Guys -- There are still plenty of opportunities to make money live betting at MB. I still plan my nights and weekends around their Live Betting markets.
However, you cannot simply hope to bet +$ when team A is down, in the hope that they will come back and you can bet +$ on the other side, locking in profit (as some of you have been attempting to do). As some posters have properly pointed out above, that's a long run losing strategy.
Instead, you need to find wagering opportunities that, by themselves, you deem to have a positive expectation of value ("+EV"). Think of each wager as its own event, separate and aside from any others you have or will take later in the game. Find as many +EV wagers as you can, throughout the game, and by definition you will come out ahead IN THE LONG RUN (not on every game). Now, the tougher part is finding the +EV opportunities, and that will take some skill. But trust me, the opportunities are out there, ON EVERY GAME at some point or another.
If you make enough +EV wagers, you will tend to end up with green on both sides of many of the games you play (I do). Another thing guys -- don't be afraid to make offers -- you'll be surprised at how often they are accepted (in part or in whole). Almost any time you make an offer, it should be at a price that you deem to be +EV for you, and -EV for anyone accepting (unless you're desperate to hedge out of a large position and don't mind laying some not so great odds in order to do so).
So there it is -- make +EV offers, and hunt for offers that others have made that are +EV when you accept. It sounds like the strategy that some of you have been employing has been ignoring the EV of any given situation, instead relying on hope (that the game will swing the other way). Betting on hope is not going to win you money -- you might as well just pick a team before the game starts and hope things go your way. Conceptually, thats' all you're really doing.
One last word -- and then I have to get some work done: despite what I stated above, this is not to suggest that betting the team that is down, at say, +250 (e.g., NC last night) isn't a smart move IN SOME SITUATIONS. You may very well decide that taking a home team that is down early and very capable of making a huge run is a highly +EV situation (that is, you are nearly certain that the team will make the run later in the game). A great example of this was the Florida vs. Tennessee game the other night, where FL lead throughout the first half against an explosive Tenn team at home (that I just knew was going to make a huge run against my beloved Gators). But when you make this bet, you should be doing it because you deem it to be +EV, not because you are blindly betting the team that is down and hoping the game will swing. In other situations, you might be betting the team that is up, because you deem the current line to be +EV based on your belief that this is as close as the game will be, and, although you have to lay -280 right now, there is a very good chance that it will soon be -1200 very soon when they run away with it.
I make money most nights live betting on MB, and it is the best thing going out there right now.
I don't have time to edit this, so apologies for the stream-of-consciousness format. I hope this helps some of you.
without being able to calculate the true odds live betting is suicide and like all sports, the TV doesnt give a correct assessment of the Game. Local Radio commentators know their Teams inside out and listening to them will produce some good bets within those confines. :drink:
