Quick question for the Baseball experts...

Paid2play · Mar 22, 2008

1. What percent of the time do the favorites cover in the MLB? I thought I saw 65%.

2. What percent of the time do HOME favorites cover?

I'm thinking about running with the HOME FAVORITE 4D System this year and would just like to know the the percentages on Favorites.

Thanks for the help.

:toast:

SC_trojan · Mar 22, 2008

you will go broke laying heavy chalk in baseball

my $.02

SCT

psih · Mar 22, 2008

1. Favorites

2. Home Favorites

If you want results for a particular team use team=Rockies for instance

Paid2play · Mar 23, 2008

Thanks psih! Thats exactly the type of site I was looking for.

Paid2play · Mar 23, 2008

psih said:
1. Favorites

2. Home Favorites

If you want results for a particular team use team=Rockies for instance

As great as this site is, I can't seem to get some info that I'm looking for:

For the last 3 years :After a team (that goes over 55% of the time) plays 3 straight unders, what's percentage of time does the fourth game go over? The fifth?

For the last 3 years: After a team (that goes under 55% of the time) plays 3 straight overs, what's percentage of the time does the fourth game go under? The fifth?

Maybe I can't find that info here. Thanks for your help anyway.

psih · Mar 23, 2008

Paid2play

I don't know how to get there with one query but I think this will get what you want. Fist I did a search for "team and season=2007" and then sorted the results by the "% over" column. The search will return this.

Teams with an Over % of 55% or more are the Marlins, Brewers, Mets and Phillies. I then did a search for "team=Marlins,Brewers,Mets,Phillies and p:O and pp:O and ppp:O" The search will return this. These are the results of games after the three game over streak. If you wanted a four game over streak you would just add "and pppp:O" to the end of the search above. If you wanted to do unders just substitute U for O.

If you use only "team" in the search it will return four years of data. These are the results. Only Toronto falls outside the 45-55% range. Seems to suggest a regression from teams above 55% or below 45% for a single year.

Hope this helps

Paid2play · Mar 23, 2008

psih

Thanks for the info. I'll play with it right now. Really didn't intent for you to do so much work. Thanks again Buddy. Good luck this season.

:toast:

psih · Mar 23, 2008

Not a problem

I'm still playing around with it. If I find anything interesting I'll post it.
GL to you too

psih · Mar 23, 2008

Paid

I just noticed something from my post above. The second search should be "team=Marlins,Brewers,Mets,Phillies and season=2007 and p:O and pp:O and ppp:O" above 55% 2007

sorry about that

Paid2play · Mar 23, 2008

That new link doesn't seem to work...

By the way my plan is to do somthing I've been doing for the NBA: Wait for a team that's been going over or under 55% of the time to go opposite and then chase them for just 2 games to go back to their normal. However it is not a double up chase( the second bet is about a 70% increase from the first bet)

Chase record 41-6 (however I missed a few plays due to my schedule) but definately enjoyed doing it.

For baseball I'd wait 3 games before chasing (like GreenValley's System) but would like to use teams that are at 55% instead of 57% (more plays will increase losses but hopefully increase winnings more).

Again thanks for your help.
BTW, whats your betting style for baseball?

psih · Mar 23, 2008

I see now what you are getting at. For some reason I had it in my mind you were looking for teams that were above 55% for the entire year prior. If I understand you are waiting for a team to get above 55% in season and then start the fade? If that is the case then the numbers I've shown are a big waste of your time, sorry. I'll take another look when I have some time.

I mainly wager from player projections and match-ups. I do keep an eye open for obvious regressions but usually it's just to keep me away from negative trends on a larger scale.

Paid2play · Mar 23, 2008

Not exactly. For example:

The San Antonio Spurs are an Under Team.
Their games go under 68.2% of the time.
Once they go OVER 2 times in a row, I begin to play(chase) them Under.
I have played them four times this year and all four times they went under on the first game.

I do this with every NBA team that is 55% or more. I would like to do this or something like this with MLB. Probally after three straight in the opposite directions instead of two.

:toast:

psih · Mar 24, 2008

Ok Thanks for the explanation.

I can't find a way to use the "%over" as a parameter. I can pick out a fixed range of dates March 25th -->June !st 2007. That's about one third of the season. Then take the teams above 55% and search from June 1st --> end of season after a three game under streak. The problem with this is it includes all games from June 1st to the end of the season where the over percentage may fall below 55%. It will be much easier to follow during the season but difficult to backtest now.

Hopefully you can get more out of it by tweaking it a little. :toast:

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