I found a baseball Future bet that I LOVE

5starbomb · Feb 1, 2008

This is currently available at Pinnacle. Not sure where else I havent looked yet, but I will be.

Most Wins by MLB pitcher ?
411 Over 19.5 wins -146
412 Under 19.5 wins +130

OVER 19.5 Wins (-146)

Since 1983 there have only been 2 seasons not including the strike season where a pitcher hasnt reached the 20 win mark. At this price I think its a must to hop on the Over 19.5 wins. This bet is 21-2 the last 23 years. It doesnt get much better than this when it comes to futures imo. I like this even more especially with Johan heading to the Mets. He is a great candidate for 20 wins. Well just thought I would share this bc I was pretty shocked at this. It almost looks too good to be true to me

Harvey Dent · Feb 1, 2008

Im with you...that is MONEY

5starbomb · Feb 1, 2008

I forgot to add here our the 2 seasons where a pitcher failed to reach 20 wins.... as you can see they were VERY close

1995 - Maddux and Mussina 19 wins each

2006 - Santana and Wang 19 wins each

billhill999 · Feb 1, 2008

Santana will win 21 for the Mets.

JakeT. · Feb 1, 2008

Santana is money to win 20+ if healthy.

wilheim · Feb 1, 2008

Be careful - last two years only Josh Beckett won 20 games (exactly).

In all of baseball for 2006 and 2007..

2007 NL
Jake Peavy (SDP) 19
2007 AL
Josh Beckett (BOS) 20

2006 NL.
Aaron Harang (CIN) 16
Derek Lowe (LAD) 16
Brad Penny (LAD) 16
John Smoltz (ATL) 16
Brandon Webb (ARI) 16
Carlos Zambrano (CHC) 16

2006 AL.

Johan Santana (MIN) 19
Chien-Ming Wang (NYY) 19

-----------

Bottomline is there are not a lot of dominating picthers in MLB right now. I make Beckett a good sized dog to win 20 or more in back to back seasons.

The Mets have not had a 20 game winner since 1985 when Dwight Gooden won 24.

All that said. BOL with the prop..

wil..

romer · Feb 1, 2008

it sucks its only on pinnacle. americans can't use pinnacle.

hno:

TomGshotput · Feb 1, 2008

Going back to 1983 you see a season with 24 complete games. Comparing seasons like that with 2008 would be like thinking betting on Dick Cheney as Republicans presidential nomination because every previous vice president has at least earned the nomination. Things chang and baseball strategy changed a whole lot in the 80s, from 24 complete games and, 130 steals to 70 hometuns and 199 strikeouts

The over 236.5 strikeouts only misses once going back to 1983 (1990) and is only -111

bullring · Feb 1, 2008

So you are going to wait 10 months to cash on -146? Why don't you just put that money in your savings account and earn interest on it. I'm guessing thats what pinnacle is going to do.

chengkeke · Feb 1, 2008

weirdian · Feb 1, 2008

bullring said:
So you are going to wait 10 months to cash on -146? Why don't you just put that money in your savings account and earn interest on it. I'm guessing thats what pinnacle is going to do.

Your savings account earns you 68% interest over 10 months? :think2:

Texas-Winners · Feb 1, 2008

sucker bet...give me the plus money

Railbird · Feb 2, 2008

not the great bet it appears to be. new era now, less 100 win teams, more sliders which lead to injury, and less big time arms.

BettingFoodStamps · Feb 2, 2008

beckett will hit 20, penny might hit 20, peavy,santana. this is a great bet for this scenario.

wilheim · Feb 2, 2008

Betting Food Stamps.

FWIW -- Brad Penny has never won 17 games in his 8 year career (88 total wins during his 8 seasons).

Jeff Peavy won 19 last year while winning the NL Cy Young Award - before that his best total was 15 wins back in 2004 (76 wins in 6 years).

You are putting a lot of presure on two players whose teams will be hard pressed to win 85 games on the season in 2008.

Johan Santana hasn't won 20 since 2004 which was the ONLY time in his career he won 20 and is now with a new team where anything can happen.

Josh Beckett won 20 games excatly for the first time in his career last year and definitely is no cinch to repeat the career year he had in 2007 this year (I hope he does). Prior to last his best season was 16 wins in 2006. Beckett promises to be a winner but arm trouble may cut down on his starts and he will never win 20 unless he gets at least 30 starts, something he has only done twice in his 7 year career.

Fausto Carmona won 19 last year as a virtual rookie - definite question mark.

C.C. Sabathia won 19 and the AL Cy Young in 2007 before that his best year was 17 wins way back in 2001.

John Lackey came out of nowhere to win 19 games for the Angels never having won more than 14 in any of his previous 5 seasons.

The best shot at 20 wins out of all of them IMO belongs to Yankee righthander CM Yang who is coming off back to back 19 win seasons on a team that should win at least 95 games in 2008.

Laying 46 cents this prop has only minimum value, especially considering if you bet some real money (2K or more) of the post up variety. The cash will be tied up for at least 6 months, which is fine if you are holding a huge bankroll otherwise the $ is part of your most likely limited bankroll that you could use on a regular at least weekly if not daily basis to earn all season.

Again BOL. to anyone playing the prop..

wil..

5starbomb · May 16, 2008

I like the way this prop bet is looking so far....

BettingFoodStamps · May 16, 2008

webb is already at 9, but their is a bunch of guys over 6 which is pretty good about now.

barman · May 16, 2008

Certainly hard to envision Webb not hitting 20+ barring injury.

I'm kinda cheering for old man Livan to notch 20 in Minnesota. (six currently and Twins are 8-1 in his starts)

VIEJODINOSAUR · May 16, 2008

barman said:
Certainly hard to envision Webb not hitting 20+ barring injury.

I'm kinda cheering for old man Livan to notch 20 in Minnesota. (six currently and Twins are 8-1 in his starts)

That is one of the biggest stories in baseball this year...who would have thought it?? :103631605