Let's just make this a giant thread with tips and info for the MLB season!!

JakeT. · Jan 30, 2008

Anything you guys have to add, please do so. I'll start off and add on throughout the day.

Wakefield (and knucklers in general) are more effective when the humidity is high. It causes their ball to dance more. When the humidity is low, the ball doesn't dance as much. High humidity = more effective knucklers.

Something to keep in mind when you bet on/against a knuckleballer. Check for that humidity.

Alright, who is next?

JakeT. · Jan 30, 2008

No one else? I know some of you stingy bastards have a few tricks of the trade to share...

elk102873 · Jan 30, 2008

Brewers will kick ass this year....

MrCleo · Jan 30, 2008

what's the Tigers lineup gonna be? Pudge batting 9th? bout to check how nice they're futures are.

SC_trojan · Jan 30, 2008

jakethompson said:
Anything you guys have to add, please do so. I'll start off and add on throughout the day.

Wakefield (and knucklers in general) are more effective when the humidity is high. It causes their ball to dance more. When the humidity is low, the ball doesn't dance as much. High humidity = more effective knucklers.

Something to keep in mind when you bet on/against a knuckleballer. Check for that humidity.

Alright, who is next?

great info, and often overlooked. :toast:

newb411breaker19 · Jan 30, 2008

(for the most part) stick to a dime line or better.

better to play 10 cent moneyline than 20 runline

Use theoretical era's and batter power ratings

you can get a nice free database at www.baseball1.com

i posted the following at eog,

Example 1. traditional -110/-110 betting such as nba or football pointspreads

First calculate the break even percentage.. 110/210 = 52.38%

1 - (1/(.5238+.5238)) = .0455 or 4.55%

To compare, here's an example using a dime line such as +135/-145

1- (1/(.4255+.5918)= approx 1.7%. 1.7% essentially means that if 10,000 dollars were split in action the book would "hold" 170 dollars.

Most of you are probably aware of this but hopefully it helped someone.

buy baseball prospectus, i pre-ordered it at amazon.

use theoretical ERA's over standard ERA.

I use DIPS ERA, later i might post a spreadsheet which allows one to input the basic stats and get the dips era

SC_trojan · Jan 30, 2008

homedawg was telling me to compare combined team totals to the game total and see if they are off.

newb411breaker19 · Jan 30, 2008

here's a dips example with all the formulas plugged in as well as a THP calculator and moneyline/percent converter

CHOPTALK · Jan 30, 2008

Too bad Joal Zumaya is hurt. I still dont have huge faith in the Detroit pen or the last 2 starters on Detroit.

I would be real shocked to see Dontrelle Willis return to his pre-2007 form.
I think what you saw last season is pretty much what you will see this year.

I dont expect Detroit to beat out cleveland dispite what everyone else says unless Willis returns to pre-2007 form, and someone surprising emerges from the bullpen.

I mean Detroit pretty much out hit everyone in baseball last season, and Cleveland still won the division fairly easy.

Whats the difference in losing 9-8 instead of 9-6?

They have issues that everyone seems to be ignoring.

Cleveland is the more complete team right now. Im almost willing to call them the most complete team in baseball.

But everyone is DETROIT,DETROIT,DETROIT.

Would not be shocked to see them miss the playoffs altogether if the AL EAST 2nd place team has a better record, because I dont see them beating out cleveland.

JakeT. · Jan 30, 2008

CHOPTALK said:
Too bad Joal Zumaya is hurt. I still dont have huge faith in the Detroit pen or the last 2 starters on Detroit.

I would be real shocked to see Dontrelle Willis return to his pre-2007 form.
I think what you saw last season is pretty much what you will see this year.

I dont expect Detroit to beat out cleveland dispite what everyone else says unless Willis returns to pre-2007 form, and someone surprising emerges from the bullpen.

I mean Detroit pretty much out hit everyone in baseball last season, and Cleveland still won the division fairly easy.

Whats the difference in losing 9-8 instead of 9-6?

They have issues that everyone seems to be ignoring.

Cleveland is the more complete team right now. Im almost willing to call them the most complete team in baseball.

But everyone is DETROIT,DETROIT,DETROIT.

Would not be shocked to see them miss the playoffs altogether if the AL EAST 2nd place team has a better record, because I dont see them beating out cleveland.

I think Bonderman and Verlander are BOTH going to be money this year. I don't expect Willis to do much better than a 4.5 ERA though. Detroit's offense will win them ball games. Todd Jones scares me as much as usual.

newb411breaker19 · Jan 30, 2008

I agree with you choptalk, Detroit and Cleveland are pretty evenly matched... However I haven't gone over cleveland's bullpen yet

Harvey Dent · Jan 30, 2008

I've been crunching numbers since the season ended...i hope to have a few systems i can share before opening day

JakeT. · Jan 30, 2008

Here's an easy one that most experienced bettors will know but some of the rookies may not be aware of...

ALWAYS check the wind at Wrigley before you make a bet. The wind effects the totals so much there that it's crazy. The wind blowing in at Wrigley and the wind blowing out at Wrigley could move the total 2 runs or more so be aware. Just because Under 10 +115 looks juicy with Zambrano and Harang on the mound might not look near as juicy with the wind blowing out at 35 MPH. There is no ballpark in the game where the wind plays near as big of a factor in runs scored.

newb411breaker19 · Jan 30, 2008

In terms of baseball betting literature, I highly suggest one read "Betting Baseball" by michael murray. I have the 2006 edition and I found it to be one of the most useful books in terms of giving somebody a chance at winning in baseball

I don't follow everything in the book to a T but the information in the book is easily worth the cover price.

JakeT. · Jan 30, 2008

Okay just another quick one...

IMO, San Diego and Washington are the two best pitchers' park in the majors. HR hitters are not going to do well in these huge parks. To succeed and score runs in those parks, you need to have a team of double and triple hitters for the most part or else you aren't going to get many easy runs. The totals are lower in these parks for a reason. Both of them have made below average pitchers have nice games so even though it's Matt Chico pitching against Jake Peavy, don't discount Chico throwing a gem from time to time in these parks. It happens more than you think.

JakeT. · Jan 30, 2008

Figured I'd bump this for the folks who were at work earlier and are just getting home.

Degenerate · Jan 30, 2008

I would expect a big dropoff from Arizona due to the difference of actual record to their runs scored and allowed.

Brock Landers · Jan 30, 2008

jakethompson said:
Anything you guys have to add, please do so. I'll start off and add on throughout the day.

Wakefield (and knucklers in general) are more effective when the humidity is high. It causes their ball to dance more. When the humidity is low, the ball doesn't dance as much. High humidity = more effective knucklers.

Something to keep in mind when you bet on/against a knuckleballer. Check for that humidity.

Alright, who is next?

how's he do traditionally in domes? i.e. Tampa, Minnesota..

gynecologist · Jan 30, 2008

Brock Landers said:
how's he do traditionally in domes? i.e. Tampa, Minnesota..

He kicks ass in Tampa. I remember him having an amazing record there in Tropicana.

barman · Jan 31, 2008

jakethompson said:
Anything you guys have to add, please do so. I'll start off and add on throughout the day.

Wakefield (and knucklers in general) are more effective when the humidity is high. It causes their ball to dance more. When the humidity is low, the ball doesn't dance as much. High humidity = more effective knucklers.

Something to keep in mind when you bet on/against a knuckleballer. Check for that humidity.

Alright, who is next?

heh

Jake, you seem to be one of the brighter contributors we have here.

And you're saying the "Knuckler on Humid Days" Angle was the first strategy that came to mind when looking ahead to the MLB season?

%^_

Let's just make this a giant thread with tips and info for the MLB season!!

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