What pct of players would still fail if they won 53.5% over 10,000 plays in 1 year?

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Rx Wizard
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Lets say someone was able to show you a systamatic way that would generate around 10,000 plays a year but you had to work at it 7 nites a week and with it you found around 30 plays a day on average. Winning at this rate (which some people here dont think is great but it is) and betting 1% of a 50k bank and not adjusting, would make you close to 120k a year in profits, so it would be worth your time and effort.

Now the question is what pct of people who knew the above results would be there would still not be able to do it? The reason I ask this is I just got done reading a couple of good stock trading books about the so called "Turtle Traders" of the mid 80's and how a billionaire stock trader taught them a proven simple system and then worked on the mental part of this expierment, as he felt that was more important for the traders to understand the ups and downs of trading the market daily.

This got me to thinking. I had my best month ever betting in January and now in Febuary I am down the most I have ever been down in 1 month. My profit in January is 3x more than my loss has been in Febuary but I am having a harder time than I thought I would with the mental aspect of this. Not that I am thinking of quitting, chasing, not being disciplined or anything like that but the losses are weighing on me a little and I have been 2nd guessing alot of the proven methods that carried me to a spectacular January. The one thing big thing that is different this time of the year and what is causing higher flucuations in my daily play is the higher volume of plays I am expierincing this time of the year.

I have been also doing alot of scoreboard watching (which I never do) and basically sweating out some of the games the last few nites even though both months combined I am up a good amount and pretty much right on course ROI wise with my previous records. My point is no matter how hard we try and fool ourselves the mental part of betting is (IMO) the biggest downfall for most.

After finishing the 2 books I went to Amazon and looked up trading psychology type books and to my amazement there everywhere. I am not sure if they work but alot of the successfull gambler type stories I have read (be it betting sports or stocks) talk alot about how important this mental part of the game is.

So hypothetically speaking. If you were to perform a similair type expierment as the Turtles traders did and you were to take a proven full time gambler who has made millions and has won for years doing whatever he did and have him teach the others his way of playing I think the majority of people would still fail and the main reason would be the mental part is way more difficult than people realize. It shouldnt be but it is. Now I do believe the most important thing is finding winners and winning over the breakeven point of 52.7% (or whatever you need to win at with the juice you are facing), without that than eventually you are finished as a bettor but if you were able to conquer that part (which is easier said than done) the next big hurlde (the mental hurdle) is bigger than I think most give credit too.

Would like to hear others thoughts on this.
 
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My thoughts are to take some much needed time off and take a vacation...relax, read, and go somewhere and come back more mentally prepared..just my 2 cents worth..
 

WVU

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Iceman, how automated are you? Do you have a program that finds the plays and maybe even bets them for you?
 

Rx Wizard
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My thoughts are to take some much needed time off and take a vacation...relax, read, and go somewhere and come back more mentally prepared..just my 2 cents worth..


No I am not complaining at all. My passion for this is as high as it has ever been. In fact I had a huge nite last nite, winning back 30% of my monthly losses, which honestly donest mean anything in the big scope of things.

I do agree with getting away from time to time and it is something I plan on doing more this year but for the sake of this topic discussion my point is even if someone knew they should win (not me but anyone who has a slight edge) I think most would still find away too not win and end up quitting and losing in this overall winning venture because of the mental aspect of it would be too much too overcome. I think this ends up being the downfall for most over time who take this really serious.

I honestly think I handle this mental thing better than 99% of most but I still think I have alot to work on with it and that is half the battle admitting it.
 
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Rx Wizard
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Iceman, how automated are you? Do you have a program that finds the plays and maybe even bets them for you?

nothing automated at all but I do use indicators that over time have won at a 53.5% rate for the 18 months I have did this and longer from the few people I have learned from.

I am the one pulling the trigger on these and that is done thru alot of hard work, time and some expierence (which I may not give enough credit to myself alot of times) filtering out alot of plays that havent worked in the past that I have noticed.

The similaritites in theses books I have read between betting sports and people that trade markets are so close it is scary. I cant get over how close they are. I think alot of serious players should read books on this type stuff and we could learn quite a bit as both are hard games but can be beat if you go about it the right away.
 

WVU

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If you could completely automate and make say 75% of what you are currently making with little to no work would you pursue it?
 

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Over 99% would still fail. Most "sports bettors", including a large portion of posters here, are actually sports-watching gamblers, instead of guys like you who are market readers and high-risk (relatively speaking) investors who understand the basic math behind sports betting.
 
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Iceman, never said you were complaining..You really need a break from the everyday stress of making multiple plays...I just believe that you have to enjoy life more and stay away from some of the pitfalls that come from gambling...
 

Rx Wizard
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Iceman, never said you were complaining..You really need a break from the everyday stress of making multiple plays...I just believe that you have to enjoy life more and stay away from some of the pitfalls that come from gambling...


I know what you are saying. Everyday stress to me is not gambling that is my passion, it is what I love more than anything. I know that may seem to odd to hear some people say that but I am different in this more than most. I dont like to consider it gambling, it is investing and it is a hobby for me. It is a puzzle that I love to try and solve. It is something I look forward to everyday much like someone who plays the market does. I love the daily battles. I love the competition.

Stress to me is my current job (which I never get time off from) and my impossibile to work for regional manager who believes in firing anyone and everyone that is not top notch material and making me the one to do it. It is the time constraints and unrealistic goals he puts on me. I once heard a baseball player interviewed and they asked him if felt the pressures of the slump he was in and he said something to the effect of pressure is when you cant make you next car payment or you are going to lose your home or how you can afford to feed all the mouths in the home, that is pressure not hitting a baseball. I sort of feel the say way with work compared to betting for me. The challenge and the game of betting is a relief to the evryday pressures of life.

I do know where you are coming from and i do appreciaite the advice but 99 out of 100 of my problems and worries stem from other things other than betting. I am sure for most it is the other way around.:103631605
 

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The pain of losing is probably why chase systems are attractive to so many gamblers. They give the impression of steady profits, which is what we want psychogically.
 

Rx Wizard
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If you could completely automate and make say 75% of what you are currently making with little to no work would you pursue it?


Probably not. Like I said earlier I think what I do I dont give enough credit to the feel I have for what I am doing and that it is probably the main difference to getting that small edge I get.

From reading those books I think it is very comparable to technical anaylsis. In fact I am heavily thinking about putting all my future efforts into learning how to trade stocks but I would need a mentor (so if anyone is out there please contact me, LOL but I am serious about that) as I have a thousand questions but I dont think it is far from what I already do and I 100% believe in my heart it is my calling in life.

Like I said in the above post to VD. I love this stuff for alot of reasons. I honestly get a borderline high messing with numbers and looking at statistics, doing recordkeeping. The personal satisfaction that comes from knowing I am the main reason I won is also very important to me. I dont have alot of intersts in different things but when I do, I pursue it with more passion than anyone I know. That could be a good thing or a bad thing depending on how you look at.
 
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Iceman, never said you were complaining..You really need a break from the everyday stress of making multiple plays...I just believe that you have to enjoy life more and stay away from some of the pitfalls that come from gambling...

I would have to agree with VD here.....I'm on Both Sides of the Fence and I Need 4 Vactions a Year !
You need to Break things up, or you will Burn out Quick.

There will be times that you think to yourself, " Well I can do it " Just keep trucking, etc....But you really need to take that break...give it a Weekend without Gambling....take the wife & Kids away, relax...Rest your Body & Mind !

There is a Song by Billy Joel, the name is " Vienna " Check it Out if you can. You will understand More of What I am saying...

This is Just My 2cents
 

Rx Wizard
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Over 99% would still fail. Most "sports bettors", including a large portion of posters here, are actually sports-watching gamblers, instead of guys like you who are market readers and high-risk (relatively speaking) investors who understand the basic math behind sports betting.


though 99% may seem high I think you are closer to right than most. Great answer by the way.
 

Rx Wizard
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Matt,

Here is a great thing I read in one the books: Trading (betting sports) is filled with uncertainites. You dont know whether a trader is going to make money. The best you can do is be confident that the rewards will outweigh the risks over the long run.

Just like when someone asks me who I like or to post my plays. I have NO IDEA WHO IS GOING TO WIN A CERTAIN GAME, NONE. I cannot predict the future. But if I focus on methods in which the probabilities are in my favor for a successfull outcome in the LONG RUN, than I should be all right.
 
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In my experiences, most over-achievers are gamblers and enjoy the battles of picking winners...it's all about competition and who can pick winners...seems like you have a full plate on your table with your job, gambling, and mod responsibilities...planning routines everyday has never been one of my strongpoints and it seems that there are not enough hours in the day for you..good luck finding that even balance that most of us search for...for me my priorities are different since I am a bit older than you...gambling has always been a big part of my life, but now I am just trying to enjoy myself and rid myself of any pressures that come with gambling...and for me that is traveling and keeping a great relationship with loved ones, especially my daughter...
 

Rx Wizard
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I would have to agree with VD here.....I'm on Both Sides of the Fence and I Need 4 Vactions a Year !
You need to Break things up, or you will Burn out Quick.

There will be times that you think to yourself, " Well I can do it " Just keep trucking, etc....But you really need to take that break...give it a Weekend without Gambling....take the wife & Kids away, relax...Rest your Body & Mind !

There is a Song by Billy Joel, the name is " Vienna " Check it Out if you can. You will understand More of What I am saying...

This is Just My 2cents


dont get me wrong I would love a vacation but not with my job, NEVER EVER allowed to happen. 6 years and still not had one. When I do get some mandatory time off (holidays) I come back too twice the work and half the time to do it in. Not complaining it is what I signed up for and i knew this going in. To tell you the turth after a couple days I would probably be bouncing off the wall. Also no kids right now but if and when that happens, vactioning will be important.
 

Rx Wizard
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In my experiences, most over-achievers are gamblers and enjoy the battles of picking winners...it's all about competition and who can pick winners...seems like you have a full plate on your table with your job, gambling, and mod responsibilities...planning routines everyday has never been one of my strongpoints and it seems that there are not enough hours in the day for you..good luck finding that even balance that most of us search for...for me my priorities are different since I am a bit older than you...gambling has always been a big part of my life, but now I am just trying to enjoy myself and rid myself of any pressures that come with gambling...and for me that is traveling and keeping a great relationship with loved ones, especially my daughter...


I hear ya. Like I said to Bet in the above post. Hopefully one day. Things change. Things I liked a few years ago I cant stand now and vice versa. I am sure there will come a time and like I said vactioning becomes important if kids were added into the mix (can't even believe I am saying kids. see I am getting older, LOL)
 
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dont get me wrong I would love a vacation but not with my job, NEVER EVER allowed to happen. 6 years and still not had one. When I do get some mandatory time off (holidays) I come back too twice the work and half the time to do it in. Not complaining it is what I signed up for and i knew this going in. To tell you the turth after a couple days I would probably be bouncing off the wall. Also no kids right now but if and when that happens, vactioning will be important.

If you can say..What kind of Job are we talking about ??

When I worked in the " Real World " ( 9-5 Job ) I had the same as what you said. I would take some time off and come back to a Mess !
I'm going to guess here that you are in your 30's maybe early 40's

But Really !! You should Check out that Song that I posted above.
It Changed my way of thinking in Life !
 

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