Tigers+money (+150) in tomorrows match against the Bosox or are they going with the usual trend and pounding the favorite? Thinking plenty of value with the dog in this spot, but like to be on the books side most of the time. One of two I'm looking at for tomorrow. Philly is the other. Any thoughts on where the money will be?
No offense, but I disagree with this kind of thinking more than anything in baseball. Alot of my handicapping is based on preceived value, public value etc. Way too much to get into here, but the biggest reason people lose in baseball is the mindset that all you have to do is pick the winner. Price doesnt matter. They think it is much easier than basketball or football because you dont have to worry about the spread.
I know I wont win every bet. I just want to make bets that I feel should win at a bigger percentile than the odds. ie a -160 favorite should win 61.5% of the time. If I feel they should win 70% of the time I bet on them, if they should win 55% of the time, Im on the dog. Sorry to ramble. If this doesnt make sense, sorry. It is hard to explain in a couple of paragraphs.
books cant change the outcome by moving the spread.
whether you bet a game at -120, -150, or -250 ... every bettor gets paid out the same (either win or lose) based on the final score.
its a moneyline sport.
all they can do is adjust the juice.
in basketball or football, they can set a wide range of lines.
not so in baseball.
its either win ... or lose.
your risk/reward is all that matters.
books can want any side. thats all well and good. but they cant manipulate the 'spread' the way they can in non-ML sports.
trying to be a pseudo-sharp in baseball is a recipe for disaster.
Moon, as for you question, it is a good one. If I could figure out the public, I would bet a lot more overnight lines.
Its amazing to me how many people bet on teams with a losing streak and against teams on a winning streak. They just think they are due. I wise man once told me, "bet the due, and you are through". May sound silly, but has made me a better capper following that advise.
Its amazing to me how many people bet on teams with a losing streak and against teams on a winning streak. They just think they are due. I wise man once told me, "bet the due, and you are through". May sound silly, but has made me a better capper following that advise.
i understand what youre saying.
and i understand it because you are in it for the long term.
ostensibly, baseball is the easiest sport to handicap for a joe. just pick the winner, right? as we both know, old joe is in for a rude awakening down the road if he continues to lay heavy odds.
but in terms of isolating games, the line doesnt matter. every bet is paid the same. so the whole anti-public thing will get someone crushed because theyre not siding with the books the way they think they are.
bb is all money management and understanding nuances. not trying to take shortcuts and be a pseudo-sharp.
Moon. A lot of good comments here for you but no matter what you do, remember that when you bet on a big favorite, say -180 or so, if you lose that bet, you need to win the next two bets in a row just to be even again.
If you really like a big favs chances of winning, then parley them with another big fav you also like a lot. These parleys are the exact opposite of making a straight bet on a big favorite. Now if you lose your parley, you can also lose the next one before needing one win to be even again.
As a rule, if you lose two -200 favs in a row, you have lost 400 and then need to win your next four bets just to be even again. If you lose two $100 parleys in a row, you have lost 200, but just need to win your next bet to be even. Which would you rather have to do. Win four in a row to be even again or win just your next bet to be even. Trying to win a two team baseball parley with big favorites is nowhere near as hard as trying to win two team parleys in other sports.
Betting winning or losing streaks can either win you money or lose you money, depending on how you bet them. I have been playing the Detroit games because of their losing streak. After they lost their first two games in a row, I started to bet against them and as you know, they have lost four more games and the streak is still alive. That meant I, or bettors like Tomorrows Newspaper, have won our last four bets against Detroit.
Trying to guess when a streak will end, is a sure way to lose your money. I'm sure there were bettors who after Detroits fourth loss in a row, thought they were overdue to finally win a game and they bet Detroit would win their next game. And they bet the same way the game after that. Now these guys are 0-2 trying to guess when Detroit will finally win a game and anyone playing the way I do, won these same games betting against Detroit.
I plan to keep playing against Detroit until they finally win a game. This means I will lose my last bet, but until that happens who knows how many bets I'll win in a row betting against Detroit. I'm also betting against Colorado for the same reason.
Moon, I know this doesn't answer your question about being against the public, but I think how you play streaks and how you play big favorites is just as important, if not more so, than trying to guess who the public is playing. But then, what do I know. I played the Giants today.
If you really like a big favs chances of winning, then parley them with another big fav you also like a lot. These parleys are the exact opposite of making a straight bet on a big favorite. Now if you lose your parley, you can also lose the next one before needing one win to be even again.
As a rule, if you lose two -200 favs in a row, you have lost 400 and then need to win your next four bets just to be even again. If you lose two $100 parleys in a row, you have lost 200, but just need to win your next bet to be even. Which would you rather have to do. Win four in a row to be even again or win just your next bet to be even. Trying to win a two team baseball parley with big favorites is nowhere near as hard as trying to win two team parleys in other sports.
Betting winning or losing streaks can either win you money or lose you money, depending on how you bet them. I have been playing the Detroit games because of their losing streak. After they lost their first two games in a row, I started to bet against them and as you know, they have lost four more games and the streak is still alive. That meant I, or bettors like Tomorrows Newspaper, have won our last four bets against Detroit.
Trying to guess when a streak will end, is a sure way to lose your money. I'm sure there were bettors who after Detroits fourth loss in a row, thought they were overdue to finally win a game and they bet Detroit would win their next game. And they bet the same way the game after that. Now these guys are 0-2 trying to guess when Detroit will finally win a game and anyone playing the way I do, won these same games betting against Detroit.
I plan to keep playing against Detroit until they finally win a game. This means I will lose my last bet, but until that happens who knows how many bets I'll win in a row betting against Detroit. I'm also betting against Colorado for the same reason.
Moon, I know this doesn't answer your question about being against the public, but I think how you play streaks and how you play big favorites is just as important, if not more so, than trying to guess who the public is playing. But then, what do I know. I played the Giants today.
