Read that if you took game favorite and bet them +1.5 -190 or better you would win

Iceman · Apr 6, 2008

Can anybody verify this? Let me explain it a little better:

Your team has to be favored in the game (this could cause somewhat of a gray area but I make sure they are favored at all the bigger, sharper books) and then you must also be getting +1.5 on the runline which is not easy to find and you cant lay more than -190 juice on them.

From what I have gathered this is usually a team that starts out the day as the dog and than due to heavy betting is bet enough to become the favorite but the runline hasn't quite caught up with them. I have followed this the past 2 days and both games won. I followed it a little last year and noticed it did okay. The problem is you dont see this much at all if I remember correctly. Maybe a little more earlier in the year.

Last nite I grabbed Baltimore and I had Toronto with this on Friday. If Baltimore becomes the favorite today than they would easily qualify. I was reviewing some stuff I wrote down from the past few years and came across this and thought I should share it. I dont exactly remember who posted it but I would think it would be someone pretty knowledgeable or I dont think I would have written it down.

I just grabbed Baltimore +1.5 -150 (which is most likely better than most will get with this play) as they are now the favorite at Pinny but you should have no problem finding a -160ish Baltimore runline. Just seems like the runline has not caught up at all with the side on this type play. Keep your eyes open for this the rest of the year and if anyone else remembers hearing this or knows anything about it please post it. Thanks

Iceman · Apr 6, 2008

Look at it like this. In the Nationals game today if you bet Washington on the run line you are getting a +130 dog and now are getting +1.5 runs and you have to pay around 90 cents for it and so you are now -165 for +1.5, a +130 dog is now a -165 favorite.

If you take Baltimore today you are getting the small favorite of -106 and you are now getting +1.5 runs and are only paying about 60 cents for it. You are getting the game favorite and +1.5 runs and paying about -165. Looks to be about 60 cents paid for 1.5 runs.

Now when I think about it I am sure more posters know about this than I first thought. It does seem you dont hear much about this though but it makes all the sense from a math standpoint. This is why I think keeping a notebook from what you read on these forums and reviewing it peoridically helps and everyone that bets half way serious should do this, as you forget alot of things from season to season. I know I do.

Doug · Apr 6, 2008

sounds like a Cutter play.

Iceman · Apr 6, 2008

Doug said:
sounds like a Cutter play.

Heck Doug, it seems so simple I almost think I may have figured this out on my own:lol:

Doug · Apr 6, 2008

I say Cutter because I know he gets into +1.5 much more than most.

This is where you need Matchbook instead of 20 cent lines everywhere else.

Iceman · Apr 6, 2008

Doug said:
I say Cutter because I know he gets into +1.5 much more than most.

This is where you need Matchbook instead of 20 cent lines everywhere else.

I agee somewhat with you. I know I can find better numbers like my Baltimore +1.5 -150 at my slow book that has 20 cent lines than I can at Matchbook who I can guarnatee had that at least 10 cents higher but with 6 cents juice or so. But I know what you are saying. Matchbook is good for me when i have an opinion and not alot of time to line shop like my moneyburning Detroit Tiger bets i have made the past few days.

I would HIGHLY reccomend MB to 99% of the players that jump on the computer and bet for 5 minutes here or there but for what i do it is just too sharp for me to consistently beat.

As for Cutter. heard him say the other day that he doenst believe in betting favorites in the RL. Basically -1.5 +juice type plays. I may have to look that up and see how I have done with them in the past. I am 0-3 doing that so far this year. I was very surprised to hear him say that but I may not bet them anymore after he said that as try to mimmick what he is doing from a baseball standpoint and never knew this before.

Doug · Apr 6, 2008

I think more players lay -1.5 than take +1.5, so the line is slanted to screw the guys laying -1.5. I usually only do it on road team, if at all.

Is Cutter posting these days ( at LVA) ?

Santo · Apr 6, 2008

Cutter and another guy from LVA set up their own forum. beyond capping [dot] net.

Doug · Apr 6, 2008

Baker was the other

I think that forum died, though ?

I could get their NFL picks, but never could log into the forum.

Santo · Apr 6, 2008

Forum works fine for me

TomGshotput · Apr 6, 2008

In order to do this wouldn't you need either a slow moving book, or anticipate the line moving. In which case there are an aweful lot of possible ways to win

FairWarning · Apr 6, 2008

Lets look at tonight with your scenerio Ice. Why would take the White Sox +1.5 -145 when you could take the Sox -1.5 +235. If you are betting the dog, why take the dog laying odds? In fact I will start tracking some dog plays taking the reverse RL in the tracker forum.

royalfan · Apr 6, 2008

Iceman said:
Look at it like this. In the Nationals game today if you bet Washington on the run line you are getting a +130 dog and now are getting +1.5 runs and you have to pay around 90 cents for it and so you are now -165 for +1.5, a +130 dog is now a -165 favorite.

If you take Baltimore today you are getting the small favorite of -106 and you are now getting +1.5 runs and are only paying about 60 cents for it. You are getting the game favorite and +1.5 runs and paying about -165. Looks to be about 60 cents paid for 1.5 runs.

Now when I think about it I am sure more posters know about this than I first thought. It does seem you dont hear much about this though but it makes all the sense from a math standpoint. This is why I think keeping a notebook from what you read on these forums and reviewing it peoridically helps and everyone that bets half way serious should do this, as you forget alot of things from season to season. I know I do.

Ofcourse you are going to pay heavier on a road team as they keep batting in the ninth. Not even a remotely good comparison of numbers.

Iceman · Apr 6, 2008

royalfan said:
Ofcourse you are going to pay heavier on a road team as they keep batting in the ninth. Not even a remotely good comparison of numbers.

Not here to argue with anyone over this. Take it for what it is worth. I was just comparing, and used 2 games today to show you that you are paying 60 cents for this and it is wrong.

Toronto was at home on Friday, favored and was -170ish for +1.5. Just trying to share with others on this from a few math guys who win at baseball.

Hopefully a few here take it for what it is worth and we make some money this year with it when we see it. :103631605

Iceman · Apr 6, 2008

TomGshotput said:
In order to do this wouldn't you need either a slow moving book, or anticipate the line moving. In which case there are an aweful lot of possible ways to win

Not at all. I see these at Pinnacle and everywhere else. Though having a slow book may help in this like always. It is a common thing though so be patient it doesnt show up much if I remember correctly.

Iceman · Apr 6, 2008

FairWarning said:
Lets look at tonight with your scenerio Ice. Why would take the White Sox +1.5 -145 when you could take the Sox -1.5 +235. If you are betting the dog, why take the dog laying odds? In fact I will start tracking some dog plays taking the reverse RL in the tracker forum.

You completely lost me.:think2:

I am just telling you with my above example on games that happen once in a while like baltimore today that is the only one that was possibile. Tonites game is not a play with this.

Iceman · Apr 6, 2008

Doug said:
Baker was the other

I think that forum died, though ?

I could get their NFL picks, but never could log into the forum.

There forum is still there, you have to be accepted in and I think they only let a certain amount of people in.

royalfan · Apr 6, 2008

Iceman said:
Not here to argue with anyone over this. Take it for what it is worth. I was just comparing, and used 2 games today to show you that you are paying 60 cents for this and it is wrong.

Toronto was at home on Friday, favored and was -170ish for +1.5. Just trying to share with others on this from a few math guys who win at baseball.

Hopefully a few here take it for what it is worth and we make some money this year with it when we see it.

Would be interested to see what you come up with when comparing two home teams or two road teams, which would be a useful comparion, unlike this one. Just wanted to point out that that one was insignificant in every way, in case you missed that angle.

Doug · Apr 6, 2008

I did get accepted in ( I think). I used to get emails from them with NFL/NBA picks, and could log into picks, but never the forum.

I consider them to not exist.

how do they make money ?

FairWarning · Apr 6, 2008

Iceman said:
You completely lost me.:think2:

I am just telling you with my above example on games that happen once in a while like baltimore today that is the only one that was possibile. Tonites game is not a play with this.

I didn't read it close enough.