I wouldn't touch any financials right now. I also wouldn't be surprise if they decided to cut dividends in the near future.
If they are unable to raise more cash for future write downs. This stock will tank..
Just sit and wait things out. I don't see an end in sight. Too risky at this point...
But if you are going to get in...Do a dollar cost average...
Good Luck...
If they are unable to raise more cash for future write downs. This stock will tank..
Just sit and wait things out. I don't see an end in sight. Too risky at this point...
But if you are going to get in...Do a dollar cost average...
Good Luck...
Why try to catch a falling knife? Guy is right too, they are going to be forced to cut dividends (AGAIN) as this credit crisis deepens. In the climate we have right now I wouldn't count any financial as a "long-term" investment. Who knows how long they will be around?
This one really stinks too. Ask your self this, why would the Arabs "lend" them money at loan-shark rates if they were such a good investment? A bank makes money by taking in deposits and paying a low interest rate on them, while lending out the money at a higher rate. This spread is how all banks make money. If Citi is lending out at 6-8% and paying the Arabs 14% how are they making money? Last week there was an article saying that the Arabs were not going to add anymore capital to "save" Citi.
The markets have broken some key technical levels in the past few days and the future looks awful dim. Make sure you are really doing your Due Diligence on anything you look to get into. And don't buy into the CNBS hype about buying opportunities. Bear markets are vicious, ask the people who thought they were buying the dips all the way to the bottom in the last one.
For disclosure all my long-term investments are in Treasuries with a small slice in some inverse ETFs since we broke the 20 yr weekly S&P trend back in Feb. Maybe I am being cautious but in a bear market your motto should be "return OF capital" not "return ON capital". I have an account that I trade daily and/or play lottery tickets on but those holdings have nothing to do with long term outlooks.
This one really stinks too. Ask your self this, why would the Arabs "lend" them money at loan-shark rates if they were such a good investment? A bank makes money by taking in deposits and paying a low interest rate on them, while lending out the money at a higher rate. This spread is how all banks make money. If Citi is lending out at 6-8% and paying the Arabs 14% how are they making money? Last week there was an article saying that the Arabs were not going to add anymore capital to "save" Citi.
The markets have broken some key technical levels in the past few days and the future looks awful dim. Make sure you are really doing your Due Diligence on anything you look to get into. And don't buy into the CNBS hype about buying opportunities. Bear markets are vicious, ask the people who thought they were buying the dips all the way to the bottom in the last one.
For disclosure all my long-term investments are in Treasuries with a small slice in some inverse ETFs since we broke the 20 yr weekly S&P trend back in Feb. Maybe I am being cautious but in a bear market your motto should be "return OF capital" not "return ON capital". I have an account that I trade daily and/or play lottery tickets on but those holdings have nothing to do with long term outlooks.
Yep the Fed's $200 billion injection is a smoke screen for how bad
things are.
Signs when we are near a bottom:
A major failing of a large bank. Not Yet
A major failing of a large home builder. Not Yet
50% cash reserve at this point would be good. I see big buying opportunities further down the road.
As for financials, I wouldn't be surprise to see many of those stocks
fall another 50% from these levels.
Good luck to all..
things are.
Signs when we are near a bottom:
A major failing of a large bank. Not Yet
A major failing of a large home builder. Not Yet
50% cash reserve at this point would be good. I see big buying opportunities further down the road.
As for financials, I wouldn't be surprise to see many of those stocks
fall another 50% from these levels.
Good luck to all..
It is wrong to get in now,you can get better return by staying aside and wait first for that negative trend to end,
banks are not among the better sections to invest in these days either.If i were you rather than thinking long term
i would focus on short term going short on some companies and indexs.
Whitney said the book value of C is $10.00-$12.00. She is the one who said that they would have to cut the dividend 2 months before it happened. She was ridiculed and derided but proven right. She said they are facing the same problems again (liquidity) and sees them reaching their book value.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=698017587
Around the 4 min mark is a graphic
6:45 she mentions the book values
7:30 says she sees C eliminating its Dividend completely.
Take it for what you want, but she is a really sharp tack.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=698017587
Around the 4 min mark is a graphic
6:45 she mentions the book values
7:30 says she sees C eliminating its Dividend completely.
Take it for what you want, but she is a really sharp tack.
If your looking to trade, the financials are a nice pond to fish in. The volatility lets you make money on the ups and downs. I have been trading many of them on their short term moves while maintaining a forward rolling PUT plan on some.
I am just raising the issues I have seen for long term investors. If you get in Stock X at $20.00 and over the next six months the bear market takes you down to $10.00 thats a 50% loss. In order to break even you need a 100% return. That could take years. If you bought the S&P Spider (SPY) in January of '02 when many people were claiming the bottom was in and we were on the road to recovery you would've had a 35% loss in 9 months and it would've taken until Nov/Dec of '05 to break even. This is why I mentioned the catching a falling knife in my first post. If you are doing regular, cost average investing that is one thing. Trying to "guess" when a bottom is in is what keeps the pigmen on Wall St living their lavish lifestyles. Good luck on your trades.
I am just raising the issues I have seen for long term investors. If you get in Stock X at $20.00 and over the next six months the bear market takes you down to $10.00 thats a 50% loss. In order to break even you need a 100% return. That could take years. If you bought the S&P Spider (SPY) in January of '02 when many people were claiming the bottom was in and we were on the road to recovery you would've had a 35% loss in 9 months and it would've taken until Nov/Dec of '05 to break even. This is why I mentioned the catching a falling knife in my first post. If you are doing regular, cost average investing that is one thing. Trying to "guess" when a bottom is in is what keeps the pigmen on Wall St living their lavish lifestyles. Good luck on your trades.
Bank earnings coming next week and they may choppy.
Set a stop loss limit down 10%-15% from current price and let it run.
Good call on C.
I made a similar play earlier this year in January here in the financial room I used XLF and VNQ. VNQ so far has made a VERY nice move, this is what I am doing on that. XLF has been OK and am still averaging on weakness.
For the record, I think Meredith Whitney is a lot more about hyping herself lately. When I start seeing an analyst on CNBC a ton I know it's time to start listening to their advice with a very critical ear...
Set a stop loss limit down 10%-15% from current price and let it run.
Good call on C.
I made a similar play earlier this year in January here in the financial room I used XLF and VNQ. VNQ so far has made a VERY nice move, this is what I am doing on that. XLF has been OK and am still averaging on weakness.
For the record, I think Meredith Whitney is a lot more about hyping herself lately. When I start seeing an analyst on CNBC a ton I know it's time to start listening to their advice with a very critical ear...
