[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM LAS VEGAS
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SHARPS VERY HAPPY WITH EARLY BASEBALL RETURNS[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]As a general rule, you can guess at the mood of Las Vegas and Reno baseball sharps by how well the New York Yankees are doing. The Yankees are always overpriced because the public loves to bet on them. So, Wise Guys pretty much bet against the Yankees every day.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I thought it would be interesting to give a general run through of the sharps response to the first week and a half of MLB action. There have been some good surprises, and some bad surprises. Let's take it division by division.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]AL EAST
I already told you the sharps were happy about the Yankees playing .500 ball in their first eight games. The sharps are actually very surprised about Baltimore's hot start. They expected nothing from this team. Most expected them to be the worst team in the American League, and maybe the whole majors. I know some guys who lost early by going against Baltimore at what they thought were cheap prices. Most importantly, I don't know of anybody who's been cleaning up with them. Often a hot ugly dog is making somebody rich. Expectations were so low that this just wasn't a team people were going to invest much in.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Boston has become another version of the Yankees in terms of prices. Sharps generally go against Boston. They learned to hate Boston last year in the playoffs because they Sox kept winning even though pro wagerers thought the lines were too high. Boston is also off to a 4-4 start. Since most of that was on the road though, it's basically no harm no foul. If Boston has a great homestand, the sharps are going to get hurt. Just think of Boston as another Yankees right now, and assume pro bettors are going against these teams almost every time they take the field.[/FONT]
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AL CENTRAL
Detroit was a team entering the season with a lot of public expectations. Sharps like fading that...assuming the public will over bet the team that's "supposed" to be a juggernaut. That's worked like a charm so far. I know guys who went against Detroit on every game of their 0-6 homestand last week! Oddsmakers were treating Detroit like a new version of the Yankees...but the aging players couldn't get anything going early. I'd say the main reason sharps are happy with baseball right now is that they picked up so much profit with Detroit's losing streak. Take that away, and everyone's close to even. Note that Detroit was down over 11 units for the year after their Tuesday loss in Boston. An 0-7 record in the standings was more like 0-11 in money. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]There's not much talk about the rest of the group. The sharps were on Kansas City and the Chicago White Sox in Detroit, but haven't been on those teams much otherwise. The White Sox got on the "go against" list after their championship season, and haven't gotten off yet. Kansas City is a young team the sharps want to take. A poor weekend in Minnesota discouraged them. [/FONT]
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AL WEST
Most sharps I know were looking to go against Seattle this year. But, they didn't want to bet on Baltimore. That attitude hurt them over the weekend. Seattle's been okay outside of the Orioles series. I do expect the sharps to be against the Mariners once divisional play begins. They think this team is overrated. Many bet Under on the season victory total props we discussed a couple of weeks ago. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]It's wait and see for the rest of the division. There's skepticism about Oakland, and optimism about Texas. The bettors are waiting to see something on the field that really confirms those impressions though. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I haven't talked about totals yet. I can tell you that guys have been playing a lot of Unders in the American League. Scoring is way down early. That's partly because of the Yankees offensive slump, and cold weather across much of the country. The combination of Detroit's losing streak plus a lot of Unders has made this a very strong opening for pro bettors in American League games. Let's see what's been happening in the Senior Circuit. [/FONT]
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NL EAST
The Mets are close to joining the Yankees on the "go against" list for sharps. The public loves betting New York teams, especially when those teams have been picked to win playoff spots by the media. It's just automatic. The oddsmakers price them like they're 110-victory teams. They're not![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]But, New York did win its early games in Florida, which took away some of the fire for pounding opponents of the Mets. That's too bad for their sake, because the Mets lost four straight after leaving Florida! I do know a lot of guys who had the Phillies at Shea Stadium Tuesday afternoon. I expect money to continue coming in on road dogs against the Mets this year. The consensus is that's going to be a money maker over 81 games. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I'm sensing a "wait and see" attitude with the other teams. Either Philly or Atlanta could become a popular betting team if they get hot. The sharps expect somebody besides the Mets to make a run here. They're waiting to find out who it's going to be. [/FONT]
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NL CENTRAL
You're probably figuring out by now that the key to the sharp betting approach is to find overpriced teams and go against them. That's obviously a running theme so far. The Chicago Cubs are the logical entrant from this division. The media picked them as the probable winner...and the public loves rooting for the Cubbies. Fading the Cubs has been so-so thus far. The season is still young though.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]St. Louis has started much hotter than the sharps expected. I know many guys who expected a disaster this year for the Cards. Opening the season with slumping Colorado and Washington helped. When the schedule toughens up, we may see some sharps lining up against the Cardinals. The enthusiasm for that approach has softened needless to say. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
NL WEST
The interesting team here is the San Francisco Giants. It was understood that they would be bad. Many guys thought there had been an overreaction though, and bet the Giants early figuring they would be a value team. NOBODY could be as bad as people thought the Giants would be! It turned out the Giants really did look that bad early on. Enthusiasm for betting the Giants was gone by the end of their first series. We may see money on Cain and Lincecum, two quality young starters. Otherwise, this is a team bettors are leaving alone. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Colorado was a natural fade team because they were coming off a surprise league championship. The problem is, the Rockies just aren't a public team. The lines were where they were supposed to be, rather than inflated against the champs. The slow start didn't make sharps as rich as they had hoped. But, a lot of guys did have a nice weekend when Arizona swept the Rockies.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]That's everybody, and it's mostly good news! The bad news is more about opportunities missed rather than bad bets or bad beats. All that and the Kansas victory over Memphis as a 2-point underdog have brightened the mood considerably for professional wagerers the past few days. They've made a lot of money so far in baseball, and the season is just under way.[/FONT]
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SHARPS VERY HAPPY WITH EARLY BASEBALL RETURNS[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]As a general rule, you can guess at the mood of Las Vegas and Reno baseball sharps by how well the New York Yankees are doing. The Yankees are always overpriced because the public loves to bet on them. So, Wise Guys pretty much bet against the Yankees every day.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]If the Yankees are red hot, the sharps are losing big.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]If the Yankees are losing, the sharps are winning big...really big![/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]If the Yankees are around .500, then the sharps are grinding out a profit. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I thought it would be interesting to give a general run through of the sharps response to the first week and a half of MLB action. There have been some good surprises, and some bad surprises. Let's take it division by division.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]AL EAST
I already told you the sharps were happy about the Yankees playing .500 ball in their first eight games. The sharps are actually very surprised about Baltimore's hot start. They expected nothing from this team. Most expected them to be the worst team in the American League, and maybe the whole majors. I know some guys who lost early by going against Baltimore at what they thought were cheap prices. Most importantly, I don't know of anybody who's been cleaning up with them. Often a hot ugly dog is making somebody rich. Expectations were so low that this just wasn't a team people were going to invest much in.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Boston has become another version of the Yankees in terms of prices. Sharps generally go against Boston. They learned to hate Boston last year in the playoffs because they Sox kept winning even though pro wagerers thought the lines were too high. Boston is also off to a 4-4 start. Since most of that was on the road though, it's basically no harm no foul. If Boston has a great homestand, the sharps are going to get hurt. Just think of Boston as another Yankees right now, and assume pro bettors are going against these teams almost every time they take the field.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
AL CENTRAL
Detroit was a team entering the season with a lot of public expectations. Sharps like fading that...assuming the public will over bet the team that's "supposed" to be a juggernaut. That's worked like a charm so far. I know guys who went against Detroit on every game of their 0-6 homestand last week! Oddsmakers were treating Detroit like a new version of the Yankees...but the aging players couldn't get anything going early. I'd say the main reason sharps are happy with baseball right now is that they picked up so much profit with Detroit's losing streak. Take that away, and everyone's close to even. Note that Detroit was down over 11 units for the year after their Tuesday loss in Boston. An 0-7 record in the standings was more like 0-11 in money. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]There's not much talk about the rest of the group. The sharps were on Kansas City and the Chicago White Sox in Detroit, but haven't been on those teams much otherwise. The White Sox got on the "go against" list after their championship season, and haven't gotten off yet. Kansas City is a young team the sharps want to take. A poor weekend in Minnesota discouraged them. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
AL WEST
Most sharps I know were looking to go against Seattle this year. But, they didn't want to bet on Baltimore. That attitude hurt them over the weekend. Seattle's been okay outside of the Orioles series. I do expect the sharps to be against the Mariners once divisional play begins. They think this team is overrated. Many bet Under on the season victory total props we discussed a couple of weeks ago. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]It's wait and see for the rest of the division. There's skepticism about Oakland, and optimism about Texas. The bettors are waiting to see something on the field that really confirms those impressions though. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I haven't talked about totals yet. I can tell you that guys have been playing a lot of Unders in the American League. Scoring is way down early. That's partly because of the Yankees offensive slump, and cold weather across much of the country. The combination of Detroit's losing streak plus a lot of Unders has made this a very strong opening for pro bettors in American League games. Let's see what's been happening in the Senior Circuit. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
NL EAST
The Mets are close to joining the Yankees on the "go against" list for sharps. The public loves betting New York teams, especially when those teams have been picked to win playoff spots by the media. It's just automatic. The oddsmakers price them like they're 110-victory teams. They're not![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]But, New York did win its early games in Florida, which took away some of the fire for pounding opponents of the Mets. That's too bad for their sake, because the Mets lost four straight after leaving Florida! I do know a lot of guys who had the Phillies at Shea Stadium Tuesday afternoon. I expect money to continue coming in on road dogs against the Mets this year. The consensus is that's going to be a money maker over 81 games. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I'm sensing a "wait and see" attitude with the other teams. Either Philly or Atlanta could become a popular betting team if they get hot. The sharps expect somebody besides the Mets to make a run here. They're waiting to find out who it's going to be. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
NL CENTRAL
You're probably figuring out by now that the key to the sharp betting approach is to find overpriced teams and go against them. That's obviously a running theme so far. The Chicago Cubs are the logical entrant from this division. The media picked them as the probable winner...and the public loves rooting for the Cubbies. Fading the Cubs has been so-so thus far. The season is still young though.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]St. Louis has started much hotter than the sharps expected. I know many guys who expected a disaster this year for the Cards. Opening the season with slumping Colorado and Washington helped. When the schedule toughens up, we may see some sharps lining up against the Cardinals. The enthusiasm for that approach has softened needless to say. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
NL WEST
The interesting team here is the San Francisco Giants. It was understood that they would be bad. Many guys thought there had been an overreaction though, and bet the Giants early figuring they would be a value team. NOBODY could be as bad as people thought the Giants would be! It turned out the Giants really did look that bad early on. Enthusiasm for betting the Giants was gone by the end of their first series. We may see money on Cain and Lincecum, two quality young starters. Otherwise, this is a team bettors are leaving alone. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Colorado was a natural fade team because they were coming off a surprise league championship. The problem is, the Rockies just aren't a public team. The lines were where they were supposed to be, rather than inflated against the champs. The slow start didn't make sharps as rich as they had hoped. But, a lot of guys did have a nice weekend when Arizona swept the Rockies.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]That's everybody, and it's mostly good news! The bad news is more about opportunities missed rather than bad bets or bad beats. All that and the Kansas victory over Memphis as a 2-point underdog have brightened the mood considerably for professional wagerers the past few days. They've made a lot of money so far in baseball, and the season is just under way.[/FONT]
