Can posters on public forums move lines?

Puccini · Jan 27, 2008

I never thought this was really possible.

I remember when Ace-Ace was on his big NFL hot streak a couple of years ago some people suggested he was moving lines (seems funny in retrospect), but it takes a lot to move an NFL line.

However, there's a guy named Helmut (he posted here briefly) who posts college basketball totals on another forum. I'm amazed by how every one of his picks moves the line by 2 or 3 points. This is college basketball totals, but still.

Are books moving the lines once he posts, or are some bettors laying down big money, or a combination of both? Seems pretty wild either way.

He's got a pretty good record, but frankly I've lost money betting his picks during the last month or so. Which doesn't mean anything. I've missed quite a few of his winners and seem to bet his losers--you know how it goes.

But the point is, this guy is moving lines. Why him?

CapNCash · Jan 27, 2008

Ace Ace was definelty moving lines. Posting can move lines. Chump Chumply posts his play and 20 chuckleheads bet 200 a game on Bodog. This will move the line.

Doug · Jan 27, 2008

Spreadbeater moves lines. Railbird sure does on minor sports.

JudgeWapner · Jan 27, 2008

I could be wrong, but posting without the money coming in with it, won't move a line.

RobFunk · Jan 27, 2008

Judge Wapner said:
I could be wrong, but posting without the money coming in with it, won't move a line.

Thats my feeling also. Posted play on a highly followed capper with lots of guys getting down on that play. Yes, that can move the line. Simply posting the play, no never.

guitarjosh · Jan 27, 2008

RobFunk said:
Thats my feeling also. Posted play on a highly followed capper with lots of guys getting down on that play. Yes, that can move the line. Simply posting the play, no never.

You don't think a book will watch for that capper to post so no one gets his line Rob?

Doug · Jan 27, 2008

Well the money follows after the post. If Railbird posts a golf,tennis,HS Football,etc. pick, then people bet it. The poster must have the winner reputation.

JudgeWapner · Jan 27, 2008

guitarjosh said:
You don't think a book will watch for that capper to post so no one gets his line Rob?

Very, very doubtful.

Doug · Jan 27, 2008

Judge Wapner said:
Very, very doubtful.

Maybe not a poster, but I think they might with Edward from RAS ( picks service).

lapdance · Jan 27, 2008

Doug said:
Spreadbeater moves lines. Railbird sure does on minor sports.

i really hope your joking. trust me when i tell you that outside of this forum nobody knows or cares who those two are.

SC_trojan · Jan 27, 2008

lapdance said:
i really hope your joking. trust me when i tell you that outside of this forum nobody knows or cares who those two are.

so true.

Puccini · Jan 27, 2008

That's what I tend to think Lapdance. The gambling world isn't that small, is it?

Yet when this Helmut guy posts the lines always move 2-3 points, beginning from the time he posts.

Just a coincidence? Seems hard to believe.

gynecologist · Jan 27, 2008

Doug said:
Spreadbeater moves lines. Railbird sure does on minor sports.

wat? thats gotta be the funniest shit i've read in a LONG time.

nhoj · Jan 27, 2008

Yeah 2000 dime play isnt a 2000 dime play unless you play it posting it dosnt always mean the same thing. It was most likly a $20 bet so the line won't move.

whormoan · Jan 27, 2008

Actually, any poster can move lines. Put a maximum bet on any prop at the Greek and check back 30 seconds later. That line is gone.

RobFunk · Jan 27, 2008

whormoan said:
Actually, any poster can move lines. Put a maximum bet on any prop at the Greek and check back 30 seconds later. That line is gone.

:lolBIG: Good point.

gynecologist · Jan 27, 2008

whormoan said:
Actually, any poster can move lines. Put a maximum bet on any prop at the Greek and check back 30 seconds later. That line is gone.

Big difference between a prop and a NBA game. But you are right

TTinCO · Jan 27, 2008

gynecologist said:
Big difference between a prop and a NBA game.

Exactly. If someone with a following pounds a low volume prop or obscure sport, sure-it will hit the radar. Major sports? Forget it

sean1 · Jan 27, 2008

CBB totals are very easy to move... Max bet it at Pinny at night (like $250 or $500) once or twice and watch it move.

Beyond that, many books profile, and Helmut is probably profiled as a winner in CBB totals. His bet likely moves the line more than mine...

Now he could have a lot of fun with this if he liked...

cutacrossshorty · Jan 28, 2008

Puccini said:
Yet when this Helmut guy posts the lines always move 2-3 points, beginning from the time he posts.

Just a coincidence? Seems hard to believe.

If this guy Helmut is posting information that he got from others who move lines with real money, it would appear to some that his post is moving the line.

As for Ace-Ace, my recollection is that he would post and the line would move because he'd do so at a time in the week where the books weren't getting much action (like a tuesday afternoon for games on the weekend).
If the books start seeing a weekend game getting hit by numerous customers on a tuesday afternoon, they aren't going to leave the line where it is.