My preview with over & unders for every MLB team.

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I have pretty much spent most of my spare time the last month outside of family working on the baseball season.

Thats why you have not seen much of me the last month until the last few days.
I have many thoughts on this season and decided to post my preview right here.

Please feel free to post your feeling also in this thread if you agree or disagree.

I am going to post an over/under for everyteam just to give people a feel for how I think teams stand based on perception.

I only have 3 bets posted for over/unders, so I am not suggesting a bet on any of them except for the 3 that I made. I am going to do about 3 teams a day until I have done every team. I will start with the NL West.


Arizona D-Backs Total wins 86.5 PREDICTION: UNDER


I have nothing against Zona, this has more to do with the division than the D-Backs.

I love the trade to get Dan Haren, and I think Brandon Webb is one of the 3 best starters in all of baseball. They have the best 1 to 2 out west in my mind. Better than Peavey and Young. With that being said it drops of bigtime after that. Randy Johnson is toast, and Davis and Owings show flashes of being decent but not much more than that.

There bullpen is not as good on paper either.

They did not do a damm thing to improve there offense which was really bad. 14th in the league out of 16 teams in a hitters park.

Looking at the whole picture, they only improved on 1 area, and thats the #2 starter. Everywhere else they are either the same or worse.




But we are talking about a team that scored less runs then they gave up. One of the only teams in the history of baseball to make the playoffs with a negitive differential.


Colorado Rockies Total wins 88.5 PREDICTION over

Here is a team that dominates every team in the WEST division except for starting pitching.

They have a better bullpen than every team in the NL, maybe even in all the National league. There starters not quite up to the level of San Diego or L.A but they have a nice young group thats getting better and better. Last season was not a fluke.

Francis
Jimenez
Morales
Cook

Is not bad when you have the lineup and bullpen to support them. With a bullpen of Corpas, Fuentes, Capellan etc.... they can hold onto leads.

Everyone knows about there great up and coming position players.


SanDiego Padres 84.5 wins PREDICTION: OVER

The Rockies may have the best bullpen in the division and the D-Backs may have the best 1,2 punch in the division, I think the Pads have the best overall pitching period from top to bottom.

They have the best top 3 starters in the league with Peavy,Young and Maddux.

Just think about the PADS playing in a 3 game series with Peavy, Young and Maddux, they are going to win at least 2 out of 3 a hell of a lot. Randy Wolf is also far from a plug, and who knows what Mark Prior may do later on in the season.

The bullpen is steady with Hoff,Meriadeth, bell, hampson and others.

Its the offense that has a long way to go.

I dont know about you, but I have no clue why they are leading off with Brain Giles. What a waste, about the only other leadoff hitter worse than that would be his brother Marcus who the finally let go of a few weeks ago.

I dont like the Jim Edmonds deal. Why to the Pads keep signing left handed hitters? That place is a graveyard for left handers. I dont expect much from the lineup, but they will win a lot of 3-2 games this season.

They will be a great home team, and sometimes a good fade on the road.






 

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Allow me to say NO FUCKING WAY to the Colorado wager. Their starters suck and are not even in the same league with 'Zona. The Rockies will allow 850 runs. This is silliness Chop. Please reconsider. Don't start your season out in this way! The D'Backs will win several more games than Colorado. They did improve their offense in the off season, by sheer growth and development. They are much more talented than Colorado. Colorado is very likely to have a losing record, and will not come close to winning 89 games. I like your picks usually, but this I can't follow you if your reasoning is going to be done in this manner this year.
 

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Allow me to say NO FUCKING WAY to the Colorado wager. Their starters suck and are not even in the same league with 'Zona. The Rockies will allow 850 runs. This is silliness Chop. Please reconsider. Don't start your season out in this way! The D'Backs will win several more games than Colorado. They did improve their offense in the off season, by sheer growth and development. They are much more talented than Colorado. Colorado is very likely to have a losing record, and will not come close to winning 89 games. I like your picks usually, but this I can't follow you if your reasoning is going to be done in this manner this year.

I only have wagers on 3 season wins totals this season. I am giving an over/under on every team in this thread simply for a reference.

My big bet is over for TAMPA BAY.
I also have a under on the WHITESOX and under on Seattle.
 

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I only have wagers on 3 season wins totals this season. I am giving an over/under on every team in this thread simply for a reference.

My big bet is over for TAMPA BAY.
I also have a under on the WHITESOX and under on Seattle.

Okay,
I hope you're not pandering to me. Those are all very good bets, though the ChiSox Line looks particularly sharp now.
 

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Okay,
I hope you're not pandering to me. Those are all very good bets, though the ChiSox Line looks particularly sharp now.

No im not pandering you.
Read the beginning of the 1st post. I said I only made 3 wagers on over/unders. I am just giving my leans for each team in this thread for a reference on my general feelings for each team.

It would be crazy for me to make a wager on every teams win loss total.
 

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Arizona is going to struggle to get to .500 ball this year IMO.
 

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Arizona is going to struggle to get to .500 ball this year IMO.
Based on what? Improvement in their starting pitching? Their bullpen, which will probably be better.
I don't understand why some people keep saying this. I know all about their run differential last year, but all of their young guys figure to improve. I honestly don't see how this team wins less than 90 games.
 

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Based on what? Improvement in their starting pitching? Their bullpen, which will probably be better.
I don't understand why some people keep saying this. I know all about their run differential last year, but all of their young guys figure to improve. I honestly don't see how this team wins less than 90 games.

They lost a guy who was arguably the best closer in the game. Their offense was lucky to put up the numbers they put up last season and I see a decline or at best, the same results. Haren is not nearly as good as last season indicates and I say this as a longtime A's fan. He had one good year and all of a sudden people think he's a #1 type pitcher. He's a #2 at best and more than likely a #3. Davis and Owings don't impress me and Johnson is 84 years old. The bullpen looks somewhat iffy with Valverde gone. They play in a division where every team is good plus their runs scored/allowed last year indicate they won't have the same luck again. This is the 4th best team in the division. Haren is overrated as can be right now.
 

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It's always possible I could be wrong. There is a first for everything. :)
 

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Haren may be slightly overrated, but i followed him through the Cardinals organization and he's been a stud forever. He's definitely a number two starter. Davis is a decent 3/4 and Owings/the farm can easily fill in as needed for a 4/5 starter. Any production out of Johnson is just a bonus for them. As for your point about Valverde, did you watch any games he pitched last year? He's always been on the razor's edge as a pitcher. The year before some breaks went against him and he spent a few months in the minors. There's no way he ever comes close to what he did last year. Plus, in the half-season or so that Lyon closed for them before he got hurt he was dominating. Also, Scherzer is looking like a very solid up and comer for that job.
The Giants suck, the Padres will do what they do every other year and have no offense, the Rockies are due for a regression and the Dodgers are solid. Upton, Young and Drew figure to show a lot of improvement, and with that the offense will improve.
I don't think there's any doubt that their pitching is better than SD, Colorado and LA, and probably a little better than SF. Their Offense is definitely better than SD and SF, and i'd say close to the same as LA and Colorado.

BTW: if anybody isn't as good as last season indicates it's Chris Young (Padres).
 

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Valverde's 05 campaign was pretty similar to last season, was it not? I know he struggled in 06 but I'm pretty sure he was excellent in 05.

I think Drew takes a decent sized step up but I don't feel Young and Upton are close to ready right now. Reynolds won't come close to matching last year's numbers either. The only thing I like about their offense is that Chad Tracy should be healthy for most of this year.

I don't think their pitching is better than SD's. Peavy is better than Webb by a small amount, same goes for Young over Haren. The remaining guys are a tossup.

They have a better rotation than Colorado but the Rockies have a MUCH better offense and a better pen with Corpas and Fuentes. SF stinks but their pitching staff should still be about on par with Arizona thanks to not really having a weak link and being solid throughout.

We'll have to see how the year plays out.

PS, Chris Young is a very good pitcher. He was putting up very good numbers in Texas in that tiny stadium and it's no surprise to me to see those low numbers of his considering how much bigger PetCo is.
 

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Im a maddux lover as much as the next guy for christ sake i have about 500 cards of the guy but if he is really SD's #3 that bullpen is going to be working a ton, doesnt seem to give innings anymore, you said wolf is their #4 thats not any better, who is their 5 guy?
 

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that said if either young or peavy goes down for any time I dont see these guys winning a whole hell of a lot of games in that division, just my opinion.
 

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that said if either young or peavy goes down for any time I dont see these guys winning a whole hell of a lot of games in that division, just my opinion.

PetCo has a weird way of making average pitchers look great and because of that, the games are tight and winnable for the most part. Wolf should do well in SD. He was looking very nice in LAD for a while before he had issues and PetCo is the best fly ball park in the game and Wolf is an extreme fly ball pitcher. Pads also have Mark Prior if he can get healthy. Don't forget about that guy...
 

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Interesting all ov/un were made on NL west teams. I may be in the minority, but I believe the San Fransico Giants have the best starting rotation from top to bottom. I feel Cain will be down right dominant this year. I'm expecting a bounce back year for Zito. Never did i feel he was worth that huge contract, but I feel he will do much better now that he is accustomed to the NL. Lowery has always been consistent and feel he is very underrated. Lincecum is going to be a stud . He pitched very well IMO last year and should be even better this year. Their stadium is built to support a strong pitching staff, which will be needed cause their offense could be the worst in the whole league. I feel their starting pitching can do very well against the NL west since it is very light hitting, outside of Colorado. I'm taking a hard look at the Giants over and feel their starting pitching can match up with anyone in the division.
 

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Interesting all ov/un were made on NL west teams. I may be in the minority, but I believe the San Fransico Giants have the best starting rotation from top to bottom. I feel Cain will be down right dominant this year. I'm expecting a bounce back year for Zito. Never did i feel he was worth that huge contract, but I feel he will do much better now that he is accustomed to the NL. Lowery has always been consistent and feel he is very underrated. Lincecum is going to be a stud . He pitched very well IMO last year and should be even better this year. Their stadium is built to support a strong pitching staff, which will be needed cause their offense could be the worst in the whole league. I feel their starting pitching can do very well against the NL west since it is very light hitting, outside of Colorado. I'm taking a hard look at the Giants over and feel their starting pitching can match up with anyone in the division.

Im doing one division at a time. I happened to chose the NL WEST first.
Like I said, these are not bets. I have only put money on 3 season win totals this season.

I will finish up the west tommorow and move on to the next division.
 

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Agree about the SF over. Excellent young pitchers plus a outfield defense that will be ALOT better then last year. Their offense will keep them from contending.
Arizona will slip. More runs allowed then scored plus losing top closer equals you lose.
Dodgers solid. No big weaknesses. If Schmidt comes back look out.
Colorado still good. I think Marcus Giles has a bounce back year in Coors. Nice pitching that is shielded by park effect.
San Diego has a dominant 1-2, but Maddux's decline is shielded by Petco. A ERA of 4 in that park is lousy. Prior and Wolf are big iffs. Hoffman on last legs as is Edmonds.
I see it as LA and Rockies as the contenders and the rest as maybes and wannabes. We shall see.
 

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Arizona under 87 +100 at Pinnacle. The more I look at it the more I like it. Their lineup is even more putrid than their pitching is strong. An under .500 record seems as likely as over .500. And the book is giving us even money at 12 games over .500?

Of their entire starting lineup, what is the best season any one of them has had in their entire career? Connor Jackson from last year. The Dodgers had a below average offense last year and had three hitters better than that

I will disagree with one point and say the bullpen does look strong. Few teams in the league have much starting pitching depth so it is hard to hold that against them, until you remember they are being asked to win 87. . .
 

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I only have wagers on 3 season wins totals this season. I am giving an over/under on every team in this thread simply for a reference.

My big bet is over for TAMPA BAY.
I also have a under on the WHITESOX and under on Seattle.

Disagree on all three totals. I'll wait until my Baseball Prospectus comes today for more ammunition.
 

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