Baseball is almost upon us..Betting The Bases...

wilheim · Mar 14, 2008

I was checking out the Gamblers Book Shop website while reading the thread about counting cards at blackjack and remembered a book that anyone who caps baseball should have (costs less than $10)..

Mike Lee's "Betting The Bases" is well worth the small investment if you cap bases.

BETTING THE BASES
by Lee, Mike
Order 062313...$8.95
Lee’s classic describes the importance of comparing opposing teams, analyzing statistical trends, including “freak” occurrences. It concludes with strategies for both the beginner at baseball handicapping and the more experienced bettor. There are good ideas presented here on how to bet teams on a streak; peaking teams; the effect of homestands; betting on doubleheaders; the effect of a layoff on starting pitchers. Among the first books to concentrate on handicapping baseball, this one is a classic that's stood the test of time and its information can be applied to today's game. 64 pages, paperbound, 1981.

You can order it online and have it in a few days by UPS..

Gamblers Book Shop...

BOL. wil...

Iceman · Mar 14, 2008

Actually have this book Wil.

Think I will grab it off the shelf tonite and read it. Thanks for the reminder. :103631605

winbet · Mar 14, 2008

The old adage "too much knowledge can be a bad thing" always comes to mind with Gambling Books. Not that Books cannot teach you the fundamentals and basics of strategy but successful betting is all about edges that the Books dont cater for and the only ones found in a Book are old ones.

When was the last time you seen My cutting edge "Two fingers up the arse staking plan" or "pants down on 3rd down play" or " disappearing nuts early warning play" IN A BOOK. :missingte :drink:

12thRound · Mar 14, 2008

can anybody vouch for this book really helping them win more money in baseball?

Anyone? Bueller?

ILMW · Mar 14, 2008

winbet said:
The old adage "too much knowledge can be a bad thing" always comes to mind with Gambling Books. Not that Books cannot teach you the fundamentals and basics of strategy but successful betting is all about edges that the Books dont cater for and the only ones found in a Book are old ones.

When was the last time you seen My cutting edge "Two fingers up the arse staking plan" or "pants down on 3rd down play" or " disappearing nuts early warning play" IN A BOOK. :missingte :drink:

Winny very classy avatar.

:103631605

PatPatriot · Mar 15, 2008

I have the book. Its pretty good but a little dated.Its good if you like systems which I do.There's some pretty good tips in it.
It emphasizes discipline to grind out a profit.Which you really have to do and practice in bases.
Baseball by far is the most fun to bet IMO.

wilheim · Mar 15, 2008

12thRound I recommend "Betting Baseball 2007" by Michael Murray, (Amazon.com).

Betting Baseball by Michael Murray is the best book on handicapping baseball published to date. This book is a must have for anyone looking to handicap professional baseball.

For the beginning bettor, Murray covers the basics of betting baseball by giving a thorough explanation of the money line, run line, and totals. Also included is a list of quality offshore sportsbooks to consider betting with.

With the basics covered, Murray begins to dive into the various aspects of handicapping a professional baseball game. Aspects such as home field advantage, measuring offense, dealing with injuries, and pitching are covered.

For measuring offense, Murray gives a solid explanation of measuring a player or team's offensive power rating. The power rating is fairly simple to calculate, and an explanation on calculating this power rating (OPS) using on base percentage (OB%), slugging percentage (SLG%), and expected at-bats is covered. Lastly, a section covering injuries is included to provide the handicapper with a method for adjusting the power rating due to injury.

Next, Murray dives into various aspects of pitching. Murray starts with uncovering the impact pitching has on a baseball game (it's less than what you might think). Next, he describes various pitching statistics useful to the handicapper. These statistics include ERA, expected ERA (xERA), WHIP, ground to fly ball ratio, and much more.

Lastly, Murray brings it all together for the reader. He describes how to create your own line with offensive and pitching statistics. He also goes on to describe other important factors the handicapper should take into account: how the weather affects the game, other park factors, and umpires.

If you only have time to read one book on handicapping baseball then this is the one you should read. It is well worth the price.

Write up by Ryan J. Parker..

Betting Baseball 2007 at Amazon.

Highlighted passages are key IMO.

BOL. wil.

TheWolf · Mar 15, 2008

Ive yet to do two things.....

#1 Read a gambling book that has provided me with any sure fire secrets to win on gambling.

#2. Win on baseball consistently over the course of a season.

I dont think I am going to bet bases this year becasue of that too. I've played, coached , umpired baseball/softball my whole life. It is my #1 sport. I know almost every in and out of it, yet I cant win at it

PS...I dont like Martingales or systems either for baseball.

PatPatriot · Mar 15, 2008

Betting Baseball by Michael Murray is the best book on handicapping baseball published to date. This book is a must have for anyone looking to handicap professional baseball.

I got that one too.Too much noise for my taste.Great info though.

I like stuff thats simple you can get buried in stats.

My stuff is like if you bet the dog of any Red Sox/Yankee games over the last 8 years you would have made a very nice score.
I don't care who pitching.I don't care where the winds blowing.I don't care about all the bullshit.Just play who ever the dog is in those games.
You would have won at about a 55% clip, and scored some nice +200 dogs along the way.

newb411breaker19 · Mar 15, 2008

wilheim said:
Betting Baseball by Michael Murray is the best book on handicapping baseball published to date. This book is a must have for anyone looking to handicap professional baseball.

For the beginning bettor, Murray covers the basics of betting baseball by giving a thorough explanation of the money line, run line, and totals. Also included is a list of quality offshore sportsbooks to consider betting with.

With the basics covered, Murray begins to dive into the various aspects of handicapping a professional baseball game. Aspects such as home field advantage, measuring offense, dealing with injuries, and pitching are covered.

For measuring offense, Murray gives a solid explanation of measuring a player or team's offensive power rating. The power rating is fairly simple to calculate, and an explanation on calculating this power rating (OPS) using on base percentage (OB%), slugging percentage (SLG%), and expected at-bats is covered. Lastly, a section covering injuries is included to provide the handicapper with a method for adjusting the power rating due to injury.

Next, Murray dives into various aspects of pitching. Murray starts with uncovering the impact pitching has on a baseball game (it's less than what you might think). Next, he describes various pitching statistics useful to the handicapper. These statistics include ERA, expected ERA (xERA), WHIP, ground to fly ball ratio, and much more.

Lastly, Murray brings it all together for the reader. He describes how to create your own line with offensive and pitching statistics. He also goes on to describe other important factors the handicapper should take into account: how the weather affects the game, other park factors, and umpires.

If you only have time to read one book on handicapping baseball then this is the one you should read. It is well worth the price.

Write up by Ryan J. Parker..

Betting Baseball 2007 at Amazon.

Highlighted passages are key IMO.

BOL. wil.

ditto, I agree, this is the best book for baseball betting

BEANTOWNJIM · Mar 15, 2008

THERE USED TO BE A THEORY THAT GUYS WOULD LINE UP ALLDAY LONG AND BET THE 2ND HALF OF A DOUBLE HEADER FIGURING ITS VERY HARD FOR ANY TEAM TO SWEEP BOTH GAMES.IT USED TO BE A GOOD BET BUT I HAVENT BEEN FOLLOWING IT LATELY.

BET THE 2ND GAME OF A DOUBLE HEADER AND TAKE THE TEAM WHO LOST THE FIRST GAME :103631605

:money8:

whalewager · Mar 15, 2008

bet the dogs and go to sleep

wilheim · Mar 15, 2008

An old system.

Wait for a team to win or lose four straight games -- then bet on the team on the winning streak until they lose and against the team on the losing streak until they win. Obviously you are looking to catch teams that go on 8,9, 10 or more streaks one way or another.

Easy system to backtrack on by just going through last year's or however many prevous year's schedules you want and see what the results yield. Natrually for real accuaracy you will need an archive with the consensus or opening or closing price on all games included (Gold Sheet possibly).

The system takes discipline and patience because they will be a lot of days when there are no games to bet because of the criteria. So if you have to have action everyday this system is not for you.

wil..

Santo · Mar 15, 2008

I will echo the recommendation for Murray's book. I would have advised getting it a bit earlier before the season, as it takes a while to absorb and implement (in spreadsheets or whatever).

Texas-Winners · Mar 15, 2008

i always thought it was 3 games wil.......

bellyputter · Mar 15, 2008

I quit wagering on baseball at the All-Star break in 1983(Fred Lynn-Atlee Hammaker), and have never looked back.

wilheim · Mar 15, 2008

Texas-Winners

i always thought it was 3 games wil

I suppose you could use either number. Best way to settle which is better would be to do some research over the past several seasons and compare the results of both 3 and 4 games streaks.

Bellyputter.

I remember the 83 All Star game really well as Fred Lynn was named MVP solely on the single at bat and what is still the only Grand Slam homer ever hit in All Star game competition. Atlee Hammaker had the worst performance by a pitcher in the history of the All Star game. He faced 9 batters, retired two, gave up 6 hits, 7 runs, two homers (Jim Rice hit a solo shot to go with Lynn's Grand Salami) and walked one in the two thirds of an inning he worked during a 13-3 AL win.

Some of the blame can be placed on National League manager Whitey Herzog who ordered Robin Yount, the preceding batter before Lynn, walked intentionally, which turned out not to be a good idea. "I took it personally," Lynn said later. By '83, Lynn had four home runs and ten runs batted in with twenty All-Star at-bats. Only Ted Williams had a higher All-Star RBI count, with twelve in forty-six at-bats.

Oddly enough Hammaker did not get the loss - that distinction went to the Reds' righty Mario Soto who started the game for the NL and gave up 2 runs (both unearned) in two innings of work and left trailing 2-1. Hammaker then came out for the third inning and became immortalized by Fred Lynn.

The game was the last All Star games for HOFers Johnny Bench (14 games) and Carl Yaztremski (18 games)..

wil..

Iceman · Mar 15, 2008

add me to the list of people who have the Michael Murray book. I am huge reader of gambling type books (more for pure entairtainment than anything) and baseball is clearly behind the major sports when it comes to good gambling reading matieral. Honestly can learn more on the forums than you can from a whole bookshelf of gambling books but with that said I still love reading them.

newb411breaker19 · Mar 16, 2008

Santo said:
I will echo the recommendation for Murray's book. I would have advised getting it a bit earlier before the season, as it takes a while to absorb and implement (in spreadsheets or whatever).

yep, very true, I've fallen behind and need to do quite a bit of work on this before the season arrives. I try to implement the bill james projections into the numbers.. plus i use a little bit of a different formula on offensive power numbers to account for baseruning.

good luck to you on the season

TheWolf · Mar 16, 2008

I had an old bookie who said......beton a ,.500 or better team that wins 3 games in a row to win its fourth and fade a team that has lost 5 in a ow to lose its 6th,,,,,,,he gave me percentages of around 68% and 75%....think this was around.....1995-96.....no idea how it has done over the years. If anyone can backtrack it let me know.