Pitch Counts In Baseball

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Rx. Senior
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Any way to assess the expected pitch count for both Teams or starters in a Game? I'm a greenhorn in Baseball. :drink:
 

Rx God
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starters yes ! You can expect that they won't exceed a certain number of pitches, often about a 100. Sometimes its even announced beforehand... Joe Wanker coming back from injury will be on an 80 pitch count tonight.

The guy could be blown out in 1st inning and be gone in 25 pitches. Early in the season pitchers don't go as deep, like 110 pitches that they might do in June.

100 pitches is a number where the manager often thinks about pulling the guy out.
 

Rx. Senior
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Thanks Doug, working on a MLB system that may incorporate the pitching count to some degree. :drink:
 

Rx God
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Its a tough spot to cap. One key thing is the starter needs to pitch 5 innings to get credit for a Win. The guy might have a fortunate lead like 4-1 after four, but be losing his stuff, and lucky to have the lead. The manager lets him pitch another inning routinely to have a chance to get the "W", even if he falters in the 5th.

Don't get trapped into betting ( early season) props like X over 90 pitches, when his average is 103 pitches.
 

THINK OUTSIDE THE BOX.
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Thanks Doug, working on a MLB system that may incorporate the pitching count to some degree. :drink:


Good luck Winny. Pitch counts piss me off. Some managers use them as the bible instead of a guide....like Jim Tracey. Guy could be winning 2-0 , throwing a 3 hit shutout but he is over 104 pitches say, and he yanks him in the 9th and the bullpen blows the game.
 

Rx. Senior
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Specifically I'm looking to get an expected pitch count for a Game. I would think that would mean matching the Pitchers average count to the oppositions count or batting hits. As I said I'm a greenhorn at Baseball but I need to get this formulated in order to see if its significant, anyone who helps I'm willing to share my already far down the road system with. :drink:
 

Rx God
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You need to know each teams relief pitchers very well, then. Who is likely to be used.
 

Official Rx music critic and beer snob
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Studs rarely go past 115 pitches. I never use pitch counts in handicapping, but I will look at bullpens. I look for overs when a bullpen has been overworked (4+pitchers used for 2-3 straight games).
 

Rx. Senior
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Doug,
I'm not looking for exact situations, only leans. I'm looking for a ballpark figure where I can say whether the lean will be high or low, from that there is direct correlation to scoring runs which I can price accordingly along with other significant factors. :drink:
 

Rx. Senior
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Studs rarely go past 115 pitches. I never use pitch counts in handicapping, but I will look at bullpens. I look for overs when a bullpen has been overworked (4+pitchers used for 2-3 straight games).

Ok, I've decided to start a thread outlining my thoughts and you Guys can jump in when you think. :drink:
 

Official Rx music critic and beer snob
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I will amend my post about pitch counts. They are valuable in fading young pitchers when they climb over 150 innings for the first time.
 

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Baseball Prospectus web site has a pitchers abuse rating so you can see who has been overworked. Lists average pitch counts. Dice-K averaged 108.7 pitchers per game.
 

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Baseball Prospectus web site has a pitchers abuse rating so you can see who has been overworked. Lists average pitch counts. Dice-K averaged 108.7 pitchers per game.

He averaged way more in the Japanese leagues so I doubt it will affect him like it would others.
 

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