A Way to Beat My Bookie...Help me out please

fuloser

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• Apr 10, 2008

• #1

My bookie isn't reallllly a bookie. I mean, he doesn't take moneylines and only takes closing lines...with that said. I devised a plan which could work.

I've been looking on bodog for the final lines, and the over under lines that are -120 or more, basically win $ every night excluding the juice, im talking straight up wins. I know you all wish you had a bookie this easy, but my point is, would it be profitable if i take these bets every night for like a few units (just the ones 120 and greater) and play them? He does ALL BETS as a -110 juice on it...my question rather, is...would this be profitable; does anyone have stats on these odds on a monthly basis or for the season if they end up winning straight up?

Tonight the -120 over/unders were I believe 4-0 on bodog, with 1 more pending which looks like another winner.

To summarize:

I have a stupid bookie

He takes all plays as -110 juice

im asking: would it be profitable to play all the baseball over/unders that vegas lays at -120 or more, since my bookie only takes it at 110....anyone have stats to confirm this? THANKS

 

bigbookie

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• #2

overtime if you play smart with your money and you feel these plays with the higher juice win more then you lose then go for it-although I would caution you bc these plays dont hit very good all the time

 

Budworth22

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• #3

YES. Especially if the play is uniform across multiple sports books. BoDog is mainstream, but they still cater to the recreational customer to the extreme. This does and will work. Good luck.
​

 

fuloser

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thats the stat im looking for...it would make sense that these win more than they lose, only so much so to pay off that juice...point is though, i dont get that high juice, i still get at 110 no matter what, so i'm thinking i may have found a treat here.

 

Budworth22

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fuloser said:

thats the stat im looking for...it would make sense that these win more than they lose, only so much so to pay off that juice...point is though, i dont get that high juice, i still get at 110 no matter what, so i'm thinking i may have found a treat here.

Click to expand...

If you beat a juice number by 10 cents on a total, play it. Long term worst you do is break even.

 

Gator627

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I wouldnt use Bodog lines. They inflate their favorite lines a lot. Just look at the live odds listed here in the RX. Bodog favorites are higher than anyone other book.

 

fuloser

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Yea that makes sense...ill try it out tomorrow see how it does, right now its 4-0 in full game o/u and like 6-5 for 5th inning...

 

fuloser

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Well gator, he takes final bodog lines as his lines...so that's what I'm looking at...

 

fuloser

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Now 5-0 with the Padres Under...looks like a great plan...is there any place i could actually look up previous lines on this and see how it did in the past?

 

Gator627

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• #10

fuloser said:

Well gator, he takes final bodog lines as his lines...so that's what I'm looking at...

Click to expand...

So he will look at bodog and see a team -150 and still give it to you for -110??

:lol:

You found the golden goose.

 

Budworth22

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Gator627 said:

So he will look at bodog and see a team -150 and still give it to you for -110??

:lol:

You found the golden goose.

Click to expand...

Only totals.

 

bigbookie

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• #12

fuloser said:

Now 5-0 with the Padres Under...looks like a great plan...is there any place i could actually look up previous lines on this and see how it did in the past?

Click to expand...

i dont think it is possible to look them up

 

fuloser

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True, well i guess I'll keep track...

And yea it's only totals...

Bigbookie, you killin it so far man...i have such little experience in MLB i think i might tail ya...

NBA Playoffs though, can't wait for that shit...thats $$ every year.

 

quinnsft34

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• Apr 10, 2008

• #14

Gator627 said:

I wouldnt use Bodog lines. They inflate their favorite lines a lot. Just look at the live odds listed here in the RX. Bodog favorites are higher than anyone other book.

Click to expand...

Isn't that why you have BODOG as an out? Dogs are a man's best friend especially at BODOG. I like to have them as an out because of that. Also my local puts his lines out early when there are day games and doesn't adjust them when one line moves big time so I can get both sides if I'm paying attention and not to drunk. Hope this makes sense since I'm drunk now.