You would be at 61.8% if you bet Boston, Detroit, Orlando every game this year in NBA

Iceman · Feb 17, 2008

I am not sure but all 3 may have been the favorites to win there division going into the year. Without line shopping you would be 94-58, that is +30 units on the year and would be a super season.

Does anyone know if all 3 were favored to win their division? Cleveland may have been over Detroit and Miami over Orlando but if I had to bet I would guess all 3 were favorites going into the year.

Seems a little odd as generally teams that are favored alot and are expected to be good before the season starts dont generally play that much better against the spread like these 3 have all year.

Iceman · Feb 17, 2008

There would have to be an obvious adjustment for when they played against each other, so in all honesty since each one of those games is 1-1 you would most likely be at 65%.

Like I said earlier this is against consensus closing lines so I would say throw in line shopping it would have close 67% or 2/3 of the time over 140 bets or so. That is pretty damn good but does us no good now does it.

Wynn · Feb 17, 2008

Interesting information - maybe the weaker teams have already packed it in for the year.

Iceman · Feb 17, 2008

Wynn said:
Interesting information - maybe the weaker teams have already packed it in for the year.

I could be totally wrong but it seems like the books are 10x more worried about the sharps nowadays, that the days of leaning dogs may be done in football and hoops and the lines arent as slanted as much as they use to be for the underdogs. Just a thought.

joeyfitzclick · Feb 17, 2008

SU or ATS ?

Iceman · Feb 17, 2008

joeyfitzclick said:
SU or ATS ?

ATS!!!

Sorry didnt post that anywhere before.

Wynn · Feb 17, 2008

Iceman said:
I could be totally wrong but it seems like the books are 10x more worried about the sharps nowadays, that the days of leaning dogs may be done in football and hoops and the lines arent as slanted as much as they use to be for the underdogs. Just a thought.

It doesn't seem like the lines have shrunk. However, there does appear to have been less parity in pro football and hoops these past two years.

Iceman · Feb 17, 2008

Wynn said:
It doesn't seem like the lines have shrunk. However, there does appear to have less parity in pro football and hoops these past two years.

No, but it does seem like in the case of the Celtics when they were red hot at the beginning of the season, I would be fully prepared to fade them, thinking I would get a ridicoulusly high line and almost every nite it just didnt seem like it was there or if anything maybe even a tad low.

SmallDaddy · Feb 18, 2008

While I dont have the numbers to back this up but IMO at about half way thru the season the top teams will generally have good stats ATS in each and every season, so this is backfitting at its finest but then regression to the mean will rear its ugly head

I guess the trick is to find out which teams will be good beforehand

GreenDoberman · Feb 18, 2008

If my aunt had balls, she would be my uncle.

Thanks for the tip.

punter · Feb 18, 2008

Now he tells us.

easy_money · Feb 18, 2008

maybe those teams would be great fades the second half of the season?

WorldNumberOne · Feb 18, 2008

i can see why they promoted you to a mod.

what would your record be if you bet on those 3 teams to cover every time they covered and against them every time they didnt ?

i could sit here all day and try to figure it out , but why not ask someone as brilliant as a mod...

WVU · Feb 18, 2008

World Number One said:
i can see why they promoted you to a mod.

what would your record be if you bet on those 3 teams to cover every time they covered and against them every time they didnt ?

i could sit here all day and try to figure it out , but why not ask someone as brilliant as a mod...

Last I heard, identifying trends can be an important aspect of handicapping. Why you hating?

WorldNumberOne · Feb 18, 2008

blah blah blah... give me something to work with..

anybody can pull the 3 best teams in a group and say what might have been...

did you know if you had bet the patriots on the money line all year , you would have gone 18-1 ?

i hope everyone jumps on board and those 3 teams go 61.8 % ats the rest of year...

Iceman · Feb 18, 2008

World Number One said:
blah blah blah... give me something to work with..

anybody can pull the 3 best teams in a group and say what might have been...

did you know if you had bet the patriots on the money line all year , you would have gone 18-1 ?

i hope everyone jumps on board and those 3 teams go 61.8 % ats the rest of year...

relax Tiger. Never one time did I say that you should be doing this to win money now in fact i took a slam on myself on pst #2 and said little good that does me know.

If you took the time I read what I sad in the first post my point was usually teams that are expected to do really well dont overacheive that much ATS.

I assumed all 3 were the favorites to win their division and thought it was odd that alll 3 going into the year had pretty high expectations and have lived up to and exceed them at that high fo a rate. that was the point usually teams with great ATS records are surprise teams these are not.

believe me I am not trying to make any money off this commenent or claiming I did nor was I saying for anyone too but I dont think it fair to call me out like I am trying to win at betting and this is the best I have to offer.
I can promise you I try and stir up as much talk about winning at betting more than most of the posters here and I know you know that so not sure why all the negativity it was just something I noticed when I was looking at the standings last nite, that was it.

WorldNumberOne · Feb 18, 2008

i'm just bustin your stones...

i've posted dozens of trends in the nba forum...

post away .....

Iceman · Feb 18, 2008

World Number One said:
i'm just bustin your stones...

i've posted dozens of trends in the nba forum...

post away .....

I thought so and I noticed that you had trends up just a few weeks ago but didnt have the energy to get into a big pissing match.

Been a long hard winter here in Michigan. I need a break:toast:

Not sure why I am catching any flack from anyone about this, I just thought it was sort of an intersting stat that was it.

WorldNumberOne · Feb 18, 2008

i went thru 22 long winters up there. then i wised up and moved to florida.

i was born in royal oak.

Iceman · Feb 18, 2008

World Number One said:
i went thru 22 long winters up there. then i wised up and moved to florida.

i was born in royal oak.

actually thats a very nice town (Royal Oak). This may be my last winter. Thinking about leaving also, though the weather isnt the main reason.

You would be at 61.8% if you bet Boston, Detroit, Orlando every game this year in NBA

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