note: any nonsensical answers will be moved to RR. I will start:
forecasting:
Having several outs that offer early lines such as Bookmaker is of fundamental importance. Many books will throw out early numbers and let the sharps set the line, The Greek is also an excellent example. If you have a strong opinion on which way the line will move you are at an excellent advantage. I would suggest that you need to be at least 60% sure the line will move in your favor before you place the bet. This is not an exact science, and from time to time the line may go against your direction, but those who have been in the industry for a long time seem to develop an "additional" sense for this. One way to improve on this and see how you do is to simply write down all the openers, and the predict the closing numbers and see what percentage you can hit. Betting early and getting the best of the line will open up several middle or scalp opportunities or will allow you to enter into the game with the best possible number.
One recent example I can offer from last night is the Kings @ Wings NHL match-up. Pinnacle opened with the Kings @ +350 on the ML for regulation. Despite knowing how good the wings are and how terrible the kings are, this number was obviously high (imo) this is something you really develop a feel for, especially in your favorite sports, in fact, I would bet that I can successfully predict the move in certain games in the NHL and CFL 70% of the time as those are my favorite sports. Now, if you know for a fact that the number will move in your favor (imo) it is a good play to successfully play a unit or 1/2 unit on that game, whether you like the kings or not, you now have "value" on that game.
Notice, this wager was placed @ 230pm the day before the game, and the +350 probably lasted for several hours the day before, by game time it was down to about +300 to +320.
Please feel free to further comment of "forecasting" or to add another "element" which is vital to being successful at winning at sports betting.
forecasting:
Having several outs that offer early lines such as Bookmaker is of fundamental importance. Many books will throw out early numbers and let the sharps set the line, The Greek is also an excellent example. If you have a strong opinion on which way the line will move you are at an excellent advantage. I would suggest that you need to be at least 60% sure the line will move in your favor before you place the bet. This is not an exact science, and from time to time the line may go against your direction, but those who have been in the industry for a long time seem to develop an "additional" sense for this. One way to improve on this and see how you do is to simply write down all the openers, and the predict the closing numbers and see what percentage you can hit. Betting early and getting the best of the line will open up several middle or scalp opportunities or will allow you to enter into the game with the best possible number.
One recent example I can offer from last night is the Kings @ Wings NHL match-up. Pinnacle opened with the Kings @ +350 on the ML for regulation. Despite knowing how good the wings are and how terrible the kings are, this number was obviously high (imo) this is something you really develop a feel for, especially in your favorite sports, in fact, I would bet that I can successfully predict the move in certain games in the NHL and CFL 70% of the time as those are my favorite sports. Now, if you know for a fact that the number will move in your favor (imo) it is a good play to successfully play a unit or 1/2 unit on that game, whether you like the kings or not, you now have "value" on that game.
Notice, this wager was placed @ 230pm the day before the game, and the +350 probably lasted for several hours the day before, by game time it was down to about +300 to +320.
Please feel free to further comment of "forecasting" or to add another "element" which is vital to being successful at winning at sports betting.
