I wonder how much money you could make betting reverse r/l's....

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against the popular public teams like the Yankees, Mets, Tigers, and Red Sox. Obviously you would be doing well so far this year. Most times you can get odds of +250 or better. Tonight if you took the Chisox -1 1/2 runs, you get +235. I'm sure the Yankee, Red Sox, and Mets have been similar. Seems to me you'd only have to hit 2 out of every 7 games just to breakeven. So far you would have been 3-3 betting against the Yankees, 3-2 vs. Boston, 2-2 vs NYM, & 4-0 vs Detroit. That's a grand total of 12-7 or a net of $2300 for a $100 bettor. Not a bad start for the year. Obviously there are times that teams like these get on incredible winning streaks but you would still have to lose 23 straight just to be even had you done that for the season so far.
 
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I believe that this may be profitable vs the Yankees as their pitching isn't great. I hope you track this for a few weeks and look forward to seeing the results.
 

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against the popular public teams like the Yankees, Mets, Tigers, and Red Sox. Obviously you would be doing well so far this year. Most times you can get odds of +250 or better. Tonight if you took the Chisox -1 1/2 runs, you get +235. I'm sure the Yankee, Red Sox, and Mets have been similar. Seems to me you'd only have to hit 2 out of every 7 games just to breakeven. So far you would have been 3-3 betting against the Yankees, 3-2 vs. Boston, 2-2 vs NYM, & 4-0 vs Detroit. That's a grand total of 12-7 or a net of $2300 for a $100 bettor. Not a bad start for the year. Obviously there are times that teams like these get on incredible winning streaks but you would still have to lose 23 straight just to be even had you done that for the season so far.

You could also pair this with a martingale system. It's riskier, but with great risk come great rewards. Or an empty bank account :toast:
 

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Not crazy about the Martingale system. I've seen alot of people go broke with that one. This doesn't seem nearly as risky, but I'll chart it for a bit and see.
 

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What site do u get the rverse RL's from....it sounds like a good plan.
 

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ace-ace is pulling the martingale right now

http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=565315&page=17
^---one scary ass bet just to cover 10 bucks.

I've tailed some of his plays. I do something similar, but I triple my bet to cover the juice and I currently use 3 different books so I haven't reached the limit. Been going strong since September of last year. It's very stressful though. I've had to make some changes in my life which include not watching the games or sitting at the computer for countless hours, however it's been good to me. Up 11,250 since Sept. I don't post plays because it's pointless when doing the Martingale but the closest call I had was 6 games lost, but the good thing about tripling my bet is that I win more when I lose more games. Take it for what it's worth but if you have the capital, go for it.
 

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ARL (alternate run lines) can be very useful, but they're no more appropriate for "blanket use" against any one team or group of teams than is any other category of wager.

They fit best in places where you've fairly capped out an Underdog as a play and want to get increased value.

The average team will lose by 2+ runs in about 75% of their Losses.

That's about 50 games for a strong team and a bit more for weaker teams.
 

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What site do u get the rverse RL's from....it sounds like a good plan.

BetJamaica offers them. I suspect there are others that offer them also. As per the comment about "basically betting the dog"...you won't get anywhere near the spread doing that as you would doing the reverse run line. And as barman commented, if 75% of the game end in 2+ runs anyway, why not just go for the extra value and hope the dog doesn't win by just 1 run. I just think you would do better in the long run (especially in the American League).
 

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I didn't say what you think I said.

I noted that "75% of LOSSES" are by 2+ runs, which for most teams would be about 50-60 games.

That's 100-110 that are 2 run Losses, so they would therefore BEAT the arl

In short, +200 would be an "average" fair price. But to make a profit, you're still challenged with identifying the spots to hit it since in a Blanket strategy, you're going to lose about two out of three.
 

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Lest that last post sound discouraging, it's not meant to be. I'm pretty sure that I myself will see about 10% of my wagers this year be ARL
 

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I'm going to track some of them in the tracker forum.
 

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