Who wins the AL WEST?

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With Lackey's questionable return, No Escobar, and KRod's rapidly declining ankle (injured since late last year and not healing), are they still the prohibitive division favorites? To me, it seems clear that BOS, NYY, TB, TOR, CLE, AND DET are all better than any team in the west. Oakland could take this division with 85 wins.
 

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Seattle.

Once Putz gets healthy and the team gets into shape, they will take the division. We have a great starting rotation, solid lineup, and the bullpen proved last year they can be solid.

So long as the bullpen gets into a groove they'll easily take the division.
 

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Lackey is not really a question mark IMO. He will be as good as he usually is by June at the latest.
 

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Seattle.

Once Putz gets healthy and the team gets into shape, they will take the division. We have a great starting rotation, solid lineup, and the bullpen proved last year they can be solid.

So long as the bullpen gets into a groove they'll easily take the division.

By Great Rotation, you mean 2 very good starters and nobody else.
By Solid lineup, you really mean "worst lineup in the American league".
Bullpen is average.

Oakland takes this.
 

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By Great Rotation, you mean 2 very good starters and nobody else.
By Solid lineup, you really mean "worst lineup in the American league".
Bullpen is average.

Oakland takes this.

Sounds like you just described oakland...

Angels are still easily the best
 

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Angels...

If they need another arm...they have the resources to go out and make a trade.

The A's will not be buyers in June/July, when it becomes clear that they need help.
 

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budworth, youre normally on point with a lot of your stuff. but youre way off with seattle's rotation.

washburn is about as dependable a #3 starter as you could ask for. he's slotted perfectly. he's not a dominant 1/2, but he's a lot better than the 4/5 starters around the league. batista also slotted nicely as a 4. silva is a gas can, but its hard to get picky when youre talking about 5th starters. overall, mariners probably have one of the best top to bottom rotations in the majors. the lineup, as you pointed out though, leave a lot to be desired. the heart of the order is tying up a ton of payroll and not giving anything in return.
 

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Cleveland just went 2-4 against the A's and Angels. Detroit is 1-7. The A's also just took 2 and looking for the sweep against the Jays. Also, Seattle is 2-0, looking for the sweep against the Rays....but it is clear that the Jays, Rays, Indians and Detroit are better than anyone in the West?

Ill still take the Angels.
 

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budworth, youre normally on point with a lot of your stuff. but youre way off with seattle's rotation.

washburn is about as dependable a #3 starter as you could ask for. he's slotted perfectly. he's not a dominant 1/2, but he's a lot better than the 4/5 starters around the league. batista also slotted nicely as a 4. silva is a gas can, but its hard to get picky when youre talking about 5th starters. overall, mariners probably have one of the best top to bottom rotations in the majors. the lineup, as you pointed out though, leave a lot to be desired. the heart of the order is tying up a ton of payroll and not giving anything in return.

Prodigy, I have to disagree with your assessment. Let's review their performance over their last 400 innings each.

WASHBURN- Fielding-Independent-Component-ERA: 396 Innings at 4.85. Terrible. Awful. Then consider what they pay him.

BATISTA: 4.56 over his last 407 Innings. (Not bad for a #4). I would take him as my #4 starter, because he does eat innings at a reasonable ERA. Contrast that to Washburn, who gives the same performance any decent AA pitcher could put up. I don't like Washburn eating terribly pitched innings.

SILVA: 5.05 over his last 401 Innings. 5th Starter, again, this is a horrible waste of money. Why pay someone even one million dollars to take the ball every 5th day and give you a component era north of 4.75?? Doesn't that just seem stupid?
 

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Cleveland just went 2-4 against the A's and Angels. Detroit is 1-7. The A's also just took 2 and looking for the sweep against the Jays. Also, Seattle is 2-0, looking for the sweep against the Rays....but it is clear that the Jays, Rays, Indians and Detroit are better than anyone in the West?

Ill still take the Angels.

Sample Set? google it.
 

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What's your sample set? Last year?

Yes, and previous years, and regression models. You're basing your analysis on a 9 game season to this point.

Add in the fact that KRod is gone, likely headed for season ending surgery, escobar is gone for good, and Lackey is gone until late May...

You are losing 475 Extremely quality innings, which the Angels are unable to fill. Also, Garret Anderson is being relied on to power their offense.

The Angels will still likely win the West, but it will be difficult. They would finish 5th (of 6) if they were in the AL EAST, and would finish 3rd (maybe maybe 4th) in the Central.
 

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All due respect...BUT...

There is some bad information in this thread.

http://losangeles.angels.mlb.com/ne...t_id=2507673&vkey=news_ana&fext=.jsp&c_id=ana


"After the game Wednesday, the Angels announced that Rodriguez was examined by orthopedic foot and ankle specialist Dr. Phil Kwong, who concluded that Rodriguez's MRI was negative and that the diagnosis is a sprained right ankle that will keep Rodriguez listed as day-to-day."

I guess Kwong did his residency at the Zoo.
 

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All due respect...BUT...

There is some bad information in this thread.

http://losangeles.angels.mlb.com/ne...t_id=2507673&vkey=news_ana&fext=.jsp&c_id=ana


"After the game Wednesday, the Angels announced that Rodriguez was examined by orthopedic foot and ankle specialist Dr. Phil Kwong, who concluded that Rodriguez's MRI was negative and that the diagnosis is a sprained right ankle that will keep Rodriguez listed as day-to-day."

I guess Kwong did his residency at the Zoo.

Rodriguez has been hurt since late last year. Here is the report. The injury did not heal in the off-season. To protect their long-term investment, the Angels could very likely shelve him, especially if it means avoiding serious arm issues due to altered mechanics. It's not as if he if very effective right now.

Friday, April 04, 2008

Keep Watch Over K-Rod’s Ankle Injury

Posted by Chris Neault at 4:56am

It is reported today that Francisco Rodriguez has been struggling with an ankle injury since late 2007, and it is believed to be causing him pain that is leading to him altering his mechanics while on the mound. This ankle injury was never really talked about last season, so he must have kept it a secret.

Looking at his 2007 splits on a month-by-month basis, it appears that the injury could have occurred in July or August.

July: 9.1 IP, 8 H, 5 BB, 10 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, .235 BAA
August: 13.0 IP, 10 H, 8 BB, 14 K, 3.46 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, .200 BAA
September: 10.2 IP, 7 H, 7 BB, 17 K, 2.53 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, .184 BAA

While these numbers don't look so bad, especially the batting average allowed and strikeout totals, you have to understand how ridiculously good his career numbers have been. For reference, here are his career numbers:

July: 61.2 IP, 75 K, 2.63 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, .196 BAA
August: 63.2 IP, 76 K, 2.26 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, .181 BAA
September: 74.2 IP, 116 K, 1.93 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .167 BAA

Wow. The discrepancy is easy to see now, is it not? Clearly, something was affecting the pitching performance of K-Rod.

According to Lyle Spencer of MLB.com: Francisco Rodriguez (ankle) said he has been using a more compact delivery to soften the landing of his left ankle that has been giving him problems.
"Before, I used to be more open, swinging my leg around. I'm trying to take a little pressure off my left ankle. It's been really painful after every outing. That's because my delivery was so violent. The trainers [Ned Bergert and Rick Smith] have been doing a great job with exercises, putting tape on it. As long as I do my treadmill—exercises to make it stronger—I'll be fine. It's not a big deal. I just have to make sure not to land so hard. It's the only change I've made. Now [the delivery] is more on a line, not toward first base. Now it's quick, short, let it go," Rodriguez said.​

The problem with changing your mechanics due to a foot problem is that your body coordinates movements based on information it receives from other body parts, particularly your feet, eyes, and spine. Your feet are your body's primary interaction with the ground, and when your ankle is injured, and you are landing differently, you are going to throw differently because your body is going to recruit the stabilizing muscles of your spine, shoulder, hips, etc. in a different manner—or not at all. The body is not going to be stabilized properly. The nervous system picks up on the pain, and creates a "new" way for your body to move. This can lead to further pathology and injury.

If his ankle is still bothering him, and is changing how he is throwing, you can easily see how there would be concern for injury to other body parts, particularly his shoulder or elbow, or perhaps something else.

Be very cautious here. It may sound like an innocent problem, but all K-Rod owners should have Shields and Speier on speed dial in case he starts complaining of shoulder soreness or stiffness as a result of his altered mechanics. If last season's splits are any indication—and they very well may be—K-Rod could be in for a very down year.
 

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I dont disagree with your opinion, I just dont think you can make a decisive determination yet based on this season's results and especially not based on last year or the year before's results.

I just dont see how projecting baseball divisional winners can be "clear" to anyone at this point of the season. Please post all your division winners so we can all make lots of money on future bets. Im not trying to be an ass, Im just saying no one predicts the divisional winners at this time. Maybe you get a couple but I dont know of anyone that can consistently pick all the playoff teams.
 

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I dont disagree with your opinion, I just dont think you can make a decisive determination yet based on this season's results and especially not based on last year or the year before's results.

I just dont see how projecting baseball divisional winners can be "clear" to anyone at this point of the season. Please post all your division winners so we can all make lots of money on future bets. Im not trying to be an ass, Im just saying no one predicts the divisional winners at this time. Maybe you get a couple but I dont know of anyone that can consistently pick all the playoff teams.

I did post my division bets earlier in the year. I think it was in the main forum. You should search for it.

They were:
BOS
CLE
ANA (before I knew of Lackey, Krod, and Escobar Injuries)
NYY Wildcard

NYM
CHN
ARI
MIL (Wild Card)

I still like all of those, though I now hesitate on Anaheim. They stand to lose between 300 and 475 of their best possible pitched innings. Replace that with fill-in scrap heap fodder, and you substantially impact their projection.
 
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Angels.

Look for Hunter to have a career year. I expect them to have a huge run averaging 8-10 runs per game sometime during the season.
 

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<table class="pv_table" summary="Individual player stats table"><tbody><tr><th class="Center">Year</th><th class="Center">Tm</th><th class="Center">Lg</th><th class="Center">G</th><th class="Center">PA</th><th class="Center">AB</th><th class="Center">R</th><th class="Center">H</th><th class="Center">2B</th><th class="Center">3B</th><th class="Center">HR</th><th class="Center">RBI</th><th class="Center">SB</th><th class="Center">CS</th><th class="Center">SB%</th><th class="Center">BB</th><th class="Center">K</th><th class="Center">BA</th><th class="Center">OBP</th><th class="Center">SLG</th><th class="Center">TB</th><th class="Center">SH</th><th class="Center">IBB</th><th class="Center">HBP</th><th class="Center">GDP</th><th class="Center">OPS</th></tr> <tr> <td class="Center">2004</td><td class="Center">MIN</td><td class="Center">AL</td><td class="Center">138</td><td class="Center">569</td><td class="Center">520</td><td class="Center">79</td><td class="Center">141</td><td class="Center">37</td><td class="Center">0</td><td class="Center">23</td><td class="Center">81</td><td class="Center">21</td><td class="Center">7</td><td class="Center">75.0%</td><td class="Center">40</td><td class="Center">101</td><td class="Center">.271</td><td class="Center">.330</td><td class="Center">.475</td><td class="Center">247</td><td class="Center">0</td><td class="Center">4</td><td class="Center">7</td><td class="Center">23</td><td class="Center">.805</td></tr> <tr> <td class="Center">2005</td><td class="Center">MIN</td><td class="Center">AL</td><td class="Center">98</td><td class="Center">416</td><td class="Center">372</td><td class="Center">63</td><td class="Center">100</td><td class="Center">24</td><td class="Center">1</td><td class="Center">14</td><td class="Center">56</td><td class="Center">23</td><td class="Center">7</td><td class="Center">76.7%</td><td class="Center">34</td><td class="Center">65</td><td class="Center">.269</td><td class="Center">.337</td><td class="Center">.452</td><td class="Center">168</td><td class="Center">0</td><td class="Center">3</td><td class="Center">6</td><td class="Center">8</td><td class="Center">.788</td></tr> <tr> <td class="Center">2006</td><td class="Center">MIN</td><td class="Center">AL</td><td class="Center">147</td><td class="Center">611</td><td class="Center">557</td><td class="Center">86</td><td class="Center">155</td><td class="Center">21</td><td class="Center">2</td><td class="Center">31</td><td class="Center">98</td><td class="Center">12</td><td class="Center">6</td><td class="Center">66.7%</td><td class="Center">45</td><td class="Center">108</td><td class="Center">.278</td><td class="Center">.336</td><td class="Center">.490</td><td class="Center">273</td><td class="Center">0</td><td class="Center">2</td><td class="Center">5</td><td class="Center">19</td><td class="Center">.826</td></tr> <tr> <td class="Center">2007</td><td class="Center">MIN</td><td class="Center">AL</td><td class="Center">160</td><td class="Center">650</td><td class="Center">600</td><td class="Center">94</td><td class="Center">172</td><td class="Center">45</td><td class="Center">1</td><td class="Center">28</td><td class="Center">107</td><td class="Center">18</td><td class="Center">9</td><td class="Center">66.7%</td><td class="Center">40</td><td class="Center">101</td><td class="Center">.287</td><td class="Center">.334</td><td class="Center">.505</td><td class="Center">303</td><td class="Center">0</td><td class="Center">10</td><td class="Center">5</td><td class="Center">17</td><td class="Center">.839</td></tr></tbody></table>
I look for Hunter to continue to do what he has done for the past 4 years. He has been remarkably consistent at being an above average center fielder and an above average hitter, but by no means a superstar. Looking at those OPS numbers and seeing the money they blew on him is sickening. I also look for him to cost the team a ton of outs because Anaheim loves to run and Hunter is a shitty base stealer. 30 of 45? That is counter-productive, and is not debatable. Anything less than 73ish percent is not worth it.
 

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