MistaFlava's MLB WEDNESDAY ***Power Selections*** (Writeups & Analysis)

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MistaFlava's 2008 MLB Record: 2-3 (+2.20 Units)

Welcome all to another season of bases. I had a great record last season but do not have time to get into writeups and analysis until a few weeks from now when CBB is done for good. So until the CBB season is done I will be posting plays only with no explanation.

Enjoy the games and good luck this season!


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Wednesday, April 2



View attachment 4999 Detroit Tigers ML -168 (1 Unit) View attachment 4998

Bannister vs. Rogers

I am well aware that almost 80% of the betting public is all over the Tigers in this game and it does look like easy money in an afternoon game but the heavily backed public plays (Angels on Monday and Mets yesterday) have been crashing and burning in recent days so approach this with caution. Having said that, do you really think this stacked Tigers lineup is about to just show up here and lose two straight home games to the lowly Kansas City Royals? I don't think so. The Royals fought very had in the opener and somehow pulled off the win in extra innings and looking back on last season this team did have some success when playing in Detroit covering ML's of +191, +144 and +183 but going only 3-5 in those games. Again it has been ages since Kansas City walked into Detroit and managed to win two straight. On the mound for the Royals in this one is Brian Bannister who has won his last two games against the Tigers holding them to 3 ER's in 13 innings of work but losing 6-3 in his third and other start at the beginning of the season against these Tigers. Kenny Rogers on the other hand says he's ready to go despite his age and the veteran righty was responsible for two home losses to the Royals last season giving up 8 ER's in 12.1 innings of work. Having said that, I think this is a great spot for the offense of the Tigers to wakeup those bats and get their pitcher some runs regardless of how many he allows. Bannister was fantastic on the road last season as the team won 6 of his last 7 road starts and 9 of his last 11 starts versus American League Central opponents but I don't like the spot here. The Tigers are a whopping 11-1 in Kenny Rogers last 12 starts versus a team with a winning record (even though its only one game, its a winning record) and this team has managed to win 16 of his last 21 home starts making the odds here very juicy to take a sip of. I think Rogers is going to have decent control in this game and although he will allow runs, the offense will back him up and win this game.​

Trend of the Game: The Home Team is 17-4 in Chuck Meriweather's last 21 appearances behind home plate.​


Detroit 8, Kansas City 4​






View attachment 5002 Tampa Bay Rays ML -110 (3 Units) View attachment 4997

Garza vs. Cabrera

I cannot believe a Tampa Bay team is actually favored in a road game this early in the season but it has happened and how can you not like this matchup? I mean the Rays lineup showed on Monday that they can beat the best the Orioles have to throw at them in a 6-2 win in the opener of this series and the same should be applied tonight as I really like the pitching matchup advantage. After losing their first six games played in Camden Yards in 2007, Tampa Bay stormed back late in the season and beat the Orioles here in three out of four games. Matt Garza makes his Tampa Bay debut tonight which should be an interesting one after a so-so early career with the Minnesota Twins. Garza is 3-0 lifetime against Baltimore winning all three games he started against this team as a member of the Twins and allowing only 4 ER's in 16.2 innings of work which means he owns this team and should continue his dominance tonight. Daniel Cabrera is on the other side of the mound and he has also been very succesful pitching against the Rays in his career allowing only 4 ER's in his last 20 innings of work (three starts in total) against this Rays team. However, I just don't trust Cabrera at this time of the season, not against this lineup, not in this ballpark. Its rare that the Rays are ever favored against anybody but when they have been favored there has always been a reason as they are now 8-2 in their last 10 games as favorites. Other than that you would expect the Rays to lose a lot more games than they will this season but I think this is a good spot for them to make people believe that there is more to it this season for this team. Baltimore is one heck of a horrendous underdog to bet as they are 9-25 in their last 34 games as underdogs and they just can't be trusted. When Cabrera is an underdog there is also a reason as the team has won only 10 of the 39 times he has been an underdog and they are 0-4 in his last four home starts as an underdog (to go along with being 1-7 in his last eight home starts overall). I think Tampa Bay comes into this thing confident and Garza shows his new teammates that he was well worth it.​

Trend of the Game: Baltimore is 9-25 in their last 34 games as an underdog.​


Tampa Bay 9, Baltimore 5​






View attachment 5001 Los Angeles Dodgers ML -158 (3 Units) View attachment 5000

Lincecum vs. Billingsley

You know when people told me the San Francisco Giants were a bad baseball team I didn't really believe them but after watching these first two games of the season I can tell this team is going to struggle to score runs on each and every night which means that eventually their pitching will start to fall apart and the team doesn't stand a chance to make the playoffs. Having said that, I refuse to bet on the Giants ever again this season unless a) they are at home versus lefties or b) they have a distinct edge in the pitching matchup, something they have not had all series which is why I am fading them right here. The price looks really good and a lot of public bettors are going to like this but these two teams are so different and so far apart in terms of talent so I don't see the Giants winning. Lincecum is a promising young righty with some good stuff to work with but he has only seen this Dodgers lineup once and that was a 6-4 loss last season where he pitched very well but could not get the bullpen support or the run support he needed to pull off the win. Chad Billingsley on the other hand has been pretty damn good in his career versus the Giants despite lasting only one inning and allowing 4 ER's in his last start against this team back in September. Other than that he has pitched well against this lineup and I expect the offense to once again be behind him here regardless of how many runs he allows. Betting on the Giants as road underdogs is useless because they have won in this spot only 18 of their last 55 opportunities and this team is just not a team you want to have money on when they play away from home (counting last season they are 3-13 in their last 16 road games). They lost 4 of Lincecum's last 5 starts to end the season in 2007 and I don't know why anyone believes they won't pickup where they left off. Checkout the first two games...listless and lifeless. The Dodgers on the other hand are making quite the impression with Joe Torre at the helms and I am calling for the series sweep early in the season. The Dodgers have won 19 of their last 26 games as favorites and believe it or not Billingsley has been fantastic in game 3 of most series he has pitched as the team is 9-1 in his last 10 Game 3 starts. They are also 6-2 in his last eight starts and have won 10 of his last 14 home starts. I think you can pull out the brooms and count your winning in this one because I am calling for the SWEEEEEEEEEEEP!​

Trend of the Game: San Francisco is 3-13 in their last 16 road games.​


LA Dodgers 5, San Francisco 3​





:toast:​
 
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Your writeup for detroit looks like you want KC. Aging pitcher in Rogers is big Question against Bannister with good numbers. I am staying away from aging pitchers after getting burned with Pedro last nite
 

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Love your Detroit play as I have them for
$100 ML
$50 RL
and parlayed them for $50 with the Phills

Detroit is my big play of the day

Good Luck Flava
 

I'm sorry I'm not
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I was over Detroit from the beginning, but really like the D-Rays pick. The game will not be as high scoring as everyone thinks but the D-Rays will come out on top. Good Luck
 

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I don’t think MistaFlava should be called out for continually posting losing picks or having a bad day. Nor do I think he should be insulted for his write ups that he spends a lot of time creating (although he wants to be monetarily compensated for them). I happen to find most of his “angles” in his write-ups worthless (as they are predominantly data mining randomness trends that lack any qualitative sustainability), but I have always commended him for his effort.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p> </o:p>
Having said that, what he should be called out on is his continual effort to falsify his past performance and claiming “a great record” last season in baseball, when I proved to him the contrary last season on his posted plays (his actual ROI normalized and raw were actually worse than the negative vig ROI). Claiming otherwise is shenanigans and rather pointless, unless he is spinning it for potential profit (again).
 

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What he should be called out on is his INTEGRITY!!! He is charging people money for his picks yet he gives them out for free here????
Im im a customer im pissed!! If im not a customer, im questioning his integrity!!
 

aca

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-9.5 units day, but if next 10 units play win you will be in + again! %^_
 

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MistaFlava's 2008 MLB Record: 2-3 (+2.20 Units)

Welcome all to another season of bases. I had a great record last season but do not have time to get into writeups and analysis until a few weeks from now when CBB is done for good. So until the CBB season is done I will be posting plays only with no explanation.

Enjoy the games and good luck this season!


-------------------------------------------------




Wednesday, April 2



View attachment 4999 Detroit Tigers ML -168 (1 Unit) View attachment 4998

Bannister vs. Rogers

I am well aware that almost 80% of the betting public is all over the Tigers in this game and it does look like easy money in an afternoon game but the heavily backed public plays (Angels on Monday and Mets yesterday) have been crashing and burning in recent days so approach this with caution. Having said that, do you really think this stacked Tigers lineup is about to just show up here and lose two straight home games to the lowly Kansas City Royals? I don't think so. The Royals fought very had in the opener and somehow pulled off the win in extra innings and looking back on last season this team did have some success when playing in Detroit covering ML's of +191, +144 and +183 but going only 3-5 in those games. Again it has been ages since Kansas City walked into Detroit and managed to win two straight. On the mound for the Royals in this one is Brian Bannister who has won his last two games against the Tigers holding them to 3 ER's in 13 innings of work but losing 6-3 in his third and other start at the beginning of the season against these Tigers. Kenny Rogers on the other hand says he's ready to go despite his age and the veteran righty was responsible for two home losses to the Royals last season giving up 8 ER's in 12.1 innings of work. Having said that, I think this is a great spot for the offense of the Tigers to wakeup those bats and get their pitcher some runs regardless of how many he allows. Bannister was fantastic on the road last season as the team won 6 of his last 7 road starts and 9 of his last 11 starts versus American League Central opponents but I don't like the spot here. The Tigers are a whopping 11-1 in Kenny Rogers last 12 starts versus a team with a winning record (even though its only one game, its a winning record) and this team has managed to win 16 of his last 21 home starts making the odds here very juicy to take a sip of. I think Rogers is going to have decent control in this game and although he will allow runs, the offense will back him up and win this game.​

Trend of the Game: The Home Team is 17-4 in Chuck Meriweather's last 21 appearances behind home plate.​


Detroit 8, Kansas City 4​






View attachment 5002 Tampa Bay Rays ML -110 (3 Units) View attachment 4997

Garza vs. Cabrera

I cannot believe a Tampa Bay team is actually favored in a road game this early in the season but it has happened and how can you not like this matchup? I mean the Rays lineup showed on Monday that they can beat the best the Orioles have to throw at them in a 6-2 win in the opener of this series and the same should be applied tonight as I really like the pitching matchup advantage. After losing their first six games played in Camden Yards in 2007, Tampa Bay stormed back late in the season and beat the Orioles here in three out of four games. Matt Garza makes his Tampa Bay debut tonight which should be an interesting one after a so-so early career with the Minnesota Twins. Garza is 3-0 lifetime against Baltimore winning all three games he started against this team as a member of the Twins and allowing only 4 ER's in 16.2 innings of work which means he owns this team and should continue his dominance tonight. Daniel Cabrera is on the other side of the mound and he has also been very succesful pitching against the Rays in his career allowing only 4 ER's in his last 20 innings of work (three starts in total) against this Rays team. However, I just don't trust Cabrera at this time of the season, not against this lineup, not in this ballpark. Its rare that the Rays are ever favored against anybody but when they have been favored there has always been a reason as they are now 8-2 in their last 10 games as favorites. Other than that you would expect the Rays to lose a lot more games than they will this season but I think this is a good spot for them to make people believe that there is more to it this season for this team. Baltimore is one heck of a horrendous underdog to bet as they are 9-25 in their last 34 games as underdogs and they just can't be trusted. When Cabrera is an underdog there is also a reason as the team has won only 10 of the 39 times he has been an underdog and they are 0-4 in his last four home starts as an underdog (to go along with being 1-7 in his last eight home starts overall). I think Tampa Bay comes into this thing confident and Garza shows his new teammates that he was well worth it.​

Trend of the Game: Baltimore is 9-25 in their last 34 games as an underdog.​


Tampa Bay 9, Baltimore 5​






View attachment 5001 Los Angeles Dodgers ML -158 (3 Units) View attachment 5000

Lincecum vs. Billingsley

You know when people told me the San Francisco Giants were a bad baseball team I didn't really believe them but after watching these first two games of the season I can tell this team is going to struggle to score runs on each and every night which means that eventually their pitching will start to fall apart and the team doesn't stand a chance to make the playoffs. Having said that, I refuse to bet on the Giants ever again this season unless a) they are at home versus lefties or b) they have a distinct edge in the pitching matchup, something they have not had all series which is why I am fading them right here. The price looks really good and a lot of public bettors are going to like this but these two teams are so different and so far apart in terms of talent so I don't see the Giants winning. Lincecum is a promising young righty with some good stuff to work with but he has only seen this Dodgers lineup once and that was a 6-4 loss last season where he pitched very well but could not get the bullpen support or the run support he needed to pull off the win. Chad Billingsley on the other hand has been pretty damn good in his career versus the Giants despite lasting only one inning and allowing 4 ER's in his last start against this team back in September. Other than that he has pitched well against this lineup and I expect the offense to once again be behind him here regardless of how many runs he allows. Betting on the Giants as road underdogs is useless because they have won in this spot only 18 of their last 55 opportunities and this team is just not a team you want to have money on when they play away from home (counting last season they are 3-13 in their last 16 road games). They lost 4 of Lincecum's last 5 starts to end the season in 2007 and I don't know why anyone believes they won't pickup where they left off. Checkout the first two games...listless and lifeless. The Dodgers on the other hand are making quite the impression with Joe Torre at the helms and I am calling for the series sweep early in the season. The Dodgers have won 19 of their last 26 games as favorites and believe it or not Billingsley has been fantastic in game 3 of most series he has pitched as the team is 9-1 in his last 10 Game 3 starts. They are also 6-2 in his last eight starts and have won 10 of his last 14 home starts. I think you can pull out the brooms and count your winning in this one because I am calling for the SWEEEEEEEEEEEP!​

Trend of the Game: San Francisco is 3-13 in their last 16 road games.​


LA Dodgers 5, San Francisco 3​





:toast:​
:103631605:103631605:103631605:103631605:103631605:103631605:103631605:103631605:103631605:103631605:103631605:103631605:103631605:103631605:103631605:103631605
 

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Seriously, I think I am going to start fading his every play. I wish I would have started two years ago. He is the worst. Doesn't matter what he tries to cap. And people take him seriously because he writes volumes of specious nonsense.


All day, every day I do!
 

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