When was the last time someone led the majors in homeruns with historically wretched K/BB ratios as Soriano and Braun have? Dawson in 87, maybe Matt Williams in 94. Obviously a walk takes away a chance to hit a homerun, but being behind in the count so often is even worse
Ortiz hit 35 with a bad knee, but what is the chance that someone weighing 250+ is going to be fully recovered? And as a left-handed hitter in Fenway he needed to hit 32 on the road just to finish second two years ago
Like Howard a lot, but doubt the odds are good enough
Really, though, in any 200 horse field the best bet is to usually risk no more than $2
Ortiz hit 35 with a bad knee, but what is the chance that someone weighing 250+ is going to be fully recovered? And as a left-handed hitter in Fenway he needed to hit 32 on the road just to finish second two years ago
Like Howard a lot, but doubt the odds are good enough
Really, though, in any 200 horse field the best bet is to usually risk no more than $2
See if we can break this down. These are the HR leaders for the last ten years. Notice there has not been a AB/HR ratio over 13.00.
Now here are the players still active who have in the past had AB/HR ratios better than 13.00. HRPF is the park factor for their current park. It is based on HR only, the higher the number, the more HR friendly the park.
Code:
YR NAME AB/HR
2007 arod 10.80
2006 howard 10.00
2005 jones 11.50
2004 beltre 12.50
2003 thome 12.30
arod 12.90
2002 arod 10.90
2001 bonds 6.50
2000 sosa 12.10
1999 mcgwire 8.00
1998 mcgwire 7.30Now here are the players still active who have in the past had AB/HR ratios better than 13.00. HRPF is the park factor for their current park. It is based on HR only, the higher the number, the more HR friendly the park.
Code:
YR NAME AB/HR HRPF
2001 bonds 6.50 na
2004 bonds 8.30
2003 bonds 8.70
2002 bonds 8.80
2000 bonds 9.80
1994 bonds 10.60
1993 bonds 11.70
1996 bonds 12.30
2001 sosa 9.00 na
1998 sosa 9.70
1999 sosa 9.90
2002 sosa 11.30
2000 sosa 12.10
1996 sosa 12.50
2003 sosa 12.90
2002 thome 9.20 1.13
2001 thome 10.70
2006 thome 11.70
2004 thome 12.10
2003 thome 12.30
2007 thome 12.30
1997 thome 12.40
2006 howard 10.00 1.11
2007 howard 11.30
2006 ortiz 10.30 0.95
2005 ortiz 12.80
1994 thomas 10.50 1.08
2006 thomas 11.90
1995 thomas 12.30
2001 gonzalez10.70 0.95
2007 pena 10.70 0.99
1994 griffey 10.80 1.09
1997 griffey 10.90
1996 griffey 11.10
1998 griffey 11.30
1999 griffey 12.60
1993 griffey 12.90
2006 hafner 10.80 0.94
2007 arod 10.80 1.02
2002 arod 10.90
2001 arod 12.20
2005 arod 12.60
2003 arod 12.90
2006 pujols 10.90 0.94
2004 pujols 12.90
2003 edmonds 11.50 0.90
2004 edmonds 11.90
2000 edmonds 12.50
2007 fielder 11.50 1.04
2005 a jones 11.50 1.04
2000 ramirez 11.60 0.95
1999 ramirez 11.90
2005 ramirez 12.30
1998 ramirez 12.70
2006 ramirez 12.80
2001 ramirez 12.90
2000 sheffield11.70 0.97
1994 sheffield11.90
1996 sheffield12.40
2006 berkman 11.90 1.05
2000 giambi 11.90 1.02
2006 giambi 12.10
2000 glaus 12.00 0.94
2001 helton 12.00 1.09
2004 dunn 12.30 1.09
2006 dye 12.30 1.13
2006 beltran 12.40 0.94
1999 c jones 12.60 0.98
2005 lee 12.90 1.06
