baseball is more complex my friend, no matter what system you use, no matter who you follow, if you dont get the best line that alone will SWING yoiur BANKROLL 20% by the end of the year,,,,
I know Im not relaly helping you with a system,, there are a Hund out there,, (statfox is great) but getting the best early line is most importatn to any system,
tater
I know Im not relaly helping you with a system,, there are a Hund out there,, (statfox is great) but getting the best early line is most importatn to any system,
tater
BANKROLL 20% by the end of the year,,,,
getting the best early line is most importatn to any system,
tater
That being said.... At what point do you begin to look at the next days card? Before all the night games have ended?
I plan to bet at B&M sportsbooks this year for my daily plays. When trying to schedule out my routine/day should I begin to plan on making late night and early trips back out shortly after the overnight lines come up?
well, there are subtle techniques that will take years for you to develope, but basicly what your asking is if you make plays the night before will you get your best line then??
the answerr is maybe,,, how the teams played the night before matters, how deep they went into bullpen matters, of course how the lead pitcher Fared will be 70-80% of wether or not a line moves with you or against you,
heres 1 stat that may be of interest to you, (I am probably off a bit, but it will be corrected as soon as a sharp reads over this thread) last season 2007 I think there was 13 games where the line went to the favorite being -300 to -400 and I think the favorite covered twice lolol,,,, sooooo,,, there may be some DOGGIE gold left in that stat come this year,,, I may be off a few %points but you get the picture,,,
get your best line, and the more outs you have the better your BR will be come november,,,
good luck
tater
the answerr is maybe,,, how the teams played the night before matters, how deep they went into bullpen matters, of course how the lead pitcher Fared will be 70-80% of wether or not a line moves with you or against you,
heres 1 stat that may be of interest to you, (I am probably off a bit, but it will be corrected as soon as a sharp reads over this thread) last season 2007 I think there was 13 games where the line went to the favorite being -300 to -400 and I think the favorite covered twice lolol,,,, sooooo,,, there may be some DOGGIE gold left in that stat come this year,,, I may be off a few %points but you get the picture,,,
get your best line, and the more outs you have the better your BR will be come november,,,
good luck
tater
What comes to mind is early in the season going against the Yankees. I recall DRays errrr Rays now, that would be in that -250 to -300 range and trounce the Yankess early season.
Hey Tate I was reading some old thread about Roulette and when I get some time I want to share with you some variations I have been toying with online.
Although I am currently preoccupied with a Totals method I am trying to get my head around. In fact, if nobody minds I feel like it would help me to post about it in order to fine tune somethings. I am hoping to have a good idea of the parameters set in time for April 1st.
In the meantime I may use NHL and NBA totals to practice/paper trade with a mock 401G account.
I have been reading some of the NHL total threads and studying total reports as of late. I looked up an old baseball streaks system I purchased years ago and I am now trying to set some "rules" for applying it to totals along with a betting progression with a goal of winning one unit per session. A session could be several games over a week or it could be one game. A new session begins after one unit is won.
Ok lets assume a bankroll for this method of $2000. Divide it by 4 = $500
This will be our stop loss. So as to risk only 25% of our bankroll. Our first wager will be to win one $20.00 unit.
What I am thinking is take the top 5 nhl teams with the most overs so far. I think this will work for the NBA as well but since hockey scores resemble baseball scores more so I want to back test it with a couple NHL teams firstly.
Tonight the Carolina team qualifies as a play on the Over. We wait for a "signal" in other words wait until a game is played that goes over. The following game we bet over hoping for a streak of overs. We only bet Over teams to go Over. And only after they stop going under and go over one game will we begin wagering on the second/next game to go over.
Carolina has gone over the last two games so tonight would actually be the second time we wager on them to go over having won a unit already. If a wager is lost we wait until another signal to start betting again so as to never be on the WRONG side of a prolonged under streak. A loss in the prior game calls for an increase of one unit on the second wager. A second loss calls for a 3 unit wager at the beginning of the next series after the next Over signal is rec'd. A win on the 3rd wager brings you back to even and the next wager goes back to 1 unit in order to be up 1 unit after a win.
I am going to try and post the totals report and back test it to try and give a better idea. The other teams I have tried this with all showed plus money/units lets see where Carolina would put us if we started it at the beginning of the season.
Here is a link to the totals report for all teams.
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nhl/against-the-spread/
Just look at how many times a team goes on streaks of 3,4,5 Overs in a row. We can make profits every time we see three overs in a row. We can also profit when it goes
OV Signal game. Bet one unit on the next game to go Over
Un Loss = -1 Wait for next signal game
Over Signal game. Bet 2 units next game to go over
Over Win = up 1 unit Bet one unit on next game to over. We are hoping to catch the beginning of a streak.
Un Loss = -1 Stop and wait for an Over
Over Signal Game. Bet 2units on next game to go Over.
Over Win = up one unit. Bet one unit on next game to go Ov
Over Win = +2 units. Bet 1 unit on next game to go over.
Over Win = +3 Units Bet 1 unit on next game to go Over
Under Lose = +2 Stop and wait for signal then bet 2 units
Under
Under
Under
Over Signal game bet 2 units on next game
Under Lose = 0 (even)
Over Signal game bet 3 units on next game Over
Over Win = +3 units
After a loss increase by one. After 4 losses in a row we need to win two in a row to recoup all losses and increase our profits by one unit.
bet 1 L= -1
bet 2 L= -3
bet3 L= -6
bet 4 L = -10 ( fourth loss in a row equals $200.00 of our $500 block)
bet 5 W= -5
bet 6 W= + 1 unit profit
Ok I cannot get Carolinas report to formatt correctly in here so I may do it on paper to see where it ends up and type it in here.
10-9 Ov signal
10-11 bet 1 ov = Win +1
10-13 bet 1 ov = Loss back to even 0
10-19 signal
10-20 bet 2 units Ov = Loss -2
10-24 signal
10-26 bet 3 Ov = Win +1
10-27 bet 1 unit Ov = Win +2
10-31 push
11-3 push
11-5 Under Loss = +1 ytd
11-10 Signal
11-12 Bet 2 units Ov = Win +3
11-14 Bet 1 unit Ov = Win +4
11-16 Bet 1 = Loss +3
11-21 Signal
11-23 Bet 2 units Ov = Win +5
11-24 Bet 1 Unit Ov = Win +6 ytd
11-28 bet 1 unit Un = Loss +5
11-30 Signal
12-1 bet 2 units Ov = Win +7
12-3 bet 1 Un = Loss +6
12-8 signal
12-9 bet 2 units Ov = Win +8 ytd
12-12 Push
12-14 bet 1 unit Ov = Win + 9 ytd
12-15 bet 1 unit Ov = Win +10
12-18 bet 1 unit Un = Loss + 9 ytd
12-20 Signal
12-22 bet 2units Un = Loss + 7
12-26 signal
12-28 bet 3 units Ov = Win +10
12-29 bet 1 unit Un= Loss +9
1-2 bet 2 unit Ov = Win +11
1-4 bet 1 unit Ov = Win + 12
1-5 bet 1 unit Un= Loss +11
1-12 signal
1-15 bet 2 units Ov = Win +13 ytd
1-17 Push
1-18 bet 1 unit Ov = +14
1-21 bet 1 unit Un = Loss +13 ytd
1-22 signal
1-29 bet 2 units Un = Loss +11
2-9 signal
2-12 bet 3 units Un = Loss +8
2-16 signal
2-18 bet 4 units Ov = Win +12
2-19 Bet 3 units Un = Loss +9
2-21 signal
2-22 Bet 4 units Ov = Win +13
2-26 tonights game would be a 1 unit bet to go up one more unit on the session. The line is 5.5 as I write this it is 1-1 in the 2nd period.
Back with more later..... I gotta let this sink in and maybe want to back test the other leaders, Nashville, Ottawa, Washington,
Edmonton
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</td> </tr> <tr class="bg2" align="right" height="17" valign="center"> <td align="left">Feb 26</td> <td align="center">New Jersey </td> <td align="center">
</td> <td align="center">5.5</td></tr></tbody></table>
Hey Tate I was reading some old thread about Roulette and when I get some time I want to share with you some variations I have been toying with online.
Although I am currently preoccupied with a Totals method I am trying to get my head around. In fact, if nobody minds I feel like it would help me to post about it in order to fine tune somethings. I am hoping to have a good idea of the parameters set in time for April 1st.
In the meantime I may use NHL and NBA totals to practice/paper trade with a mock 401G account.
I have been reading some of the NHL total threads and studying total reports as of late. I looked up an old baseball streaks system I purchased years ago and I am now trying to set some "rules" for applying it to totals along with a betting progression with a goal of winning one unit per session. A session could be several games over a week or it could be one game. A new session begins after one unit is won.
Ok lets assume a bankroll for this method of $2000. Divide it by 4 = $500
This will be our stop loss. So as to risk only 25% of our bankroll. Our first wager will be to win one $20.00 unit.
What I am thinking is take the top 5 nhl teams with the most overs so far. I think this will work for the NBA as well but since hockey scores resemble baseball scores more so I want to back test it with a couple NHL teams firstly.
Tonight the Carolina team qualifies as a play on the Over. We wait for a "signal" in other words wait until a game is played that goes over. The following game we bet over hoping for a streak of overs. We only bet Over teams to go Over. And only after they stop going under and go over one game will we begin wagering on the second/next game to go over.
Carolina has gone over the last two games so tonight would actually be the second time we wager on them to go over having won a unit already. If a wager is lost we wait until another signal to start betting again so as to never be on the WRONG side of a prolonged under streak. A loss in the prior game calls for an increase of one unit on the second wager. A second loss calls for a 3 unit wager at the beginning of the next series after the next Over signal is rec'd. A win on the 3rd wager brings you back to even and the next wager goes back to 1 unit in order to be up 1 unit after a win.
I am going to try and post the totals report and back test it to try and give a better idea. The other teams I have tried this with all showed plus money/units lets see where Carolina would put us if we started it at the beginning of the season.
Here is a link to the totals report for all teams.
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nhl/against-the-spread/
Just look at how many times a team goes on streaks of 3,4,5 Overs in a row. We can make profits every time we see three overs in a row. We can also profit when it goes
OV Signal game. Bet one unit on the next game to go Over
Un Loss = -1 Wait for next signal game
Over Signal game. Bet 2 units next game to go over
Over Win = up 1 unit Bet one unit on next game to over. We are hoping to catch the beginning of a streak.
Un Loss = -1 Stop and wait for an Over
Over Signal Game. Bet 2units on next game to go Over.
Over Win = up one unit. Bet one unit on next game to go Ov
Over Win = +2 units. Bet 1 unit on next game to go over.
Over Win = +3 Units Bet 1 unit on next game to go Over
Under Lose = +2 Stop and wait for signal then bet 2 units
Under
Under
Under
Over Signal game bet 2 units on next game
Under Lose = 0 (even)
Over Signal game bet 3 units on next game Over
Over Win = +3 units
After a loss increase by one. After 4 losses in a row we need to win two in a row to recoup all losses and increase our profits by one unit.
bet 1 L= -1
bet 2 L= -3
bet3 L= -6
bet 4 L = -10 ( fourth loss in a row equals $200.00 of our $500 block)
bet 5 W= -5
bet 6 W= + 1 unit profit
Ok I cannot get Carolinas report to formatt correctly in here so I may do it on paper to see where it ends up and type it in here.
10-9 Ov signal
10-11 bet 1 ov = Win +1
10-13 bet 1 ov = Loss back to even 0
10-19 signal
10-20 bet 2 units Ov = Loss -2
10-24 signal
10-26 bet 3 Ov = Win +1
10-27 bet 1 unit Ov = Win +2
10-31 push
11-3 push
11-5 Under Loss = +1 ytd
11-10 Signal
11-12 Bet 2 units Ov = Win +3
11-14 Bet 1 unit Ov = Win +4
11-16 Bet 1 = Loss +3
11-21 Signal
11-23 Bet 2 units Ov = Win +5
11-24 Bet 1 Unit Ov = Win +6 ytd
11-28 bet 1 unit Un = Loss +5
11-30 Signal
12-1 bet 2 units Ov = Win +7
12-3 bet 1 Un = Loss +6
12-8 signal
12-9 bet 2 units Ov = Win +8 ytd
12-12 Push
12-14 bet 1 unit Ov = Win + 9 ytd
12-15 bet 1 unit Ov = Win +10
12-18 bet 1 unit Un = Loss + 9 ytd
12-20 Signal
12-22 bet 2units Un = Loss + 7
12-26 signal
12-28 bet 3 units Ov = Win +10
12-29 bet 1 unit Un= Loss +9
1-2 bet 2 unit Ov = Win +11
1-4 bet 1 unit Ov = Win + 12
1-5 bet 1 unit Un= Loss +11
1-12 signal
1-15 bet 2 units Ov = Win +13 ytd
1-17 Push
1-18 bet 1 unit Ov = +14
1-21 bet 1 unit Un = Loss +13 ytd
1-22 signal
1-29 bet 2 units Un = Loss +11
2-9 signal
2-12 bet 3 units Un = Loss +8
2-16 signal
2-18 bet 4 units Ov = Win +12
2-19 Bet 3 units Un = Loss +9
2-21 signal
2-22 Bet 4 units Ov = Win +13
2-26 tonights game would be a 1 unit bet to go up one more unit on the session. The line is 5.5 as I write this it is 1-1 in the 2nd period.
Back with more later..... I gotta let this sink in and maybe want to back test the other leaders, Nashville, Ottawa, Washington,
Edmonton
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</td> </tr> <tr class="bg2" align="right" height="17" valign="center"> <td align="left">Feb 26</td> <td align="center">New Jersey </td> <td align="center">
</td> <td align="center">5.5</td></tr></tbody></table>
The Carolina game went Under tonight. So we stop and wait for an Over game. I would be happy to be up 12 or 13 units with one team at this point in the season. Relatively low risk and my ROI on $2000 is better than most places I could think of to put it.
In the NBA tonight. Two games Qualified as a play.
Phoenix went over in their last game and they are one of the top 5 over teams in the NBA also Golden State is on a running streak of 5 Overs.
The Phx game with Memphis is already a final and it went over. GS is on pace at the half to go Over.
Another variation would be to take an under team like San Antonio and wager just the opposite of what we have talked about so far. Wait for an Under game as a signal then bet them to go Under until they don't. I think they had a stretch of 10 unders at one point in the season. By betting on these streaks we can ride along until the oddsmakers and the market catches up. I personally have stretches where I cannot find the time to handicap or I spend several hours and still come up with the wrong side so I would like to develop something relatively mechanical that stands a good chance to win.
In Roulette betting red or black would be 50/50 if it were not for zero and double zero. By betting totals we have a true 50/50 chance at being on the right side.
Mini Baccarat is also 50/50 but you have to pay commision on bank wagers.
By using a mini progression we should be able to show profits even if our record is less than 50% with this totals method.
If your bankroll permits I could see running several different sequences at one time. By using 5 over teams and or 5 under teams we should get at least one play a day and sometimes more. I am bad at posting plays at the same time every day so this method is easy for someone to look at the totals report and figure out the plays on their own.
I may start a thread somewhere that tracks some NHL and NBA stuff until opening day.
I want to pick out some teams that historically have more overs than unders or teams we think could have a lot of overs this year. Detroit could be one with that line-up and questionable bull pen. Stadiums are another way to select Over teams.
In baseball I am not comfortable betting unders very often. ( Unless Hirschbeck or Eddings is behind the plate) First of all you never know if you won until the last out. I love betting on an over that is a winner by the 5th or 6th inning so I think thats where I will begin.
In the NBA tonight. Two games Qualified as a play.
Phoenix went over in their last game and they are one of the top 5 over teams in the NBA also Golden State is on a running streak of 5 Overs.
The Phx game with Memphis is already a final and it went over. GS is on pace at the half to go Over.
Another variation would be to take an under team like San Antonio and wager just the opposite of what we have talked about so far. Wait for an Under game as a signal then bet them to go Under until they don't. I think they had a stretch of 10 unders at one point in the season. By betting on these streaks we can ride along until the oddsmakers and the market catches up. I personally have stretches where I cannot find the time to handicap or I spend several hours and still come up with the wrong side so I would like to develop something relatively mechanical that stands a good chance to win.
In Roulette betting red or black would be 50/50 if it were not for zero and double zero. By betting totals we have a true 50/50 chance at being on the right side.
Mini Baccarat is also 50/50 but you have to pay commision on bank wagers.
By using a mini progression we should be able to show profits even if our record is less than 50% with this totals method.
If your bankroll permits I could see running several different sequences at one time. By using 5 over teams and or 5 under teams we should get at least one play a day and sometimes more. I am bad at posting plays at the same time every day so this method is easy for someone to look at the totals report and figure out the plays on their own.
I may start a thread somewhere that tracks some NHL and NBA stuff until opening day.
I want to pick out some teams that historically have more overs than unders or teams we think could have a lot of overs this year. Detroit could be one with that line-up and questionable bull pen. Stadiums are another way to select Over teams.
In baseball I am not comfortable betting unders very often. ( Unless Hirschbeck or Eddings is behind the plate) First of all you never know if you won until the last out. I love betting on an over that is a winner by the 5th or 6th inning so I think thats where I will begin.
