Formula 1 Season 2008 Australian GP [0-0-0 |+0.000 units | +0.00% ROI]

Finally the new Formula 1 season is about to start again. Will once again give it my best this season to find valuable bets like last year.
Still have a lot of homework to do before the start of the first race next weekend in Australia. Hope this season will be as interesting as last year.

Strategy this year will be slightly different, I will try to be a bit more selective and mainly look for bets at the bigger bookmakers even though a lot will probably still come from Bwin & Bet365

Stakes will be as following:
2 units= high odds bets.
3 units = flatbetting ~80% of the picks.
4 units = strong picks.
5 units = picks involving team news where book still has to adjust line.

Handicapping Record so far on TheRX:
Formula 1 Season 2007 TheRX posting record 49-36-3 (+15,33 % ROI)
Jupiler League Season 06/07 TheRX posting record 25-13-7 (+18,20 % ROI)
Jupiler League Season 07/08 TheRX posting record 23-9-4 (+36,65 % ROI)
Cyclo-Cross Season 2007 TheRX posting record 2-0-0 (+52,50 % ROI)

Will be here with something for the first race next week !

Good luck. Cant believe it's here already.

Enjoy formula 1. Taping the races that sometimes start at ridiculous hours helps. The whole process is far more interesting to me than Nascar.

First early bet of the Season =)

Formula 1 Season 2008 [Bet 01]
Pick: Ferrari to take the Pole Position
Odds: 1.82 (Ladbrokes + Expect -> customised odds)
Stake: 3 units (Normal Flatbetting stake)

There are a couple reasons why I favor one of the Ferrari drivers to take the pole position this weekend in Melbourne. One thing everyone seems to be agreeing upon at the start of the new season is that for now it will still be Ferrari & Mclaren who will be leading the show. Last season those 2 teams were responsible for an inmpressive domination over BMW, and an even more impressive domination over all the other teams. Every single Pole Position / Race win & Fastest lap during the race were captured by those 2 teams alone. This type of supremacy is hard to break over the winter in a sport like Formula 1 where teams build their new car by improving the old one. Any car besides the Ferrari or Mclaren taking the pole whould be a huge upset. Being down to 2 teams there are many reasons why Ferrari should be a bigger favorite in this spot.

Ferrari won the drivers & construction championship last season which is something which should be given much more credit then most people do.
It was the year after Schumacher & Brawn and at times they weren't really theirselves lacking some reliability, drivers making some mistakes and some circuits not being suited for the radically long-wheelbased F2007. Still they came trough and won it with Raikonnen who didn't even really felt at home in his new team. For this season, the entire team stayed togheter and Kimi is totally adapted to the new car and the team feeling he belongs there ready and motivated to race again. With 2 experianced drivers and the expertise of Micheal Schumacher they have an excellent package to help with the development of the new car, specially after the traction control was taken away. In the past there have been a couple driver switches which made it clear how important it can be to a team. Alonso going from Renault to Mclaren last season was one of those with the performance of the renault going way down and that one of Mclaren going seriously up. Having an experianced driver helping with the development of the car is important in Formula 1. Both Mclaren drivers have only been in Formula 1 for a single year which should give Ferrari the upper hand.

Last season opening race was totally dominated by Ferrari, with Kimi taking the pole and victory for his new team. Being adapted to the team and car by now is ony and extra reason why he should perform even better. Hamilton was the revelation last season and now has to comfirm which is always much more difficult and he is known to fail under real pressure. Both Mclaren drivers also only have 1 year experiance on the track, wich is a lot less compared to both Ferrari drivers. Kovalainen had a really bad opening race last year where he wanted to go to fast which caused a lot of driving mistakes, don't think he will make that mistake again and drive a bit more controlled.

During the winter tests Ferrari seemed to be very fast overall and in all interviews they sound extremely confident. Mclaren seemed to be giving an answer to this during the latest test sessions in Barcelona on which Felippe Massa responded "When your rivals are testing for qualifying conditions, it is obvious that they will be quicker than you if you are testing for the races, We did qualifying testing the previous week, and I beat the track record. In Australia we will understand (the real situation), for sure"

I believe there is a big chance that Ferrari will once again dominate the 1st Grand Prix weekend of the season and take the pole. With both drivers having proven to be capable to drive the fastest lap they should have at least 62% to take the Pole Position. The big asian books give around 2.50 for kimi to take the pole. Expekt and Ladbrokes are currently still offering nice prices. A lot of times in Formula 1 bets I will make custom odds combining different bookmakers (better possible bets, higer odds + higher limits). Taking this one early because if what I believe turns out to be right odds will fall if ferrari is fast during the Practice sessions on the first race day.

1.32 Units on Massa to take the Pole @ 4.15 (Expekt) (4.00 available bluesq, boyle, coral)
1.68 Units on Raikkonen to take the Pole @ 3.25 (Ladbrokes / bluesq)
So 3 Units on Ferrari to take the Pole Position @ 1.82

Taking Kimi to take the pole & No bet if it's Massa is also an option

Formula 1 Season 2008 [Bet 02]

Pick: Alonso + Vettel > Piquet + Bourdais (Free Practice 1)
Odds: 1.68 (Bwin)
Stake: 1 units (Action)

I usually don't do this but the new season had me way to excited, Practice starts in 20 minutes, so small write-up

Alonso back at renault more motivated then ever, he was able to get the fastest free practice time last season. Circuit is new to Piquet who announced he was not going to make the same mistakes as kovalainen during his rookie 1st GP. So no reason for him to push to the limit.

Vettel in his 2nd year has experiance on the track, Bourdais comes from chap car being used to slick tires which is a huge difference with F1 tyres. He allready said he had serious problems adapting to the new tyres. Now on a circuit were cars only drive once each year there is a known problem to have be a lack of grip on it's own. This combined with him being used to slicks will make it difficult to get in front driving this track for the 1st time against his more experianced team mate.

Would be surprised if anything else then technical problems will cause this bet to lose. Not really pleased with the odds so only taking this up as a small action bet.

So 1 Units on Alonso (1.20) +Vettel (1.40) > Piquet+Bourdais During Free Practice 1 @ 1.68

Little update after the 1st Raceday. It's quite clear that Ferrari & Mclaren are still way ahead of the rest. Kimi set the fastest lap on the 1st day during the 1st session when there was less grip compared to the 2nd time of Hamilton who was 0.1 sec slower. Free sessions give a nice indication but do defenatly not say it all. odds droped everywhere on the Ferrari Pole bet and are now about the right price at 1.667

Formula 1 Season 2008 [Bet 03]Pick: Qualif combo
Kovalainen > Alonso
Webber > Coultard
Rosberg > Nakajima


Not often it is possible to find a couple low odds that are overpriced at the same bookmaker. Bet24 is currently offering a nice opportunity to parlay a couple high % bets.

* Kovalainen @ 1.40 > Alonso = F1 is a technical sport and the car is key factor. Mclaren and Ferrari have shown to be still way in front of everyone else. Renault has still a whole lot of ground to make up and Alonso is predicting that they will have a tough time to qualify in front. Difference in time between the 2 during the first race day was more then 1 sec. 75%

* Webber @ 1.35 > Coultard = Webber probably the best qualif driver around is driving at home and has been extremely fast during the 1st race day. The H2H between these 2 in qualif speaks for itself. 15-2 in favor of webber, failing for as far as I can remember at least once because of technical problems. 80%

* Rosberg @ 1.30 vs Nakajima = Rosberg has shown to be fast enough times dominating mast years team mate wurz in every aspect. Now Nakajima is his team mate. With the williams using the toyota motor, there has been big pressure on them to have a japanese driver. Even though Nakajima is fast at times, I still believe toyota is the main reason for his seat with williams. Rosberg should be able to stay ahead.

The only way I see one of these H2H bets lose is because of technical problems or possible crash during the session. The bookmakers favorites have so far about a 90% hitrate in the H2H bets. Would be surprised if alonso, coultard or Nakajima could beat their H2H rivals.

I'm taking this up in 2 bets counting it in total as a 3 unit bet.

2 Units on Kovalainen+Webber > Alonso+Coultard @ 1.89 (Bet24)
1 Unit on Kovalainen+Webber+Rosberg > Alonso+Coultard+Nakajima @ 2.45 (Bet24)

Tough start of the new season, Kimi having technical problems & Webber going off the track killed both early. Quite often in formula 1 bets win or lose because of factors like this that are always being taken under concideration before taking it up to bet. Going to have a close look today if there is something interesting available for the Race. will update later on...

i ll also have a look later on ..looking forward to your plays

i like
Trulli over DC @ 1.92
Trulli from 6 and DC from 8, but the Toyata seems overall the better car.

Kubica over Rosberg @1.45

Not only Kubica from 2nd and Rosberg from 7. The BMW should be the better and more reliable car than the Williams anyway

Massa- Raikkonen @1.33 in parlay with Heidfeld over Alonso @1.40

Kimi had technical problems and is way back in starting grid. he will come forward, but to make up 11 positions to the own team mate is only possible if Massa goes oot IMO.

Heidfeld has the better car and 6th places ahead of Alonso. i dont care the Alonso has a good name. he has an inferior car..

good luck guys, excited about the race, starts in 15 minutes

What a mess of a race. Hamilton just cruised to victory.

I hit a nice one on Kovalianen at fastest lap at +900. Very happy bout that.:toast:

Very bad day for us Ferrari fans. But we will be back!


GD, that is a dang nice hit. You really have to know your stuff to get down on something like that.

Note to Kimi: Kimi, when you try to over take in the corner you can't power through it on bare tyres. Never mind the fact there is no traction control.

When he tried to make that pass for 2nd, and went into the rough. That was pretty much it and down hill from there.

Ferrari will be back! We are winners.

Formula Season 08 Record:

Picks = 3 | Won / Lost / No Bet = 1 / 2 / 0 (33,3% winners)
Units Bet = 7 units
Units Return = 1.680 unit
Profit = - 5.320 Units
ROI = - 76,00 %

Race 01 Australian GP Record: 1 - 2| - 5.320 Units (-76% ROI)<!-- / message -->