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Dreamin' Big
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It all turned around with a dream... literally.

Over a week ago I was sitting here posting my picks for the Oakland/Boston series in Japan. In game one, I took the over and got lucky. In game two, I got dumb and made stupid plays. I fell back and started looking at my account and the picks I had been posting on here, mainly the college basketball ones. And I realized that for some reason the picks I put up here were not doing nearly as good as my account was doing. Maybe I was picking the wrong plays to post? Maybe I was overthinking the plays I posted? I don't know.

So I decided no to post and just to worry about myself and my own pocket. Saturday night, right before I went to bed I was determined to take the Braves -1.5 for the Sunday night opener in Washington. I had nooo doubts that I was going to win and I even was thinking about posting the play. But when I woke up... I remembered a dream I had... and in that dream, the Nationals were winning 5-2 in the 7th inning against the Braves.... now some of you may know I've had numerous sports dreams and I've posted some up here. But I play them and they've won more than they've lost. So after this dream I decided to completely do a 180 and take the Nationals +1.5 which I got for even money right before the game started. The final score may not have been 5-2 Nationals, but it was 3-2 Nationals, not only did they cover, they also won the game outright.

And that set the path for where I stand today, at 10-2-2. Here are my plays since then...
3/30:
Was +1.5 - W
3/31:
Az ML - W
Cle -1.5 - W
Mets -1.5 - W
SD -1.5 - W
Hou/SD o7 - L
4/1:
Tor/NYY u9 - W
Mets/Fla o9 - P
LAA -1.5 - W (7 of the 8 games this night were 1 run games, only this one was decided by more than 1 run)
4/2:
Det -1.5 - L
Bos/Oak u8.5 - W
Az/Cin o8.5 - W
Tor/NYY u9 - W
Chi/Cle u9 - P


You don't have to give me credit for these or even believe them. Those are in the past just like the horrible plays I made for the second Japan game. Now we look ahead, but before we do, we look around therx and see the average records and some really bad ones.

Last April and May I went from betting $25 a game to laying $250 to win $100 on the Padres with Jake Peavy on the mound and ended mid-May up $5-$6,000. This year, we are off to another good start. And hopefully I will get to share it with you.

What's the secret? No secret. Just do the obvious: baseball is a game of numbers. So bet by playing the numbers. Matchups, injuries, momentum, etc., put all that together and you will come out a winner more often than you will come out a loser. All that being said, you still can put all the best info together, have a feel for a certain play, and it is the best play possible, but it can still end up being a loser, obviously. This is gambling, not math. There is no formula that will be right 100% of the time, or 90% of the time, or even 70% of the time. None. And if anyone tells you otherwise, 1) they're lying to you, 2) you're a moron for believing them.


All this being said, I'm going to start looking at the early games for Thursday now. If I see anything I like, I'll post. If not, so be it, we wait until the later games. I could go 3-1-1 today or I can go 1-4 today. And I know a MAJORITY of you would love to see the latter or worse so you can talk smack, and thats awesome. Just remember one thing, I'm not here to make fun of anyone or say I'm better than anyone in particular. I'm just here hoping my success continues and those who have helped me with winners before, and everyone else, can hopefully benefit from my plays now.
 

Dreamin' Big
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Got one that I like a lot:

Cubs ML -129

Rain is expected from 3PM CT (game starts at 1:20PM) until 1AM CT. I would be turned off by this play incase they're losing by a run in the 6th inning or later and the game gets called and we lose. But considering there is only a 30% chance of percipitation and only light rain is expected, this feary on rainy days is subsided.

Onto the game, Dempster is in a very good spot here. The Cubs offense has been pitiful aside from 3 home runs accounting for all 5 runs scored in the first two games. But in steps Dave Bush who hasn't faired well against the North Siders in his career (1-5) and Lou has already made a lineup change. Soriano is supposed to leadoff with Theriot batting 2nd. I'm not sure if this has been made official yet or not, but that lineup change probably won't mean much but it could get the lineup going if Soriano can lead an inning or two off with a hit and maybe even steal a base.

This is also probably the cheapest you'll get the Cubs at home for a while. Opened at -125 and it is already upto -134 at some places.
 

Dreamin' Big
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Another play that has caught my eye is the Twins even money.

Kevin Slowey has been reliable at the Metrodome (2-0, 3.41, 29 K, 4 BB in 34.1 IP) although in a small sample. Meanwhile, Ervin Santana seems to be horrified of closed stadiums (2-5, 8.93, 32 K, 25 BB, 69 H in 43.1 IP in domes) and his ERA during the day (5.81) is 1.40 runs higher than it is at night (4.41).

If I decide to make this an official play I'll do so early tomorrow afternoon.

Calling it a night.
 

New member
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Are you calling yourself a savior because a dream transformed you into a winner? Put down the PCP pipe bro. :smoker2:
 

Dreamin' Big
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Thank you all and GL to you guys also.

Making it official...

Minn ML -105
 

Dreamin' Big
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Minn ML is a loser
Slowey getting injured really ruined this game for us. He did yield 3 runs and left down by the same amount, but him leaving so early ruined the whole game for the pitching staff. Bass comes in and gives up 2 home runs in the 7th which would've been Neshek's, Rincon's, or Guerrier's if Slowey hadn't gotten injured and lasted just 6 measely innings. The Twins made it interesting but a loss isn't interesting at all.

Cubs looking decent. Hope they keep it going and bring it home to break us almost even for the day.

I'm working on a night game to put us up on the day. I'll have it posted soon.
 

Dreamin' Big
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Pit/Atl u9.5 (-120)
Zach Duke has been very impressive against the Braves, especially in Turner Field. A lot of people are very high on Mike Hampton and how he looks this year. Hoping for a pitcher's duel here obviously and I honestly don't see this game going over 6 if everything plays out the way it should.

I also had my eyes on the Yankees -1.5 but I don't know what to expect from Hughes who hasn't pitched enough, especially this early in the season.
 

Dreamin' Big
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Scary thing is I had someone else put the play in for me while I was at work and they didn't even notice that there was a pitching change. I didn't know either... I ended up winning but I know those who may have followed probably got no action so I won't count the under as part of my record.

Cubs ML -129 W
Twins ML -105 L
1-1, -0.05 on the day
 

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