thoughts on Bos v. Oak returning from Japan

Boston and Oakland start off the MLB season on March 25 in Japan.

The last two times teams started off the season making this long trip to Japan, they came back and played .500 baseball or WORSE.

In 2004, the New York Yankees started the season in Japan against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.
After returning home from Japan 1-1, the Yanks went 7-10 (9 road, 8 home). The Yanks then won 8 in a row.
The yankees went on to finish the season 101-61 and lost to the Red Sox in the infamous collapse of the ALCS.

After returning home from Japan 1-1, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays went 9-27. (20 away v. 16 home) They then went 30-10.
The Rays went on to finish the season 70-91.


In 2000, the New York Mets started the season in Japan against the Chicago Cubs.
After returning home from Japan at 1-1, the Mets went 4-6 (5 road games and 5 home games). The Mets then won 9 games in a row.
Remember 2000 was the year the Mets finished 94-68 and went to the World Series and lost to the Yankees.

After returning home from Japan at 1-1, the Cubs went 14-26. they then went 15-13.
The Cubs finished 65-97


Assuming the Mets and Yankees were favored in most of their games, there was a lot of money to be made betting against them immediately after returning to the US. There was also a lot of money to be made betting with them when they get hot.

After returning from Japan, the Red Sox play 9 road games and 6 home games. Oakland comes back and plays 14 road games nad 13 home games.
I think there is a good opportunity to win money betting against the Red Sox when the return home from Japan.

Thoughts...

Buster Olney article on the red Sox early schedule

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=olney_buster

rosters

I read somewhere that rosters are expanded for teh Red Sox and As for this game. This may affect this strategy.

I also recently found out that the Dodgers and Padres will play spring training games in China on March 15 and 16.
since these teams will have to endure the long travel, there could be a few more teams to track with the strategy I mentioned above.

update

Red Sox return home 1-1 and are currently 3-4. That means they are 2-3 since returning back to the states with both wins coming against Oakland. They were just swept by Toronto and were favored in all the games against Toronto. Good money to be made here. Keep an eye.