Accenture Match-Play Thoughts

Ok, I know this is not the Golf Forum. But, I figure not many people look in it. And with the style of this tourney I think a lot of people want to know about this tourney.

If this needs to be moved go for it, but it would be nice to have it in the big forum for a couple days.

So to those that are unfamiliar with this tourney it is a match-play, single elimination tourney. Players are ranked and then placed in a 64 man bracket, and then it becomes like March Madness in the course of one week. These guys have to win 6 matches, with some of them being 36 hole formats, in order to win the tourney.

Match play is a style that is only used in very few tourneys, and it is a style where only two players can play. You basically go hole by hole. If one person wins a hole they get 1 point. If a hole is pushed no score is recorded and players move on to the next hole.

I know people who don't even watch golf, yet become Accenture Madness freaks when this thing comes on each year. It is awesome to bet on, and creates one of the only venues in golf where you have an actual tourney format, rather then just a free for all.

Like I said this tourney can be awesome for betting. Plenty of oppertunities to bet, and more money then normal is placed on specifically the player vs. player match ups, then in free-for all tourneys. Ways I see people finding an edge are as follows:

- Players are seeded according to how they have done previous. What is probably one of the bigger factors when someone who does not know a lot about golf bets, who is ranked higher. This is something people naturally do, and with more wagers placed on this then normal, real sharp % of money decreases into the entire pool. Thus if you can seed the guys better, and find places where realistically someone should not be seeded higher, you can find value like in any other sport.

-Inside info. Golf is crazy, if you know a couple guys who play or talk to your course pros, you learn that golfers are some of the most laid back guys off the course. They don't really worry about injury reporting because it does not matter as it is a personal competition. Thus, probably more relevant info is actually found out by checking sources or news sites, then you might find in some of the more "mainstream" sports.

-players who are good match-play players. something that is debated, but I believe to be true is that a player must completely get into a different mind set when in a match. You need to be smarter and mentally stronger to win again and again in matchplay. You are constantly weighing what you need to do to advance. Players think about "what they must do" much more in a matchplay then a regular tourney. thus imo if you can intimidate your opponent or get them rattled you can beat them much easier. And the players that know this imo do much better.

Thats about all for now, but would love to get some talk going about this tourney as it starts in about a week, and imo it is the best tourney to watch in golf.

Bluemyboy

Sounds like it will be an interesting tournament and a fun one to watch but a difficult one to handicap. Personally I will almost always look for small but live dogs to play (even money at worst). My main rule of thumb is to first do my homework on the golf course itself because I am a firm believer in the old golf axiom "courses for horses"..From there I try to identify players who:

1. Have played well on The Gallery Golf Club at Dove Mountain in Tuscon itself in the past. Naturally Tiger is going to pop right up because I happen to know he is 25-6 in Accucenture match play competition (all venues) but only 2-1 at The Gallery after Austrailian Nick O'Hearn beat him last year in the third round on the 20th hole. This will be the second year in a row the tournament is played at The Gallery.

Last year's winner was Swede Henrik Stenson who beat Aussie Geoff Olgilvy 2 and 1..South African Trevor Immelman came in third defeating US player Chad Campbell 4 and 2.

2. Players who are currently in good form statistically in the still young PGA Tour 2008 season.

3. Players (beside Tiger) who traditionally do well in match play competition - for example Chris Dimarco, David Toms, and the Euro/Aussie pros who seem to really do well in match play.

4. After checking out the type of course The Gallery is - identifying players who do well on that type of track.


Tiger is going to be over priced and IMHO will offer little value at any point in the tournament (watch him win now).

Without getting to long winded I will take a harder look when match-up prices are posted and make a pick or two in this thread.

I should mention, although I don't make many golf picks I was pretty cold last year on the few occasions I stuck my neck out here on The Rx.com..


BOL. wil..

thanks a lot wil.

Fade Rail's selections...if the sport doesn't have a fuzzy yellow ball, Rail doesn't know jack!

80% of the players hate this tournament.

bellyputter

80% of the players hate this tournament.
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No doubt - matchplay puts a lot more pressure on players than medal play does where it is the player against the course. Match play pits a single player against another single player day after day (if you continue to win).

Another aspect is it gives the unknowns of the golf world a shot at instant recognition if they can knock off a big name. Ask young pro Anthony Kim who's best finish of his short two plus years on tour is a tie for second at the Valero Texas Open in 2006.. Unless someone else withdraws (Ernie Els and Brett Wetterich both withdrew already) Kim who managed at tie for 3rd at The Bob Hope Classic last month will draw Tiger in the first round of the Accenture Match-Play Tournament.

Anything can happen - but you can bet your last cent that the suits who are sponsoring the Accenture are not rooting for Anthony Kim to pull any kind of upset over super crowd pleaser and TV ratings star Tiger Woods....

Another interesting unofficial first round match-up is J.B. Holmes vs Phil Mickelson. Holmes just beat Lefty in a playoff two weeks ago to win the FBR Open in Scottsdale Az..

Both match-ups could change if there is another withdrawal from the 64 man field..

Holmes' 13-foot birdie putt on 18 at TPC of Scottsdale Az. forced a playoff with Lefty, then moments later he sank an 8-footer on the same hole after a monster 359-yard drive to win the tournament for the second time in three years.

Last Friday Mickelson shocked the golf world by taking an 11 on the 14th hole at Pebble Beach on his way to a miss the cut 78 for the day.

However if you watched Lefty closer during the round the 11 was was just a mercy killing that put him out of his misery due to a sudden and unexplained case of the yips that the tricky greens at Pebble Beach inflicted on him that day.

The 11 was likely his worst single-hole score in all his years on tour.

For the morbidly curious who didn't see Michelson's debacle, it went like this:
At the uphill, dogleg right 14th hole on Pebble Beach, Mickelson twice hooked his second shot out of bounds with his hybrid club while trying to lay up. He then punched a 5-iron up the fairway, but his 92-yard approach bounced off the green and into a patch of mud near a tree. He chunked his wedge shot, pitched again, and two putted for a smoth pair of pocket aces. hno:




wil..

Anything can happen - but you can bet your last cent that the suits who are sponsoring the Accenture are not rooting for Anthony Kim to pull any kind of upset over super crowd pleaser and TV ratings star Tiger Woods....

Yeah, Tiger leaves and so does half the audience.

As far as players not liking this format, all I can say is the ones that do are the ones you should bet on imo. They are the ones who will have the mental edges.

Wil, you know when they post the official matchups, or in other words any idea when I should see some lines?

Bluemyboy

Wil, you know when they post the official matchups, or in other words any idea when I should see some lines?<!-- / message -->

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Hard to really say because of the chance of a late cancellation but I am sure not long after deadline when the seeded field of 64 must be set and released to the public which will by on Sunday, February 17, 2008 at The Bracket Announcement Ceremony at 7:00PM EST.

Right now the entire pre-tournament seedings can be effected if one or more of the qualified and invited players for any good reason (injury or family crisis for example) had to withdraw from the competition. Until Sunday at 7:00PM EST an alternate will be called up to replace withdrawn players.

My guess is with the actual start scheduled for next Wednesday, February 20th. is that you will see betable match-up prices late on Sunday night February 18th at the usual books that post lines before the others.

Please remember I am only taking a guess here and there is a chance that some books may post prices earlier with a disclaimer that the two participants in any given match MUST play each other or there is no action in the event of a change in the seedings.

Once the seedings are actually set permanately and any given player cannot compete for any reason his first round opponet most likely will get a bye and an automatic advance into the second round. This is something that could occur if for example a player injured himself on the driving range next Wednesday (Feb 20th.) morning warming up and couldn't go or a if a player was injured in either of next Monday or Tuesday's parctice rounds. Or for that matter trips and breaks a leg in the shower between now and tee time.

Bottom line any withdrawal's after the official announcement of matchups on Sunday at 7PM EST will most likely will result in a forfeit for that player and his opponet will advance to round two.

In this case bettors should check the individual house rules of where they play to see what that particular books does in the case of a did not compete situation. Unlikely to happen but not impossible.

Match Play Explained:

Match Play: Match Play is the game played by holes.

<!--startclickprintexclude--><!--endclickprintexclude-->Opponent: In match play it is never a competitor, always an opponent or player.

Reckoning of Hole (status of match): Reckoning of holes is kept by the terms: so many "holes up," or "all square" and so many "holes to play."

Halved Hole: A hole is halved when each side holes out in the same number of strokes.

All Square: A match is all square when each side has won the same number of holes as the other side, or when each hole has been halved.

Dormie: A match is dormie when a side is as many holes up as there are holes remaining to be played.

Concession of next stroke, hole or match (Rule 2-4): When the opponent's ball is at rest or is deemed to be at rest under Rule 16-2, the player may concede the opponent to have holed out with his next stroke and the ball may be removed by either side with a club or otherwise. A player may concede a hole or a match at any time prior to the conclusion of the hole or the match. Concession of a stroke, hole or match may not be declined or withdrawn.

Scoring: Match play is scored by holes and each hole is scored by strokes. A player will try to win more holes than his opponent in the course of a match, there are no holes awarded for a half and no holes are carried over. Players will try to win as many holes as possible until they cannot be mathmatically caught.

An example: Player A leads Player B by three holes with three holes to go. Player A now has Player B dormie. If Player A were to win the next hole, they will be up four holes with two to play. The match is now over, with player A winning 4 & 2. Even a half on the next hole would mean Player A is up three holes with two remaining, thus the match ends 3 &2.



wil.<SCRIPT language=JavaScript src="/.element/ssi/js/1.0/sponsored_links.js" type=text/javascript></SCRIPT>

I cant wait to fade Tiger here, he did most of his damage at LACosta which suited his game. Furyk is also a mess right now

Rail - Gallery on paper looks like a course that will favor a player like Tiger.

The Gallery Golf Club at Dove Mountain, South Course is a John Fought-design that opened in December of 2003. The 7,351-yard, par-72 layout will provide a challenging test for the best players in the world during the World Golf Championships - Accenture Match Play Championship.

My comments about what Tiger might do in parenthesis, Woods played this course three times last year defeating JJ Henry 3 and 2 and Tim Clark 5 and 4 and losing to Nick O'Hern 1 down after 20 holes..


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Hole 1
Par 5 | 588 Yards (Nice birdie hole for Tiger (all 3 days last year) but a bit long for non-bombers to reach in two)
This downhill opening hole has a generous landing area, though a left bunker comes into play. The green is protected by two bunkers; located dangerously near a wash on the left.
Hole 2
Par 4 | 467 Yards (take 4 and say thank you)
Drives need to carry the lake. A right-to-left shot to the right side of the fairway near the lake sets up the best approach shot. The putting surface is protected front left and short right, forcing players to play right to left with their approach shots.
Hole 3
Par 35 | 225 Yards (another par is very good score hole)
The longest par 3 on the course forces players to hit a downhill tee shot that plays across diagonally placed bunkers to reach the green.
Hole 4
Par 4 | 495 Yards (only long hitters need apply for threes)
This long, dogleg left requires a drive that carries a wash to find the fairway. The approach to the green is open in front; while a bunker protects the front left of the surface. An elevated green nearly three feet above natural grade forces a precise second shot.
Hole 5
Par 5 | 635 Yards (lay up hole for the field - the anti Tiger par 5)
The longest par 5 on the course is flanked by a wash on the right. In all likelihood three carefully played shots are needed to reach the distant green. The landing area is generous once it skirts a wash 200 yards from the tee on the left. A wide green with a narrow approach and a small, wide fore-bunker greets players.
Hole 6
Par 4 | 450 Yards (this hole played 2 over by Tiger last year. He needs to play better here)
Tee shots play into a natural swale that moves diagonally right to left. A bunker on the right side calls for a slight right-to-left shot from the tee. The green is on top of a ridge above the swale, with two bunkers stacked into the left face of the ridge to challenge approach shots.
Hole 7
Par 4 | 357 Yards (Reachable off the tee - birdie hole for many)
The shortest par 4 on the course plays slightly downhill and allows a drive to make the green if it carries a pot bunker at the 240-yard mark. A long, narrow green guarded on the front left by an ominous bunker calls for a precise approach shot. Look for plenty of birdies and even an occasional eagle.
Hole 8
Par 3 | 171 Yards (should'nt be a problem for Tiger to make 3s but tricky green and will see it's share of 4s)
This is the shortest par 3 on the course. A deep, sandy wash borders the entire right side of this hole that features a putting surface fitted around the left edge of the wash. Missed shots to the right can be punishing.
Hole 9
Par 4 | 448 Yards (Pin should be approachable after long accuarate tee shot)
Here, the course turns uphill, offering a wide fairway driving zone. There is a bunker on the right edge of the fairway that guards the prime area to play at the green. Three fore-bunkers, 30 yards short of the green, are deceptive images on approach. A generous green allows long, undulating putts.
Hole 10
Par 5 | 534 Yards (3 birdies for Tiger last year here - cake)
The entire length of this hole climbs uphill. The landing area is wide, but a bunker calls for play to its left. The second shot can be played left of the wash separating the fairway, or right for a simpler approach shot. The green lies above the wash on its right edge.
Hole 11
Par 4 | 402 Yards (Hole has options that only play into Tiger's strength - he is one hell of a creative shotmaker)
This hole is slightly uphill, with a long bunker marking the best line to play the tee shot. Players' second shots must carry a ravine that bisects the fairway 30 yards in front of the putting surface. The green tops a ridge that falls away front and back and is guarded by right bunkers.
Hole 12
Par 4 | 362 Yards (Three birdies last year by Woods - cake part two)
A long, fairway bunker on the right guards the prime landing area. Precise approach shots will find the ridge-top putting surface.
Hole 13
Par 4 | 479 Yards (difficult hole where par is welcome - even to Tiger)
The tee is nearly 30 feet above the landing area, with two bunkers on the right. As the hole bends right, the green is visible. Two left bunkers protect the entrance to the green; a fore-bunker to the right adds balance to the approach. Numerous subtle movements make putting difficult.
Hole 14
Par 3 | 192 Yards (bridable par 3 - Tiger 2-3-3 LY)
This hole is slightly downhill with an elevated tee. Two ironwood trees border each side of the entrance to the greens complex. The putting surface has an open in front, allowing accurate approach shots to bounce onto the green.
Hole 15
Par 4 | 435 Yards (Critical hole that could decide a lot of matches - Tiger was conceded hole by O'hern LY to square match)
This hole is slightly uphill, with a forced carry over a swale and a bunker. The left side falls away into a wash, making this drive one of the most important on the course. A mesquite on the edge of the plateau marks the right edge of the fairway. An uphill approach to the narrow green demands accuracy.
Hole 16
Par 3 | 178 Yards (the field will all be grateful to make par here)
The shortest par 3 on the inward nine is still challenging, with the putting surface near the edge of a wash. The tee literally hangs on the edge of the wash and is positioned so the shot must carry two small bunkers to find the green.
Hole 17
Par 5 | 601 Yards (Difficult hole won by O'Hern with a 4 LY)
The hole bends left on each shot as it climbs uphill toward the clubhouse. Bunkers to the left and right mark the lines of play. Fairway bunkers on the right force second-shot accuracy. The putting surface is diagonal, right to left, with plenty of interesting movements.
Hole 18
Par 4 | 477 Yards (Tiger made clutch birdie LY to square match with O"Hern - very difficult to do)
Playing longer than its measured length, the finishing hole doglegs left and moves uphill. Drives are played to a wide fairway set in a swale that extends to the green. The green sits well above the fairway, protected by two, deep bunkers in front.


wil..

Anthony Kim(didn't play at Pebble) got bumped by Pat Perez.

bellyputter said:

Anthony Kim(didn't play at Pebble) got bumped by Pat Perez.

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what's your opinion on kim's game bp?

bellyputter

Anthony Kim(didn't play at Pebble) got bumped by Pat Perez.
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I know Kim for some reason skipped Pebble Beach but he got bumped into the field for Accenture when unfortunate Brett Wetterich withdrew because of a season ending shoulder injury.

Pat Perez also got in when Ernie Els withdrew. Right now Kim is tentatively penciled in to play against Woods in the first round and Perez if nothing changes (like another withdrawal) will face Steve Stricker in the first round.

Perez finishing 24th at Pebble Beach is what got him into position to make the Accenture field if there was a withdrawal. Kim was only fraction behind Perez but the second withdrawal made it a moot point as far as getting a spot in the Accenture goes.


The top 64 in the world automatically qualify and Australian Peter Lonard, ranked 67th, is next in line for a spot.




wil..

royboy_3831 said:

what's your opinion on kim's game bp?

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royboy, I have seen him play a few times and he is very impressive. He was run off at OU. He is his own worst enemy, but hopefully he matures.

bellyputter said:

royboy, I have seen him play a few times and he is very impressive. He was run off at OU. He is his own worst enemy, but hopefully he matures.

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that does not sound like someone I want to be betting on when they have a lot of pressure on them for some major shots down the line. who knows though. I highly doubt I will touch that matchup at all, beyond a pick on tiger in my bracket. if Kim even plays tiger.

wilheim said:

I know Kim for some reason skipped Pebble Beach but he got bumped into the field for Accenture when unfortunate Brett Wetterich withdrew because of a season ending shoulder injury.

Pat Perez also got in when Ernie Els withdrew. Right now Kim is tentatively penciled in to play against Woods in the first round and Perez if nothing changes (like another withdrawal) will face Steve Stricker in the first round.

Perez finishing 24th at Pebble Beach is what got him into position to make the Accenture field if there was a withdrawal. Kim was only fraction behind Perez but the second withdrawal made it a moot point as far as getting a spot in the Accenture goes.


The top 64 in the world automatically qualify and Australian Peter Lonard, ranked 67th, is next in line for a spot.




wil..

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wil, good info. I talked to a buddy of mine in Palm Springs today who was with Kim last night, and at that time Kim thought he was 1st alternate.

WGC Accenture Match Play: Ben Hogan Bracket
Wed 2/20 E. Els vs J. Byrd
08:00 AM 721 E. Els -217
722 J. Byrd +197
Wed 2/20 R. Goosen vs A. Romero
08:00 AM 723 R. Goosen -107
724 A. Romero -103
Wed 2/20 H. Stenson vs R. Allenby
08:00 AM 725 H. Stenson -135
726 R. Allenby +125
Wed 2/20 T. Immelman vs S. Katayama
08:00 AM 727 T. Immelman -153
728 S. Katayama +143
Wed 2/20 A. Scott vs B. Jones
08:00 AM 729 A. Scott -224
730 B. Jones +204
Wed 2/20 T. Taniguchi vs W. Austin
08:00 AM 731 T. Taniguchi +113
732 W. Austin -123
Wed 2/20 S. Garcia vs J. Senden
08:00 AM 733 S. Garcia -164
734 J. Senden +154
Wed 2/20 M. Kaymer vs B. Weekley
08:00 AM 735 M. Kaymer -117
736 B. Weekely +107


WGC Accenture Match Play: Bobby Jones Bracket
Wed 2/20 T. Woods vs J. B. Holmes
08:00 AM 701 T. Woods -388
702 J. B. Holmes +358
Wed 2/20 M. Weir vs A. Oberholser
08:00 AM 703 M. Weir -207
704 A. Oberholser +187
Wed 2/20 Z. Johnson vs D. Toms
08:00 AM 705 Z. Johnson -105
706 D. Toms -105
Wed 2/20 A. Baddeley vs M. Calcavecchia
08:00 AM 707 A. Baddeley -145
708 M. Calcavecchia +135
Wed 2/20 R. Sabbatini vs B. Dredge
08:00 AM 709 R. Sabbatini -191
710 B. Dredge +178
Wed 2/20 P. Casey vs R. Karlsson
08:00 AM 711 P. Casey -130
712 R. Karlsson +120
Wed 2/20 K. J. Choi vs C. Villegas
08:00 AM 713 K. J. Choi -160
714 C. Villegas +150
Wed 2/20 I. Poulter vs S. Hansen
08:00 AM 715 I. Poulter -145
716 S. Hansen +135

WGC Accenture Match Play: Gary Player Bracket
Wed 2/20 P. Mickelson vs P. Perez
08:00 AM 741 P. Mickelson -267
742 P. Perez +247
Wed 2/20 S. Appleby vs T. Clark
08:00 AM 743 S. Appleby -150
744 T. Clark +140
Wed 2/20 G. Ogilvy vs J. Leonard
08:00 AM 745 G. Ogilvy +113
746 J. Leonard -123
Wed 2/20 L. Westwood vs B. Snedeker
08:00 AM 747 L. Westwood -145
748 B. Snedeker +135
Wed 2/20 J. Rose vs R. Pampling
08:00 AM 749 J. Rose -170
750 R. Pampling +160
Wed 2/20 S. Verplank vs N. O'Hern
08:00 AM 751 S. Verplank -137
752 N. O'Hern +127
Wed 2/20 V. Singh vs P. Hanson
08:00 AM 753 V. Singh -188
754 P. Hanson +178
Wed 2/20 N. Fasth vs R. Green
08:00 AM 755 N. Fasth -133
756 R. Green +123

WGC Accenture Match Play: Odds to Win the Tournament
Wed 2/20 Will T. Woods Win The WGC Accenture Match Play?
08:00 AM 51 Yes +270
52 No -300


Wed 2/20 Odds to Win The WGC Accenture Match Play
08:00 AM 101 T. Woods +270
102 P. Mickelson +1192
103 S. Stricker +3438
104 E. Els +2175
105 A. Scott +1586
106 J. Furyk +3438
107 J. Rose +3438
108 R. Sabbatini +4399
109 K.J. Choi +3920
110 V. Singh +3438
111 P. Harrington +2175
112 S. Garcia +4399
113 H. Stenson +2468
114 A. Cabrera +7693
115 G. Ogilivy +7693
116 Z. Johnson +7693
117 A. Baddeley +7229
118 L. Westwood +4876
119 L. Donald +4399
120 T. Immelman +8585
121 M. Kaymer +5824
122 S. Cink +8282
123 N. Fasth +11818
124 I. Poulter +9292
125 P. Casey +6805
126 S. Verplank +5969
127 S. Ames +9090
128 T. Taniguchi +15252
129 R. Goosen +10202
130 R. Sterne +10202
131 S. Applebly +4236
132 M. Weir +6805
133 A. Oberholser +17777
134 T. Clark +15212
135 H. Mahan +8686
136 A. Romero +12727
137 W. Austin +17272
138 C. Howell III +6805
139 N. O'Hern +15252
140 R. Karlsson +15252
141 S. Hansen +17777
142 R. Green +17171
143 M.A. Jimenez +16767
144 B. Weekley +12727
145 S. Katayama +25212
146 N. Dougherty +17777
147 B. Snedeker +12767
148 M. Calcavecchia +17777
149 D. Toms +6389
150 J. Leonard +7215
151 A. Hansen +20202
152 R. Allenby +7215
153 J. Senden +25252
154 J .Kelly +20202
155 P. Hanson +22727
156 C. Villegas +12727
157 B. Dredge +22727
158 R. Pampling +20212
159 C. Montgomerie +17272
160 B. Jones +30321
161 J. Byrd +22727
162 D. Chopra +17272
163 P. Perez +22727
164 J.B. Holmes +12222


WGC Accenture Match Play: Sam Snead Bracket
Wed 2/20 S. Stricker vs D. Chopra
08:00 AM 761 S. Stricker -162
762 D. Chopra +152
Wed 2/20 R. Sterne vs H. Mahan
08:00 AM 763 R. Sterne +110
764 H. Mahan -120
Wed 2/20 A. Cabrera vs A. Hansen
08:00 AM 765 A. Cabrera -155
766 A. Hansen +145
Wed 2/20 L. Donald vs N. Dougherty
08:00 AM 767 L. Donald -162
768 N. Dougherty +152
Wed 2/20 J. Furyk vs C. Montgomerie
08:00 AM 769 J. Furyk -145
770 C. Montgomerie +135
Wed 2/20 S. Ames vs C. Howell III
08:00 AM 771 S. Ames +101
772 C. Howell III -111
Wed 2/20 P. Harrington vs J. Kelly
08:00 AM 773 P. Harrington -211
774 J. Kelly +191
Wed 2/20 S. Cink vs M. A. Jimenez
08:00 AM 775 S. Cink -137
776 M. A. Jimenez +127

Those are Pins current lines, I'll be interested to see how they move especially on Wednesday AM.

good lines to pay attention to as usual.

FWIW.... Goosen shot 156 and missed the cut at Riviera. From what I read apparently he had Lasix done and he isn't seeing too well yet.




February 10, 2008 - Goosen is shown in the field for the Northern Trust Open according to PGA Tour.com
Notes: Goosen has had trouble recovering from follow-up eye surgery. If you're interested, be alert to a possible withdrawal. Goosen uses two alarm clocks at this event having overslept a few years back thus suffering a disqualification.

I know a lasix doctor that wont personally get it done because of no guarantees.