What's the most accurate way to figure out Possessions per game??

Search

Member
Joined
Feb 23, 2007
Messages
583
Tokens
I found an error in my spreadsheet and I'm going in to fix them.

I have found on the internet:

possessions = field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers + 0.4 * free throw attempts.

[SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1]Possessions = FGA - (OREB / (OREB + DDREB)) x (FGA - FGM) x 1.07 + TO + 0.4 x FTA

I'm also curious where that .4 number comes from because i have seen different values for this as well. Is this number just the average percent a team goes to the line in a game? Is there a way i could calculate this myself to make it more accurate instead of just stealing the constant? In my spreedsheet i was for some god awful reason using FT% instead of that .4 Simple mistake but I need to fix it with the most accurate way possible. Thanks. [/SIZE][/SIZE]
 

New member
Joined
May 31, 2006
Messages
9,387
Tokens
The .4 is an estimation of how many free throws end with a change in possession. Feel free to calculate it yourself, but it involves going through a lot of play-by-plays, unless there's an easier way I haven't figured out.

Personally I use .46 for college, and something >.50 (I'll have to check) for NBA
 

Rx. Senior
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
7,744
Tokens
You could get an equation as long as your Arm but it depends what your purpose is, to save a lot of bollocks just times the average FG% of both teams by the Books Total on the Game. If there's any discrepancy to your usual findings shout,
EEIIIEEEEYYYYYEEE, I've found something lurking in the Biscuit Tin and go with whatever the Books lean is. :drink:
 

Rx. Senior
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
7,744
Tokens
Of course a more sensible approach would be to do anything one of our resident Sharps like Goodcall says :103631605 :drink:
 

Member
Joined
Feb 23, 2007
Messages
583
Tokens
Yto save a lot of bollocks just times the average FG% of both teams by the Books Total on the Game.

This would just give me the books opinion which is what I don't want. Books set their line a bit based on public perception. The idea is to be sharp which would require my own opinion, not the books.
 

Member
Joined
Feb 23, 2007
Messages
583
Tokens
Goodcall,

could you give me your NBA free throw multiplier?? I just found .475 for college which is close enough to your .46 I need it for NBA.
 

Rx. Senior
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
7,744
Tokens
This would just give me the books opinion which is what I don't want. Books set their line a bit based on public perception. The idea is to be sharp which would require my own opinion, not the books.

Thats the whole point. Your overall findings are not going to beat The Books opinion enough on a regular basis to beat the Vig, so instead of getting bogged down with reams of stats and hours of shoving a Pea around a plate use The books hard work to your advantage. At the end of the Day that will be the sharp line, they will be right more often than you so follow their lead, basically fading your own findings. I realise this is hard to do but either you want to win cash or become one of those statistical robots who cannot understand why they cant make the game pay. :drink:
 

New member
Joined
May 31, 2006
Messages
9,387
Tokens
Goodcall,

could you give me your NBA free throw multiplier?? I just found .475 for college which is close enough to your .46 I need it for NBA.

I looked it up...turns out I'm using .44 for NBA. Not sure why I thought it was higher. I feel like this is pretty accurate...I'm still not sure how accurate my NCAA multiplier is...still workin on that.
 

Member
Joined
Feb 23, 2007
Messages
583
Tokens
Thats the whole point. Your overall findings are not going to beat The Books opinion enough on a regular basis to beat the Vig, so instead of getting bogged down with reams of stats and hours of shoving a Pea around a plate use The books hard work to your advantage. At the end of the Day that will be the sharp line, they will be right more often than you so follow their lead, basically fading your own findings. I realise this is hard to do but either you want to win cash or become one of those statistical robots who cannot understand why they cant make the game pay. :drink:


While my formula was using FT% instead of the .4 value or w/e i should, i went 25-10 across the street(EOG) documented in College hoops and i haven't been keeping record in NBA but that is above 52% as well. Stats are a very important percentage of handicapping not 100% but very important. I need the most accurate math model i can come up with. Combining situational trends and having an advantage according to the math model wins and it has been for me.
 

Rx. Senior
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
7,744
Tokens
While my formula was using FT% instead of the .4 value or w/e i should, i went 25-10 across the street(EOG) documented in College hoops and i haven't been keeping record in NBA but that is above 52% as well. Stats are a very important percentage of handicapping not 100% but very important. I need the most accurate math model i can come up with.

Hope the luck continues but if the clouds start to darken just remember what Uncle Winbet said. :drink:
 

Member
Joined
Feb 23, 2007
Messages
583
Tokens
Hope the luck continues but if the clouds start to darken just remember what Uncle Winbet said. :drink:

Your help was appreciated! I'll keep an eye out for what the books are telling me but i will continue on my journey. :toast:
 

Back from the Ban
Joined
Oct 13, 2004
Messages
3,606
Tokens
I found an error in my spreadsheet and I'm going in to fix them.

I have found on the internet:

possessions = field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers + 0.4 * free throw attempts.

[SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1]Possessions = FGA - (OREB / (OREB + DDREB)) x (FGA - FGM) x 1.07 + TO + 0.4 x FTA

I'm also curious where that .4 number comes from because i have seen different values for this as well. Is this number just the average percent a team goes to the line in a game? Is there a way i could calculate this myself to make it more accurate instead of just stealing the constant? In my spreedsheet i was for some god awful reason using FT% instead of that .4 Simple mistake but I need to fix it with the most accurate way possible. Thanks. [/SIZE][/SIZE]

Basketballprospectus.com has it.
 

Rx. Senior
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
7,744
Tokens
Hey Bud, you get banned? How come they never ban any of the Idiots. :missingte:drink:
 

Back from the Ban
Joined
Oct 13, 2004
Messages
3,606
Tokens
Hey Bud, you get banned? How come they never ban any of the Idiots. :missingte:drink:

Winbet, according to many, I am an idiot. Combine that with the "opinion of young people crowd is automatically discounted" crowd, and there ya go.

How ya been winny?
 

Member
Joined
Feb 23, 2007
Messages
583
Tokens
I'll give out a free score prediction with the new numbers (Using .436)


Cleveland 89
Detroit 98


Hamilton's status is probable. If he plays, Detroit is the best bet to cover the -7.


Thanks RX guys!! Guess how many responses I got at EOG? ZERO!!! what a shitty site.
 

Rx. Senior
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
7,744
Tokens
Actually found the Game progressively harder the last year, getting Old will do that not to mention the Drink. Got Louisville for 15K to win championship so load up on NC tonight. Good to see you back :drink:
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,106,767
Messages
13,438,805
Members
99,337
Latest member
hbs_solutions
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com