Jake's "Living under a bridge" Picks - MLB April 9th

JakeT. · Apr 9, 2008

A bridge is what I'll be living under if these don't start hitting. Not really, but they are pretty bad. Tiny winning day last time out though.

Record: 12-17 -5.18 Units
2 Unit Plays: 2-0

My AL Lines:

LAA -130, 9 Pk
Detroit -112, 9 Pk
Toronto -145, 8.5 Pk
TB Pk, U9 -115
Texas -140, 11 Pk
KC Pk, U8.5 -115
ChW -160, U9 -115

Bets:

Detroit Tigers +110
Detroit/Boston Under 9.5 -105
Pitchers: Bonderman/Lester

Bonderman has pitched very well against the Red Sox the last few years and Boston isn't hitting like normal. Detroit is having issues offensively as well but they should be able to crush lefties and now is a good time to turn around that slump. Lester is a good pitcher but still isn't dominant yet. These teams are struggling to hit but Detroit has the edge in starting pitching. Let's just hope they are up by enough runs that Todd Jones steers clear of warming up.

Baltimore Orioles +140
Baltimore/Texas Over 10 -110
Pitchers: Trachsel/Gabbard

Trachsel is crap but Texas hasn't hit well this season and if freaking Brian Burres can dominate them, well Trachsel could be okay here. Even if he's not, which is very possible, Gabbard should get hit hard. He is not a stud pitcher and his opener against the Angels only inflated the value here. The Orioles are hitting well, especially against lefties, and I see them knocking Gabbard out early. Look for a high scoring contest which is anyone's to win at the end.

rjt721 · Apr 9, 2008

You really think Bondy should be favored at Fenway?

JakeT. · Apr 9, 2008

rjt721 said:
You really think Bondy should be favored at Fenway?

I do. I think the Red Sox are going to be the most overvalued team this season. I also think it's a real possibility they miss the playoffs entirely.

austintx05 · Apr 9, 2008

good luck jake, but I will back the Brinks truck up if Bondy is a road fav right now...

JakeT. · Apr 9, 2008

Some NL Lines:

LAD -120, U8 -120
CHC Pk, 9.5 Pk
Was -115, 9.5 Pk
Mets -140, 9 Pk

Bets:

LAD/Arizona Under 9 -115
Pitchers: Kuroda/Owings

DBacks are a below average offense and their first time seeing Kuroda won't be fun. He'll deal. Owings started off the season great and had no trouble with the Dodgers last season. Plus the Dodgers aren't hitting anyway. Under city baby!

Florida Marlins +120
Pitchers: Olsen/Bergmann

Olsen needs some work but Bergmann is no gem either. Offenses are similar. Washington has a bullpen edge but I'd give a tiny edge in starters to Florida. This is closer to a +100 game at +120. Can't lay off the value.

JakeT. · Apr 9, 2008

austintx05 said:
good luck jake, but I will back the Brinks truck up if Bondy is a road fav right now...

I called for a few guys to emerge as excellent starters before this season and Bonderman was one of them. McGowan and Matsuzaka were two others. None of them has dissapointed me yet. I think Bonderman deals. 7.1 IP, 6 hits, 2 walks, 2 ERs, 5 Ks. Something like that.

rjt721 · Apr 9, 2008

jakethompson said:
I also think it's a real possibility they miss the playoffs entirely.

I think that's very possible as well. However, what advantages do the Tigers have in this game that would justify them being favored at Fenway? Boston's offense isn't performing particularly well, but the truth is they're a mediocre offense on the road. That's not the case at home. Obviously Boston's bullpen edge is quite significant, and without Granderson, Detroit's offense is nowhere near the juggernaut many expected. That leaves Bonderman v. Lester. You think Bondy's edge is that distinct over Lester to warrant the Tigers, as they're presently constituted, to be the favorite at Fenway?

jakethompson said:
Bonderman has pitched very well against the Red Sox the last few years

Really? He's 0-3, 5.73/1.41/.287 in his career at Fenway.

jakethompson said:
they should be able to crush lefties and now is a good time to turn around that slump.

If you think they will "crush lefties," why are you also playing the under?

It's an interesting game. There are probably quite a few that are hopping on the Sox just based on Detroit's horrific play to start the season. Just as many, however, will likely make a play on the Tigers for the simple fact they deem an 0-8 start to the season unlikely. That probably leaves the line about where it should be.

I'm not trying to be critical, I just disagree with your assertion that the Tigers should be the favorite.

Good luck with these.

rjt721 · Apr 9, 2008

jakethompson said:
I called for a few guys to emerge as excellent starters before this season and Bonderman was one of them.

I see. This is where we differ, as I think the complete opposite of Bonderman.

JakeT. · Apr 9, 2008

rjt721 said:
I think that's very possible as well. However, what advantages do the Tigers have in this game that would justify them being favored at Fenway? Boston's offense isn't performing particularly well, but the truth is they're a mediocre offense on the road. That's not the case at home. Obviously Boston's bullpen edge is quite significant, and without Granderson, Detroit's offense is nowhere near the juggernaut many expected. That leaves Bonderman v. Lester. You think Bondy's edge is that distinct over Lester to warrant the Tigers, as they're presently constituted, to be the favorite at Fenway?

Really? He's 0-3, 5.73/1.41/.287 in his career at Fenway.

If you think they will "crush lefties," why are you also playing the under?

It's an interesting game. There are probably quite a few that are hopping on the Sox just based on Detroit's horrific play to start the season. Just as many, however, will likely make a play on the Tigers for the simple fact they deem an 0-8 start to the season unlikely. That probably leaves the line about where it should be.

I'm not trying to be critical, I just disagree with your assertion that the Tigers should be the favorite.

Good luck with these.

Answering questions... in no particular order.

Lester isn't ready yet and Detroit should be able to crush lefties with that lineup of theirs. Detroit has the advantage in starting pitching and offensive potential. Bullpen is definitely Boston but hopefully Jones doesn't see the light of day.

I agree with you about the home/away splits for Boston and am aware of it. That being said, they can't hit Bonderman at home or on the road historically (other than one game).

As far as your stats of him in Fenway, they are kinda skewed. 5 years ago he had a horrible starts where he gave up 7 runs in 2 innings, but other than that I am showing his other 3 starts at the Green Monster he has given up 7 earned runs in 20.1 innings, or an ERA of 3.13. His best start in Fenway came last year where he went 8 innings and only gave up 2 earned runs. Matter of fact, in the last two seasons he has pitched against Boston three times and only given up 6 earned runs in 23.1 innings for an ERA of 2.34.

If you throw away that one horrible game that Bonderman had back when he was a youngster, the stats look vastly different. More importantly, the recent stats are most telling.

As far as the "crush lefties" and the "under" question, I am playing the under because Bonderman should pitch well against the Red Sox and because Detroit is having some issues offensively and Lester isn't a horrible pitcher. When I say crush lefties, I'm talking about their entire season, not just any and all lefties. Lester is good enough not to get completely rocked but I don't feel he is good enough to dominate completely here.

5-3 Tigers. Total is just too high. If it were half a run lower with the same vig, I wouldn't be on it.

Hope that helped answer some of the questions. Best of luck tomorrow.

Betallsports · Apr 9, 2008

Jake BOL tomorrow with your Plays.

The Only thing that bothers me about the Detroit play is that, as a Team
the Tigers are 5-18 in the last 23 games at Boston.

With that said, and the way Detroit has been playing. I couldn't back them right now.

I just might stay away from this game. Because your other points are on the Money.

silver7 · Apr 9, 2008

Go To BJ

total 10 on Det/Sox. BTW Lester IS ready 5/3 Sox. Can`t play Tigers now. Never play a "streak" to end. Like this total a lot.

LittleBuddha · Apr 9, 2008

jakethompson said:
Some NL Lines:

LAD -120, U8 -120
CHC Pk, 9.5 Pk
Was -115, 9.5 Pk
Mets -140, 9 Pk

Bets:

LAD/Arizona Under 9 -115
Pitchers: Kuroda/Owings

DBacks are a below average offense and their first time seeing Kuroda won't be fun. He'll deal. Owings started off the season great and had no trouble with the Dodgers last season. Plus the Dodgers aren't hitting anyway. Under city baby!

Florida Marlins +120
Pitchers: Olsen/Bergmann

Olsen needs some work but Bergmann is no gem either. Offenses are similar. Washington has a bullpen edge but I'd give a tiny edge in starters to Florida. This is closer to a +100 game at +120. Can't lay off the value.

Dbacks are currently the number one scoring team in the league. They have scored twice as many runs as the Dodgers.

cashflowmatters · Apr 9, 2008

I would not advise any plays on Detroit until they show improvement, just my opinion.

JakeT. · Apr 9, 2008

Little Buddha said:
Dbacks are currently the number one scoring team in the league. They have scored twice as many runs as the Dodgers.

They've done most of the damage against horrible pitchers though. The Dodgers have faced a much tougher schedule for opposing starters, all in pitchers' parks. The DBacks have played 6 of their 8 games in hitters' parks against much poorer starters and one of their non-hitter park games was against Esteban Loaiza who you and me could whack doubles off of. I just don't think the stats tell the entire story here.

JakeT. · Apr 9, 2008

More NL lines:

Mil -140, O9.5 -112
StL Pk, U9 -115
SD -140, U9 -120

Bets:

St Louis/Houston Under 9.5 -105
Pitchers: Looper/Sampson

Looper and Sampson both looked excellent in their season debuts and neither one of these offenses is hitting that well. Looper had no issues with Houston on numerous occasions last season and Sampson pitched decently enough against the Cardinals. Getting a half run and saving 10 cents off my line is just too much value for me to lay off.

PS, I am not touching the Braves/Rockies game. Too many weird things happening. Braves forgetting how to hit being the main one. No idea what to think of Coors right now.

dice711 · Apr 9, 2008

GET IN THERE!!!!!

4-1, nice night pho sho.

MackDonald · Apr 10, 2008

Nice work Jake. Some people will never realize how hard it is to live [under a bridge] not to mention the working conditions.

Keep up the good work and best of luck.

Mack donald

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