is that Humans being Herd Animals its far easier to jump on the bandwagon or think that someone knows more than the price is telling. The problem is, in the cold light of Day which would you rather go with,
<!--[if !supportLists]-->A)<!--[endif]-->A thoroughly professional assessment of the Facts with no prejudice
<!--[if !supportLists]-->B)<!--[endif]--> An assessment by someone you don’t know or for what reason that is contrary to A
I say what reason because Bookmaking can be complex at times, especially in the later games of the Day or Night when running up Money might be the only reason for a Steam. However the main thing is why would one ignore the hard work of Bookmakers to take a hit on the vig to stay at the original Number? The reason is geeks and anoraks who will tell you how much ½ a point is worth while totally ignoring the overall picture, I’ve spent a lifetime earning from Punters who came in my shops with slide rules, Pythagoras bollocks, someone’s bell etc etc and all missed the fundamental point, you personally need a reason to think the odds are wrong. Don’t mistake these reasonings with People who jump the market to earn like Traders, Middlers and Scalpers, although the latter Two are somewhat over hyped but when considering the straight Bettor, these vogue statements are poison and the main reason People lose.
If there’s one thing you need to know to make your betting better is cancel your vig and don’t worry about the points, the Books whole operation relies on the Bettor taking that vig and whats good for the book is bad for the Player.
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OK, now that We’ve got the losing out of the way what about the winning. Well once again make the Books your Friend and trust their work and realise they are not going to be that far out in their assessments but like anything in Life, they have their Achilles Heel. Actually they have Two Achilles Heels just like the rest of us, the first one is a thing called back to the norm, I’m sure Grainchew or some other Math geek have a proper word for it but basically its adding the League average to the number and dividing by 2, this makes a lot of sense as it takes into account any wild swings in scoring over a certain period but it does restrict the oddsmakers in their assessments when you get things like the Weather we had in NFL games recently. The other is Books will look at certain Stats to tweak the true price like the under/over record of the Two Teams when considering the Total, the scoring potential like 3s in Basketball will also affect the line.
I’m not going to tell you what I do nor do I think that it would be of worth as not many on here would be as dedicated as I am to this endless, mind numbing going through the motions sometimes 20 Hours a Day but that’s me and I certainly wouldn’t encourage others to do it, but of course that’s why we get the easy Money threads. The point here is to cut through the vogue ideas of Bookmaking and Gambling and start from a point of respecting the Books view, asking yourself have you serious reason for opposing that view and making sure you don’t pay for it. :drink:
<!--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> <!--[endif]--><o
></o>So just to start let me ask you a few questions, why do People put so much emphasis on price movement? And why do they treat the number as sacrosanct? My own theory (but I’ve seen it all my bookmaking life) is that Humans being Herd Animals its far easier to jump on the bandwagon or think that someone knows more than the price is telling. The problem is, in the cold light of Day which would you rather go with,
<!--[if !supportLists]-->A)<!--[endif]-->A thoroughly professional assessment of the Facts with no prejudice
<!--[if !supportLists]-->B)<!--[endif]--> An assessment by someone you don’t know or for what reason that is contrary to A
I say what reason because Bookmaking can be complex at times, especially in the later games of the Day or Night when running up Money might be the only reason for a Steam. However the main thing is why would one ignore the hard work of Bookmakers to take a hit on the vig to stay at the original Number? The reason is geeks and anoraks who will tell you how much ½ a point is worth while totally ignoring the overall picture, I’ve spent a lifetime earning from Punters who came in my shops with slide rules, Pythagoras bollocks, someone’s bell etc etc and all missed the fundamental point, you personally need a reason to think the odds are wrong. Don’t mistake these reasonings with People who jump the market to earn like Traders, Middlers and Scalpers, although the latter Two are somewhat over hyped but when considering the straight Bettor, these vogue statements are poison and the main reason People lose.
If there’s one thing you need to know to make your betting better is cancel your vig and don’t worry about the points, the Books whole operation relies on the Bettor taking that vig and whats good for the book is bad for the Player.
<!--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> <!--[endif]--><o
></o>OK, now that We’ve got the losing out of the way what about the winning. Well once again make the Books your Friend and trust their work and realise they are not going to be that far out in their assessments but like anything in Life, they have their Achilles Heel. Actually they have Two Achilles Heels just like the rest of us, the first one is a thing called back to the norm, I’m sure Grainchew or some other Math geek have a proper word for it but basically its adding the League average to the number and dividing by 2, this makes a lot of sense as it takes into account any wild swings in scoring over a certain period but it does restrict the oddsmakers in their assessments when you get things like the Weather we had in NFL games recently. The other is Books will look at certain Stats to tweak the true price like the under/over record of the Two Teams when considering the Total, the scoring potential like 3s in Basketball will also affect the line.
I’m not going to tell you what I do nor do I think that it would be of worth as not many on here would be as dedicated as I am to this endless, mind numbing going through the motions sometimes 20 Hours a Day but that’s me and I certainly wouldn’t encourage others to do it, but of course that’s why we get the easy Money threads. The point here is to cut through the vogue ideas of Bookmaking and Gambling and start from a point of respecting the Books view, asking yourself have you serious reason for opposing that view and making sure you don’t pay for it. :drink:
