OK at the cost of being ridiculed by Idiots, here's My view of line movement.
A lot of thinking and posting is based on what used to happen Years ago and although the same sequence happens, there is subtle differences. Most if not all Books subscribe to a Linemaker which comes up with a basic line taking into account all situations at that time, this in Britain is called a tissue price and then individual Books massage this price to their own needs. These needs will incorporate in house cappers and tailored to their Clientel to come up with their own price. As I've said before, Bookmakers are on a tier basis which dictates how you quote your prices, what people call slow Books might sound derogatory but they are quiet happy laying the prices they offer. On the contrary, there is Books who are at the cutting edge of taking Bets like Pinny because they havent the volume like big books.
Where books used to depend on Sharps adjusting their prices, nowadays overnight small limits on line sharpen the line through a host of small wagering but smart bettors. So My argument would be at about 9am EST that line is as sharp as it can get without taking into account intangibles. These intangibiles are,
1) Betting volume
2) Injuries
3) Weather.
Lets look at these individually and how they affect the line.
1) Nobody knows where the volume will come from and at this point Sharp or Square money is immaterial, in fact Sharp money for a Book is no problem as its the most looked after part of the business. I would like to remind people that not all Games are the same, as a Book you may take fortunes on One game and nothing on another, which leads to vastly over-round games and depending on Limits, may make the Book a Hedger which to another Book is a Bettor. I will leave this part till the last 15 Minutes before a game as thats when Books will offlay not only their liabilties but for some Books their view.
2) It pays Books to have their fingers on the Pulse concerning injuries but at the end of the Day they have to take Bets. Until they have a handle on any major injuries they will be off-line but will know that they are not as big a deal as the Punters think and getting the right line out is more to suck people in than getting caught.
3) The one thing that kills a Book is that regression to the mean when chalking up a spread, and when Bad Weather hits they know they are vunerable. The problem for the Books is laying to the Public avalanche while not giving an easy touch to the Sharps, not an easy thing but luckily for the Books doesnt happen that often.
So, My view is that about 12 pm EST outside unknown things, the line is as sharp as it can get. The only other time that is different is in the Half-Hour before the Games start, here there is no reason for reading the line as
1) People are putting there Bets on and there's no knowing how sharp they are.
2) You also have Books hedging one Horse books, Books with over limits.
3) Books that have an opinion.
Hope that gives some insight to some, I realise Wil and the Mods, especially Iceman already know this shit, if they didnt they would be constantly asking questions about the Topic. :drink:
A lot of thinking and posting is based on what used to happen Years ago and although the same sequence happens, there is subtle differences. Most if not all Books subscribe to a Linemaker which comes up with a basic line taking into account all situations at that time, this in Britain is called a tissue price and then individual Books massage this price to their own needs. These needs will incorporate in house cappers and tailored to their Clientel to come up with their own price. As I've said before, Bookmakers are on a tier basis which dictates how you quote your prices, what people call slow Books might sound derogatory but they are quiet happy laying the prices they offer. On the contrary, there is Books who are at the cutting edge of taking Bets like Pinny because they havent the volume like big books.
Where books used to depend on Sharps adjusting their prices, nowadays overnight small limits on line sharpen the line through a host of small wagering but smart bettors. So My argument would be at about 9am EST that line is as sharp as it can get without taking into account intangibles. These intangibiles are,
1) Betting volume
2) Injuries
3) Weather.
Lets look at these individually and how they affect the line.
1) Nobody knows where the volume will come from and at this point Sharp or Square money is immaterial, in fact Sharp money for a Book is no problem as its the most looked after part of the business. I would like to remind people that not all Games are the same, as a Book you may take fortunes on One game and nothing on another, which leads to vastly over-round games and depending on Limits, may make the Book a Hedger which to another Book is a Bettor. I will leave this part till the last 15 Minutes before a game as thats when Books will offlay not only their liabilties but for some Books their view.
2) It pays Books to have their fingers on the Pulse concerning injuries but at the end of the Day they have to take Bets. Until they have a handle on any major injuries they will be off-line but will know that they are not as big a deal as the Punters think and getting the right line out is more to suck people in than getting caught.
3) The one thing that kills a Book is that regression to the mean when chalking up a spread, and when Bad Weather hits they know they are vunerable. The problem for the Books is laying to the Public avalanche while not giving an easy touch to the Sharps, not an easy thing but luckily for the Books doesnt happen that often.
So, My view is that about 12 pm EST outside unknown things, the line is as sharp as it can get. The only other time that is different is in the Half-Hour before the Games start, here there is no reason for reading the line as
1) People are putting there Bets on and there's no knowing how sharp they are.
2) You also have Books hedging one Horse books, Books with over limits.
3) Books that have an opinion.
Hope that gives some insight to some, I realise Wil and the Mods, especially Iceman already know this shit, if they didnt they would be constantly asking questions about the Topic. :drink:
Soccer books know British soccer better than any other therefore the early lines for these matches are sharper than early lines for other leagues. Line movement in other leagues can occur due to linesmakers not being familiar with the league which does not necessarily mean sharp movement. When lines move in British soccer it can be because the betting public sees a good price and acts accordingly.
That brings us to why lines move in soccer in general. Generally the big favorites like Chelsea and Liverpool are going to get line movement toward them based upon who they are. This is to be ignored. Where valuable line movement occurs is when the underdog has money on it driving the line down.
Now in soccer, especially British soccer, when the Draw Line moves down at the same time that the Dog Line moves down it means the books want more money on the favorite and less money on the draw or dog. The reason for this is because when bettors find value on the dog they also tend to bet the draw. When both of these indicators fall it means that money is being placed on the dog by sharp bettors.
That brings us to why lines move in soccer in general. Generally the big favorites like Chelsea and Liverpool are going to get line movement toward them based upon who they are. This is to be ignored. Where valuable line movement occurs is when the underdog has money on it driving the line down.
Now in soccer, especially British soccer, when the Draw Line moves down at the same time that the Dog Line moves down it means the books want more money on the favorite and less money on the draw or dog. The reason for this is because when bettors find value on the dog they also tend to bet the draw. When both of these indicators fall it means that money is being placed on the dog by sharp bettors.
In the 2.5 years I have played at SIA I would have to say they have become way way faster but still arent what I would call as fast as most but you are honestly talking seconds. I think the way to beat them is to look at the few games a nite where they decide they need some action and tilt the line a little giving you an off number. So you probably said the #1 slow oving book I am just saying it isnt nearly like it used to be.
I agree with the Greek. They move strictly on action (wished more books did) so if you keep your eyes open you can find some value laying around.
I was just wondering if you believed that or you were joking? If so that is fine I just have never heard anyone say that and thought it was interesting, would love to hear your thoughts. Unbelieveably that is one book I have alwasy wanted to sign up for but havent yet, probably will this baseball season.
Thanks for any info.
