Bedard going to the M's - they will be scary with him and King Felix

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Will still miss the playoffs and will not win more than 86 games. Team massively overachieved last year.
 
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Those two pitchers will have to stay off the disabled list...both have thrown a bunch of pitches the last couple of years...who is the Seattle pitching coach?
 

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Both are good for 7+ innings when healthy and will give the ball directly to Putz, sparing Seattle from using what will be a weak rest of the bullpen
 

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You think so? Because half the teams in the AL West are PATHETIC (Rangers/A's).

I do. I follow this blog religiously. www.ussmariner.com. The guy knows his shit.
Using random guesses, hunches, wishcasting, and general skullduggery. You can, as I frequently note, get extremely close to a good projection using a player’s three-year average. Therefore!
C-R: Johjima. No change. I still (as always) think he might outdo himself, but .285/.325/.435, no problem.
1B-R: Sexson. Ugh. Dead cat bounce. .245/.330/.460 … that looks high, now that I check it. Oh well.
2B-R: Lopez. I’m bullish on his 08 season. .275/.320/.400 on the low end. The more Cairo plays, the worse this gets.
SS-R: Betancourt. Last year’s about as well as you can expect him to hit without a change in what he’s doing up there. Step back a little, he’s still a .290/.315/.410 hitter. If he’s playing good defense, you take it.
3B-R: Beltre. Wooo! Beltreeeee! Call me a fan, but .275/.325/.460 is entirely realistic.
LF-L: Ibanez. .280/.350/.455.
CF-L: Ichiro. .330/.380/.420
RF-R: Jones. .270/.330/.440. I have no idea. OBP’s probably high, SLG might be low.
DH-B: Vidro. .280/.350/.380. Really. I realize I’m going to have to write up a long post on this at some point, but I’ve been spending a lot of time studying Vidro’s balls-in-play charts and I think he’s nearly done as a hitter, and if he doesn’t go off the cliff next year, we’ll still see a lot less. Now that I think about it, there will probably be two reactions to that post, and they’d run
- yeah, I see those same warning signs
- Vidro’s on fire! Revitalized! You hate him because of the Snelling trade!!!11!!oneone!!
which makes me wonder if it’s worth writing.
Bench: Burke/WFB/Cairo/?. They’ll drag down the line a bit.
So as a team, that’s a line of about .280/.340/.430, which is… drum roll please… about what they hit last year, when they scored 794 runs. No surprise there.
Defensively, it’s a step up. Replacing Guillen with Jones is a huge upgrade. Perhaps he and Ichiro can play left-center and right-center, and Ibanez can back up Sexson at first.
So to the pitching, then.
SP-R Felix Hernandez. Continues to progress.
SP-L Jarrod Washburn. Continues to be Jarrod.
SP-R Carlos Silva. Even if his fundamental stats don’t change, he’ll likely have an ERA of 4.50 or more.
SP-R Miguel Batista. Figure another year eats into his K rate a little, and he’ll still be pretty effective.
SP-? ?
That last one’s a pick-em: Baek, HoRam, Morrow, whoever you want. Who it is, and how they do, could make a huge difference. Hard to be worse than HoRam.
Just swapping out Weaver for someone decent is worth 20 runs, at least. And then if you replace HoRam with any decent pitcher, that’s another 20. They’re not going to have any trouble putting a dramatically improved rotation out there.
Bullpen: I don’t think they’ll have any problem throwing together an equally-effective bullpen for next year, even with Putz bound to come down a little.
Overall on the pitching side, let’s call it… fifty runs. Might be better than that, but that’s reasonable, especially considering the defense with Jones offset somewhat by Ibanez and Sexson both getting a little creakier, then Betancourt not making as many errors.
We’re at ~795 runs scored, and ~780 runs allowed. That’s an over-.500 team, though not by a lot.
You can immediately identify where this could go wrong on the scoring side (Sexson not hitting would kill that offensive number, as would Cairo playing) or right (Vidro somehow sustains his crazy hit rate, Lopez breaks out) and on the pitching side (Felix breaks out/Jarrod breaks down).
But I don’t see a team that’s ready to challenge the Angels, and I don’t understand why people think they might be competitive. A lot of things have to break the M’s way, while a lot of other things can’t go wrong (particularly, this is not a deep squad that could take any serious injury to… well, I won’t point out who, because I’m paranoid). The Angels are pretty easily a 90-win team, and the Mariners as presently constituted aren’t close. Luck can swing a season, certainly, but hoping both that the M’s get lucky and the Angels suffer a catastrophe seems unrealistic and, if that view leads to trades that hurt the team’s chances to compete for a championship in the long term, harmful.

About This Trade

By: Dave and filed under Mariners

1. Erik Bedard is awesome - one of the five best pitchers in the American League.
2. Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez are both candidates for the 2008 AL Cy Young Award.
3. Two great pitchers and mediocre everything else is not a formula for consistent success.
4. The Mariners are going to miss Adam Jones. Badly.
5. The Mariners right fielder in 2008 is going to suck.
6. The Mariners outfield defense is going to suck.
7. In 2009, we’re going to be hunting for two new corner outfielders.
8. The Angels are still the most likely team in baseball to win their division.
9. The Mariners improved themselves by, at most, 2-3 wins in 2008 with this deal.
10. If Erik Bedard isn’t healthy all year, we’ll be analyzing the new GM in 10 months.
11. The Mariners wouldn’t have made this trade if they understood how to value defense.
12. I will run out of analogies for this trade before spring training starts.
13. The total amount of talent given up will rival only the Bartolo Colon trade of 2002.
14. The biggest loser in this deal will be Jarrod Washburn.
15. This trade cements the fact that Brandon Morrow will never start a game for the M’s.
16. The idea that the M’s valued Morrow over Jones is so ridiculous, I can’t even fathom it.
17. The Mariners are now paying Horacio $2.75 million to fight for the role of long reliever.
18. In July, the M’s will be talking about trading for a veteran relieve to improve the ‘pen.
19. Geoff Baker and I will never agree on any of this.
20. Jeff Sullivan and I will agree on all of this.
21. I won’t care much over losing Chris Tillman. I will care deeply over losing Carlos Triunfel.
22. The M’s have, once again, taken a bad path to a good goal. It will, once again, not work.
 

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Pretty negative way to look at things. We replace Weaver/HoRam with Bedard/Silva. I'd say that will save us a few horrible starts. Sure the defense took a blow losing Jones, but starting pitching was our downfall all last year. Will the offense be as productive? Probably not. But the starting rotation is surely better and the bullpen will be solid once again. I should also mention that Safeco is a pitchers favorite friend.
 

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USS mariner is just another fan except he's got his own site. I don't hold his takes as any more important than I would another fans posting around the net.

As an M's fan I like the trade. Jones is big league ready but aside from Sherill that's all the O's got that is. If the trade is as is being reported right now as Jones, Tillman, Sherill, Mickolio and Butler then I think it's a good deal. Jones is going to be a good pro but an elite one? doubt it and it's no lock that he's even a good one, but Bedards a proven top of the rotation guy and they're harder to come by then are good outfielders. Sherill had very good numbers but he's hardly irreplacable. Tillman and Butler are both a while away from making the jump so whether they make it or not is a ?. Mickolio isn't a highly thought of prospect. To get Bedard especially if the M's can lock him up for for longer than the 2 on his contract without losing Triunfel, Clement or Morrow along with Jones is a coup, one I didn't have the faith that Bavasi could pull off without fawkin it up.

No question the M's have holes and this move doesn't solve everything or guarantee a playoff run but with some good seasons and some bounce back years at least it gives them a better look than they've had in the last few seasons. Come 09 it really helps as some big contracts come off the books and some holes can be addressed in fa and they can really try to make a push. Now if there's an extension so much the better and this rotations going to be a stength for years.
 

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I don't love the Angels lineup, however, the M's offense is very likely to be horrible. Does anyone have a prediction for the o/u wins line? I'll say 83.5
 

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I don't love the Angels lineup, however, the M's offense is very likely to be horrible. Does anyone have a prediction for the o/u wins line? I'll say 83.5

Why is it going to be so horrible?

Guillen leaves but looks to be replaced by Wilkerson who is a solid run producer. Sexson can't be much worse than he was last season, if he bounces back, the team should be better for it. The rest of the line up is solid enough. Barring any serious injuries it should be as good as last year and likely better if sexson can rebound. The offense wasn't the problem last year. I'll say over.
 

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This will be hilarious if Angelos vetoes the trade, apparently he's already holding it up
 

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Source: M's deal for Bedard on hold.. Fox Sports article.

The Mariners' quest to land Orioles lefty Erik Bedard is on hold — and possibly off — due to the involvement of O's owner Peter Angelos, according to major-league sources.


The reasons for Angelos' hesitation are unclear. However, Angelos' first choice is to sign Bedard to a contract extension, according to one source. The owner was under the impression that Bedard was unwilling to consider such a deal, the source says, but recently learned that the pitcher would entertain an offer if the Orioles were willing to extend him at least five years.

The trade amounts to a litmus test for the authority of Andy MacPhail, the Orioles president of baseball operations, who was hired last summer with the understanding that he would operate with autonomy over baseball operations.

Angelos has a history of interfering with his front office over personnel moves. His involvement has caused tension with several prior general managers.

On Monday, MacPhail denied that a deal with Seattle was in place.
"There really is no change. We are still having discussions, but we don't have an agreement," MacPhail said Monday.

MacPhail said he didn't expect that to change "over the next few days," but added, "anything can happen."

On Sunday, the Mariners asked prized outfield prospect Adam Jones to return to the U.S. from winter ball in Venezuela, according to sources, in what appeared to be a strong indication that a deal for Bedard was close. Jones is the centerpiece of the Mariners' offer for Bedard, and the team would not want him to risk injury by continuing to play if the trade was imminent. Jones' Venezuelan Winter League team is currently in the playoffs.


"(Mariners general manager Bill Bavasi) called me yesterday and told me the news," Jones told a reporter from Diario Panorama in Venezuela on Sunday, according to the Times. "I've got to go to Baltimore tomorrow morning and handle things there. I'm the centerpiece of the deal on the Mariners' side. It's an honor to get traded for such a highly talented pitcher as Bedard is."

Jones was called up by the Mariners last August. He hit .246 with two home runs in 65 at-bats. He's expected to compete for a starting job in Seattle's outfield this spring.

The Orioles' trade of Bedard would signal a major reconstruction. Another significant deal involving second baseman Brian Roberts likely would follow. The Cubs remain heavily interested in Roberts, and the Orioles could receive prospects such as pitcher Sean Gallagher and outfielder Felix Pie or veterans such as RHP Jason Marquis and outfielder Matt Murton. Earlier this offseason, the Orioles traded shortstop Miguel Tejada to the Astros for five younger players.

Fox Sports.com
 

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