...your Tampa Bay Devil Rays.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_y...g=sorrybosoxyanksrayshaveb&prov=tsn&type=lgns
With the American League East pitching rotations coming into focus, the division looks to produce four competitive starting staffs. The Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays have a mix of outstanding veterans and talented young pitchers.
Which starting rotation is best? The projections might be surprising.
First, let’s look at who’s who in each rotation:
Red Sox: Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz
Yankees: Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy
Blue Jays: Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum, Jesse Litsch
Rays: Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza, Andy Sonnanstine, Jason Hammel
Baseball Prospectus publishes player projections called PECOTA. PECOTAs feature a range of values, allowing readers to see the possible range and probability of various performances by pitchers and hitters.
This study looks at a 50-percentile range, from the productive 75th-percentile level at one end and the poor 25th-percentile level at the other.
PECOTA predicts equivalent ERA (eqERA), or ERA adjusted for ballparks, defense and time in the minor leagues for younger players. The statistic tries to erase factors that blur a pitcher’s true ability, such as pitching in an extreme park like pitcher-friendly Petco Park in San Diego.
For example, Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay comes in with a 3.50 eqERA at the 75th percentile (meaning he has a 75 percent chance of an eqERA 3.50 or higher) and a 4.81 eqERA at the 25th percentile (meaning he has a chance of an eqERA 4.81 or higher).
Using the predicted eqERA and innings pitched for the most likely rotations, the following table shows how the four teams fare at the high end of performance:
<table class="VTStandardTable"> <tbody><tr class="VTStandardTableHead"><td>
75th percentile predictions </td> </tr> <tr class="VTStandardTableOdd"><td> Team </td><td> Innings </td><td> eqERA </td></tr> <tr class="VTStandardTableEven"><td> Tampa Bay </td><td> 894 </td><td> 3.61 </td></tr> <tr class="VTStandardTableOdd"><td> Boston </td><td> 851 1/3 </td><td> 3.69 </td></tr> <tr class="VTStandardTableEven"><td> Toronto </td><td> 904 2/3 </td><td> 3.77 </td></tr> <tr class="VTStandardTableOdd"><td> New York </td><td> 842 </td><td> 3.79 </td></tr> </tbody></table>
That is an impressive high-end target for the Rays, a rotation made up entirely of youngsters (for this study, I used Jason Hammel instead of Edwin Jackson, since he projects to be the better fifth starter). The Rays keep that lead at the 25th percentile as well.
<table class="VTStandardTable"> <tbody><tr class="VTStandardTableHead"><td>
25th percentile predictions </td> </tr> <tr class="VTStandardTableOdd"><td> Team </td><td> Innings </td><td> eqERA </td></tr> <tr class="VTStandardTableEven"><td> Tampa Bay </td><td> 721 1/3 </td><td> 4.90 </td></tr> <tr class="VTStandardTableOdd"><td> Boston </td><td> 651 2/3 </td><td> 5.15 </td></tr> <tr class="VTStandardTableEven"><td> Toronto </td><td> 710 </td><td> 5.26 </td></tr> <tr class="VTStandardTableOdd"><td> New York </td><td> 651 2/3 </td><td> 5.38 </td></tr> </tbody></table>
Note that at the high end, the eqERAs spread out. The Rays go up about 1.3 runs, and the Yankees increase almost 1.6 runs. That’s another sign of the quality of the rotation, a small spread between low and high eqERAs.
The tables don’t tell the whole story, however. The predicted innings pitched put each team short of the 972 needed to average six innings per start, close to the 2007 major-league average. The replacement pitchers who make up those extra innings tend to be poor.
Last season, 602 starts (about 20 per team) went to pitchers who wound up with fewer than 10 starts on the season. Their ERA in those starts was 6.24. If we make up those missing innings with a 6.24 ERA, the teams look like this:
<table class="VTStandardTable"> <tbody><tr class="VTStandardTableHead"><td>
eqERA Adjusted for 972 Innings </td> </tr> <tr class="VTStandardTableOdd"><td> Team </td><td> 75th Pct. </td><td> 25th Pct. </td><td> Mid Point </td></tr> <tr class="VTStandardTableEven"><td> Tampa Bay </td><td> 3.82 </td><td> 5.24 </td><td> 4.53 </td></tr> <tr class="VTStandardTableOdd"><td> Toronto </td><td> 3.94 </td><td> 5.53 </td><td> 4.73 </td></tr> <tr class="VTStandardTableEven"><td> Boston </td><td> 4.01 </td><td> 5.51 </td><td> 4.76 </td></tr> <tr class="VTStandardTableOdd"><td> New York </td><td> 4.12 </td><td> 5.64 </td><td> 4.88 </td></tr> </tbody></table>
Although Boston has an overall better five-man rotation in terms of eqERA, Toronto’s rotation has more experience in the No. 4 and No. 5 slots, leading to a higher prediction of innings pitched. That keeps poor starters out of a job, and boosts the Blue Jays over the Red Sox. In a way, the Blue Jays are the Baby Bear of the AL East. The backend of the Blue Jays’ rotation isn’t too old, too young, but just right age to provide plenty of innings.
The wide range of possibilities for each team shows the difficulty in choosing the best rotation. Most teams will experience a mix of good and bad performances and probably end up near their midpoint.
Tampa Bay, however, stands a good chance of becoming the class of the AL East. The Rays show strength in eqERA and innings pitched at every level. With only three-tenths of a run separating the top from the bottom, these four teams should produce great pitching matchups as they face each other 108 times during the 2008 season.
David Pinto writes and edits BaseballMusings.com and is a frequent contributor to Sporting News.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_y...g=sorrybosoxyanksrayshaveb&prov=tsn&type=lgns
With the American League East pitching rotations coming into focus, the division looks to produce four competitive starting staffs. The Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays have a mix of outstanding veterans and talented young pitchers.
Which starting rotation is best? The projections might be surprising.
First, let’s look at who’s who in each rotation:
Red Sox: Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz
Yankees: Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy
Blue Jays: Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum, Jesse Litsch
Rays: Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza, Andy Sonnanstine, Jason Hammel
Baseball Prospectus publishes player projections called PECOTA. PECOTAs feature a range of values, allowing readers to see the possible range and probability of various performances by pitchers and hitters.
This study looks at a 50-percentile range, from the productive 75th-percentile level at one end and the poor 25th-percentile level at the other.
PECOTA predicts equivalent ERA (eqERA), or ERA adjusted for ballparks, defense and time in the minor leagues for younger players. The statistic tries to erase factors that blur a pitcher’s true ability, such as pitching in an extreme park like pitcher-friendly Petco Park in San Diego.
For example, Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay comes in with a 3.50 eqERA at the 75th percentile (meaning he has a 75 percent chance of an eqERA 3.50 or higher) and a 4.81 eqERA at the 25th percentile (meaning he has a chance of an eqERA 4.81 or higher).
Using the predicted eqERA and innings pitched for the most likely rotations, the following table shows how the four teams fare at the high end of performance:
<table class="VTStandardTable"> <tbody><tr class="VTStandardTableHead"><td>
75th percentile predictions </td> </tr> <tr class="VTStandardTableOdd"><td> Team </td><td> Innings </td><td> eqERA </td></tr> <tr class="VTStandardTableEven"><td> Tampa Bay </td><td> 894 </td><td> 3.61 </td></tr> <tr class="VTStandardTableOdd"><td> Boston </td><td> 851 1/3 </td><td> 3.69 </td></tr> <tr class="VTStandardTableEven"><td> Toronto </td><td> 904 2/3 </td><td> 3.77 </td></tr> <tr class="VTStandardTableOdd"><td> New York </td><td> 842 </td><td> 3.79 </td></tr> </tbody></table>
That is an impressive high-end target for the Rays, a rotation made up entirely of youngsters (for this study, I used Jason Hammel instead of Edwin Jackson, since he projects to be the better fifth starter). The Rays keep that lead at the 25th percentile as well.
<table class="VTStandardTable"> <tbody><tr class="VTStandardTableHead"><td>
25th percentile predictions </td> </tr> <tr class="VTStandardTableOdd"><td> Team </td><td> Innings </td><td> eqERA </td></tr> <tr class="VTStandardTableEven"><td> Tampa Bay </td><td> 721 1/3 </td><td> 4.90 </td></tr> <tr class="VTStandardTableOdd"><td> Boston </td><td> 651 2/3 </td><td> 5.15 </td></tr> <tr class="VTStandardTableEven"><td> Toronto </td><td> 710 </td><td> 5.26 </td></tr> <tr class="VTStandardTableOdd"><td> New York </td><td> 651 2/3 </td><td> 5.38 </td></tr> </tbody></table>
Note that at the high end, the eqERAs spread out. The Rays go up about 1.3 runs, and the Yankees increase almost 1.6 runs. That’s another sign of the quality of the rotation, a small spread between low and high eqERAs.
The tables don’t tell the whole story, however. The predicted innings pitched put each team short of the 972 needed to average six innings per start, close to the 2007 major-league average. The replacement pitchers who make up those extra innings tend to be poor.
Last season, 602 starts (about 20 per team) went to pitchers who wound up with fewer than 10 starts on the season. Their ERA in those starts was 6.24. If we make up those missing innings with a 6.24 ERA, the teams look like this:
<table class="VTStandardTable"> <tbody><tr class="VTStandardTableHead"><td>
eqERA Adjusted for 972 Innings </td> </tr> <tr class="VTStandardTableOdd"><td> Team </td><td> 75th Pct. </td><td> 25th Pct. </td><td> Mid Point </td></tr> <tr class="VTStandardTableEven"><td> Tampa Bay </td><td> 3.82 </td><td> 5.24 </td><td> 4.53 </td></tr> <tr class="VTStandardTableOdd"><td> Toronto </td><td> 3.94 </td><td> 5.53 </td><td> 4.73 </td></tr> <tr class="VTStandardTableEven"><td> Boston </td><td> 4.01 </td><td> 5.51 </td><td> 4.76 </td></tr> <tr class="VTStandardTableOdd"><td> New York </td><td> 4.12 </td><td> 5.64 </td><td> 4.88 </td></tr> </tbody></table>
Although Boston has an overall better five-man rotation in terms of eqERA, Toronto’s rotation has more experience in the No. 4 and No. 5 slots, leading to a higher prediction of innings pitched. That keeps poor starters out of a job, and boosts the Blue Jays over the Red Sox. In a way, the Blue Jays are the Baby Bear of the AL East. The backend of the Blue Jays’ rotation isn’t too old, too young, but just right age to provide plenty of innings.
The wide range of possibilities for each team shows the difficulty in choosing the best rotation. Most teams will experience a mix of good and bad performances and probably end up near their midpoint.
Tampa Bay, however, stands a good chance of becoming the class of the AL East. The Rays show strength in eqERA and innings pitched at every level. With only three-tenths of a run separating the top from the bottom, these four teams should produce great pitching matchups as they face each other 108 times during the 2008 season.
David Pinto writes and edits BaseballMusings.com and is a frequent contributor to Sporting News.
