4/2/2008
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]HOW THE SHARPS HANDICAP MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Baseball is the favorite sport of many old school sharps. It's not a high action sport with the public. But, it's one of those sports where you see the same regulars coming back to make bets year after year. Then, they sit around and watch the games on big screen TVs all day and night. They come back the next day and do it again.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]The fact that there are "long term" baseball bettors suggests that they're winning. There are no long term roulette players, because you can't beat roulette on purpose. If you've been betting baseball your whole life, you must be winning or you would have run out of money![/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]The guys who have had success for many years tend to focus on the same fundamentals:[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]They like to take underdogs whenever high priced teams are throwing one of their worst pitchers (the fourth or fifth guy in a division leader's rotation). [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Those two situations are probably the most common. Nevada sharps are constantly rooting against the very best teams because they know the value lies in going against who the public is betting on. To the degree the public bets this sport, they focus on big name high salaried teams who are supposed to win. That drives the price too high. Sharps come in and scoop up the value with aces on lesser teams, or by going against the weakest links on the top teams.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Sharps also like taking underdogs if a team has been playing well lately. Some have an uncanny sense for riding teams like Washington, Florida, or even Kansas City for a few days when things are going well with those teams. The public won't touch about a third of major league teams with a 10-foot pole. Sharps have a keen eye for when those teams have put some pieces together at a time when opponents aren't taking them seriously enough.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I also know some guys who have certain veteran pitchers they like going against. Last year a lot of guys liked to go against Barry Zito when he was favored. If a veteran is seen to have "lost his stuff" to a degree, these grizzled gambling veterans will know that before anyone else. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Favorite Sharp Underdog Plays on Opening Day: Pittsburgh (+) at Atlanta (going against the aging Glavine with the ace of Pittsburgh's staff), Kansas City (+) at Detroit (because the media keeps saying Detroit's going to be unbeatable), Texas (+) at Seattle (because Bedard had a shaky Spring). The first two won in nailbiters, but Texas couldn't get there. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I think the general public would be much better served spending more time handicapping totals. I'm always amazed how squares ignore totals...or just "bet the obvious" by taking the Under when they like a pitcher, or the Over when they like an offense. I can assure you, if you're betting the obvious in Las Vegas or Reno, you're taking the worst end of the proposition. Everything's shaded against the obvious. Always has been. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Favorite Sharp Total Plays on Opening Day: Houston/San Diego Under (Oswalt and Peavy in a low scoring park). This was really the only game I heard comments about. Sharps are careful on opening day because of weather factors, and because the starters won't be going as deep now as they will in a few weeks. You can always count on the weather in San Diego![/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]We've got several months to talk baseball. I'll go into more specifics regarding the strategies of these guys during the course of the season. For now, I wanted to outline the basics. I'd have to say the three keys involved with EVERY winning sharp I know are underdogs, totals, and line shopping. Now, the order might be reversed from guy to guy. Maybe a few focus heavily on shopping for lines, and aren't into totals. So much. I already mentioned that some guys really emphasize totals. The point is, you'll have trouble winning money in baseball if you're not cognizant of these three keys.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Try winning money by betting nothing but favorites. You'll have nice stretches where you catch some breaks. It only takes a few losing big favorites to kill that approach though. Always happens. Try grinding out a living while NOT shopping for the best numbers. For some guys, it's the difference between making a little and making a lot. In a down season, it's the difference between making money and breaking even. Professional wagerers don't like spending six months breaking even. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Some guys do okay without totals. Why pass on some of the most beatable propositions on the board though?[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]HOW THE SHARPS HANDICAP MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Baseball is the favorite sport of many old school sharps. It's not a high action sport with the public. But, it's one of those sports where you see the same regulars coming back to make bets year after year. Then, they sit around and watch the games on big screen TVs all day and night. They come back the next day and do it again.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]The fact that there are "long term" baseball bettors suggests that they're winning. There are no long term roulette players, because you can't beat roulette on purpose. If you've been betting baseball your whole life, you must be winning or you would have run out of money![/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]The guys who have had success for many years tend to focus on the same fundamentals:[/FONT]
- [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]UNDERDOGS
It's a grinder's way to play, but that's what works in this sport. You'll often here these guys say something like "I only have to hit 50% to win money." That's true of course. It exaggerates things a bit because they do play some smaller favorites too. But, the bread and butter of experienced baseball bettors is the underdog.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]They like to take underdogs whenever high priced teams are throwing one of their worst pitchers (the fourth or fifth guy in a division leader's rotation). [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Those two situations are probably the most common. Nevada sharps are constantly rooting against the very best teams because they know the value lies in going against who the public is betting on. To the degree the public bets this sport, they focus on big name high salaried teams who are supposed to win. That drives the price too high. Sharps come in and scoop up the value with aces on lesser teams, or by going against the weakest links on the top teams.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Sharps also like taking underdogs if a team has been playing well lately. Some have an uncanny sense for riding teams like Washington, Florida, or even Kansas City for a few days when things are going well with those teams. The public won't touch about a third of major league teams with a 10-foot pole. Sharps have a keen eye for when those teams have put some pieces together at a time when opponents aren't taking them seriously enough.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I also know some guys who have certain veteran pitchers they like going against. Last year a lot of guys liked to go against Barry Zito when he was favored. If a veteran is seen to have "lost his stuff" to a degree, these grizzled gambling veterans will know that before anyone else. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Favorite Sharp Underdog Plays on Opening Day: Pittsburgh (+) at Atlanta (going against the aging Glavine with the ace of Pittsburgh's staff), Kansas City (+) at Detroit (because the media keeps saying Detroit's going to be unbeatable), Texas (+) at Seattle (because Bedard had a shaky Spring). The first two won in nailbiters, but Texas couldn't get there. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]TOTALS[/FONT][FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]
There not as easy to beat as they used to be. But, many sharps still specialize in totals. In fact, a few guys almost look exclusively at totals because they think that's where the biggest edges are. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]I think the general public would be much better served spending more time handicapping totals. I'm always amazed how squares ignore totals...or just "bet the obvious" by taking the Under when they like a pitcher, or the Over when they like an offense. I can assure you, if you're betting the obvious in Las Vegas or Reno, you're taking the worst end of the proposition. Everything's shaded against the obvious. Always has been. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Favorite Sharp Total Plays on Opening Day: Houston/San Diego Under (Oswalt and Peavy in a low scoring park). This was really the only game I heard comments about. Sharps are careful on opening day because of weather factors, and because the starters won't be going as deep now as they will in a few weeks. You can always count on the weather in San Diego![/FONT]
- [FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]LINE SHOPPING
It might seem odd that guys who sit around watching games all day would have the ability to shop for the best lines. Believe me, they do. These guys have contacts all over the city, making sure they get the best available numbers on the underdogs and totals they like. And, they tend to camp out at the sportsbooks that most favor their approach. Different stores have different tendencies with how they price sides and totals. Veterans will camp out at the best spot, then have contacts at other places just in case something better pops up. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]We've got several months to talk baseball. I'll go into more specifics regarding the strategies of these guys during the course of the season. For now, I wanted to outline the basics. I'd have to say the three keys involved with EVERY winning sharp I know are underdogs, totals, and line shopping. Now, the order might be reversed from guy to guy. Maybe a few focus heavily on shopping for lines, and aren't into totals. So much. I already mentioned that some guys really emphasize totals. The point is, you'll have trouble winning money in baseball if you're not cognizant of these three keys.[/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Try winning money by betting nothing but favorites. You'll have nice stretches where you catch some breaks. It only takes a few losing big favorites to kill that approach though. Always happens. Try grinding out a living while NOT shopping for the best numbers. For some guys, it's the difference between making a little and making a lot. In a down season, it's the difference between making money and breaking even. Professional wagerers don't like spending six months breaking even. [/FONT]
[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]Some guys do okay without totals. Why pass on some of the most beatable propositions on the board though?[/FONT]
