DOW headed under 12,000 today

Fishhead · Mar 7, 2008

Eighteen months ago when mentioning I thought this would happen, a few here found this harder to phathom than my most recent comment of Favre coming back in the next 2-36 months.

Actually, felt more strongly that this would happen then I do of Favre coming back at some point in time...... for any team.

As I often do in these type of threads, thanks again to Dawoofdaddy and all his insight and education in this forum and the Financial Forum here at TheRX.............if you posters are not reading the financial forum on a semi-regular basis, your missing some tremendous money insights.

Find it ironic that more posters here are tuned into viewing the Rubber Room rather than the financial forum..............:think2:..............which idicates more here are interested in drama than making money and educating themselves.

teazeman · Mar 7, 2008

took longer than i thought.........are we officially in a "slow down" yet?

Fishhead · Mar 7, 2008

teazeman said:
took longer than i thought.........are we officially in a "slow down" yet?

ETRADE lowered their savings rate today to 3.45%.......which after taxes and inflation is a losing proposition.

teazeman · Mar 7, 2008

the good news is crude oil may NOT make it to 110.00 per barrell until NEXT week.....

WVU · Mar 7, 2008

While I know Dawoof posts some good stuff, his doom and gloom on the real estate market depresses me.

Fishhead · Mar 7, 2008

WVU said:
While I know Dawoof posts some good stuff, his doom and gloom on the real estate market depresses me.

WVU--I spent a lot of time studying the FL/Tampa housing market the past couple of days and came to the following conclusion/predictions.

My belief is were headed for some more depreciation........

Over the next 9-15 months my forecast(fwiw) is for a decline of 13-17% in value.

The semi-sombering fact is that I believe a large portion of this decline is still contributed by " a correction of the market factor" almost as much as the credit mess..........but the two together makes for a bearish outlook in these coming months in my opinion.

Dante · Mar 7, 2008

teazeman said:
the good news is crude oil may NOT make it to 110.00 per barrell until NEXT week.....

good point teasy..

I am predicting 125$ a barrel by May 1 .... :dancefool

ucking:

Dante · Mar 7, 2008

Fishhead said:
WVU--I spent a lot of time studying the FL/Tampa housing market the past couple of days and came to the following conclusion/predictions.

My belief is were headed for some more depreciation........

Over the next 9-15 months my forecast(fwiw) is for a decline of 13-17% in value.

The semi-sombering fact is that I believe a large portion of this decline is still contributed by " a correction of the market factor" almost as much as the credit mess..........but the two together makes for a bearish outlook in these coming months in my opinion.

wow a flashback to the Old Fishhead rants.... man How I miss the old days!d1g1t

Fishhead · Mar 7, 2008

Dante said:
good point teasy..

I am predicting 125$ a barrel by May 1 ....

ucking:ucking:

Again, the faster we turn our attention to ethanol blended gasoline, the better.

WVU · Mar 7, 2008

Fishhead said:
WVU--I spent a lot of time studying the FL/Tampa housing market the past couple of days and came to the following conclusion/predictions.

My belief is were headed for some more depreciation........

Over the next 9-15 months my forecast(fwiw) is for a decline of 13-17% in value.

The semi-sombering fact is that I believe a large portion of this decline is still contributed by " a correction of the market factor" almost as much as the credit mess..........but the two together makes for a bearish outlook in these coming months in my opinion.

eventually the correction will be complete. 13-17% will be catastropic. That is way more than a correction. Homes and other property still have value and I just don't see the prices falling below value. Everything is rising in cost. I agree that houses were over valued but if they dropped another 10% they will be under valued and the market will begin to stabilize. If the housing market keeps correcting like predicted then they will be less expensive than cars.

teazeman · Mar 7, 2008

we work with some home builders here and their biggest problem seems to be inventory, is this a nationwide problem? is the same true in fla?

Fishhead · Mar 7, 2008

WVU said:
eventually the correction will be complete. 13-17% will be catastropic. That is way more than a correction. Homes and other property still have value and I just don't see the prices falling below value. Everything is rising in cost. I agree that houses were over valued but if they dropped another 10% they will be under valued and the market will begin to stabilize. If the housing market keeps correcting like predicted then they will be less expensive than cars.

I disagree with your thinking.......

Housing took a HUGE run up in pricing.

Ask yourself this, if housing came down another 15%, how much would that house have apprecieated since 1996?...............the answer is still well above 6% which isn't bad.............now throw the credit mess into the equation and a decline of 15% from here seems well into the realm of possibility to this observer.........sure Dawoof would agree with me.......and in fact, he probably would even be more bearish than than me over the housing market in the next 12-30 months.

patswin · Mar 7, 2008

Fishhead said:
ETRADE lowered their savings rate today to 3.45%.......which after taxes and inflation is a losing proposition.

fish you do you figure this, i've seen it before but never quite understood it

Fishhead · Mar 7, 2008

Fishhead said:
I disagree with your thinking.......

Housing took a HUGE run up in pricing.

Ask yourself this, if housing came down another 15%, how much would that house have apprecieated since 1996?...............the answer is still well above 6% which isn't bad.............now throw the credit mess into the equation and a decline of 15% from here seems well into the realm of possibility to this observer.........sure Dawoof would agree with me.......and in fact, he probably would even be more bearish than than me over the housing market in the next 12-30 months.

Think about this, purchased a house in 1997 at 125,000..........seven years later in 2004 it was valued at 334,000!!!

That type of appreciation has a lot of correcting to do........and again, couple that with the credit mess and.........

WVU · Mar 7, 2008

Fishhead said:
I disagree with your thinking.......

Housing took a HUGE run up in pricing.

Ask yourself this, if housing came down another 15%, how much would that house have apprecieated since 1996?...............the answer is still well above 6% which isn't bad.............now throw the credit mess into the equation and a decline of 15% from here seems well into the realm of possibility to this observer.........sure Dawoof would agree with me.......and in fact, he probably would even be more bearish than than me over the housing market in the next 12-30 months.

How much were cars in 1996? How much was milk and orange juice and gasoline? All of them appreciated much more than 6% so why wouldn't housing?

WVU · Mar 7, 2008

Fishhead said:
Think about this, purchased a house in 1997 at 125,000..........seven years later in 2004 it was valued at 334,000!!!

That type of appreciation has a lot of correcting to do........and again, couple that with the credit mess and.........

stop scaring me. How much do you think that house should be worth now?

lapdance · Mar 7, 2008

banks and builders have way more inventory than they want.

within a 8 block area of my home, a builder knocked down 7 houses so he could build bigger ones.
five are built and have not sold and the other three he quit building[an eyesore]. all in the 1.1m to 1.7 m range. theirs no hope for these to sell. tough to get the loans and very hard to pay the taxes and insurance.

djmatt · Mar 7, 2008

Inflation figures vary by who you are talking to.. but I'm in the same predicament and have a large amount of cash and CD rates are going down.. MMA accounts droppin and savings rates.. 3.4% is the highest I've seen posted anywhere

Fishhead · Mar 7, 2008

patswin said:
fish you do you figure this, i've seen it before but never quite understood it

Inflation is around 3%, and gaining as the US dollars worth has has become less and less on a weekly basis.

If your money is making 3%, it is basically just staying even with the rate of inflation in for things we need........housing, food, gas, etc., etc...............and then one has to pay taxes on these small gains to further diminish these returns.

I guess it's still better than having it hid under a mattrass or in the bottom of an aquarium someplace.

Fishhead · Mar 7, 2008

WVU said:
stop scaring me. How much do you think that house should be worth now?

Around 245,000..........which is still double it's value of only 10-11 years earlier and still overvalued in my opinion.

As stated, this correction needed and the credit mess situation states to me we are going nowhere but considerably lower(15+%)........then I think we are going to look at some stablizaion in prices for no less than 3 years.